The Week 13 edition of the NCAA Football Mid-Major Betting Report is ready to go! It's the fourth year for this article at Doc's Sports. The goal of this weekly piece is to attempt to show that specialization can be a profitable betting strategy. For the mid-major betting report, we follow one team throughout the season and make selections on their games on a weekly basis. Temple was picked this year because of the intrigue surrounding the conference as well as their ability to have a breakout season with a lot of returning talent. They've broken out in a bigger way than anyone could have predicted!
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In the first three years of the mid-major betting report, we had some tremendous results. In those three years combined, the selections went 18-12 and the profit for $100 per game bettors was $1,590. Last year's report was a totally different story. We followed the Akron Zips last season, and I never got a good read on the Zips. The result was a 3-8 season with a loss of $1,180.
I'll follow Temple Owls beat writers and listen to the team's press conferences for interesting points to bring up in these articles. I'll also use a variety of sources to look for important information about the team on Twitter. There will be a selection at the end of each article on the game. We'll be using the Doc's Sports Unit Betting System for every pick, which will allow readers to follow along and track the results.
I would argue that last week's 31-12 win over Memphis was Temple's most impressive victory so far this year. Temple's defense had been struggling in recent weeks, but the Owls held a Memphis offense that had been averaging 43.7 points per game to just four field goals on the day. Temple had 461 yards of total offense.
Temple's defense put together a gem of a game against a future NFL quarterback in Paxton Lynch. Lynch attempted 34 passes and finished with only 156 passing yards. Memphis couldn't get anything going on the ground, either. They averaged just 2.2 yards per carry.
Temple had three running backs who finished with 12 or more carries, and they ran for 200 yards overall in the game. P.J. Walker threw for 261 on only 26 attempts, so he was ultra-efficient.
If there was a negative to the game it was Temple's two turnovers compared to zero turnovers for Memphis. Still, the fact that Temple won 31-12 despite losing the turnover battle by two shows how dominant they were. Also, Temple only had one penalty in the win.
My selection on Temple +1.5 was a winner.
Notes of Interest
-If Temple wins this weekend against UConn, the Owls will win the American Athletic East and play in the conference title game next weekend. They can also win the AAC East if South Florida loses to UCF, but that's very unlikely to happen, and Temple wants to control their own destiny.
-According to Desmond Conner of the Hartford Courant, UConn starting quarterback Bryant Shirreffs is considered day-to-day for UConn's game at Temple this Saturday. If Shirreffs isn't able to go, Tim Boyle will get the start for the Huskies. UConn Tight end Tommy Myers is officially out for this game.
-Mike Kern of the Philadelphia Daily News wrote an interesting piece this week on Temple still wanting to make history. The Owls players say they know they are doing big things already this year, but they don't want any part of a disappointing finish. Temple went 2-10 in 2013, so regardless of what they do the rest of the way it's been a great year, but it has a chance to be special. Tyler Matakevich and P.J. Walker have been the leaders of this team, and both of them agree that the hard times this team went through a couple years ago have made them what they are today. Temple's senior class wants to have a legacy of creating a winning environment. Temple's football program has registered only one 10-win season, and they sit at 9-2 going into this weekend.
-Tyler Matakevich has 107 tackles this year. He has registered more than 100 tackles in four different years. He's only the fourth player in college football history to do so.
-UConn is 7-19-1 against the spread in their last 27 road games.
-The Huskies are 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a win.
-Temple is 6-2 ATS in their last eight conference games.
-The 'under' is 6-0 in the last six meetings between these two teams.
UConn vs. Temple College Football Odds
The Temple Owls opened as a 12-point favorite in this one. The line has been steady at 12 points so far this week. The posted total opened at 43.5 points. There has been significant movement in the total. Currently, the total sits at 41.5 points.
UConn vs. Temple College Football Picks
The UConn Huskies are scoring 19.1 points per game and allowing 19.1 points per game. UConn's defense is the strength of their team. Temple's defense is the strength of their team as well. The two-point drop in the posted total has taken away some of the value, but I still believe the best play here is the under. UConn's defense makes it hard to lay 11 points against them. At the same time, Temple is playing very well and I don't want to go against them in this spot. At the opener, this would have been a 2-Unit play, but at 41.5 I'll take the under for one-unit.
Pick #155- 1-Unit- Play on UConn/Temple under 41.5
Season Results- 8 Wins 4 Losses (+$650)
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