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NFL Survivor Pool Picks and Advice: Week 4

by Matt Severance - 9/30/2015

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck

While Week 2 in the NFL was full of Survivor Pool-altering upsets, Week 3 was quite chalk. Seattle and New England were huge favorites, and both covered. The Seahawks made my Bears look like a JV team as Chicago punted on every single possession, an NFL first in at least 35 years. Seattle was my top recommendation last week and I'm sure the choice of many people. And those that didn't take the Seahawks most likely took the Patriots, who destroyed Jacksonville. Now that Pats are on a way-too-early bye week (with Tennessee).

I did miss on my Upset of Week 3 as I thought a desperate Lions team would beat visiting Denver as long at Matthew Stafford played, but while Stafford did the Lions weren't very competitive. It's already hockey season in the Motor City (and the Windy City; well, once the Cubs are finished).

​Seven teams -- Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, Cincinnati, Denver, Green Bay and New England -- remain undefeated as the NFL enters Week 4. Obviously, the Patriots will stay that way into Week 5. Since 1990, when the current playoff format was adopted, 93 of the 124 teams (75 percent) to start 3-0 have qualified for the postseason. Meanwhile, also since 1990, 67 teams with a losing record after the first three games made the playoffs.

Here we go for Week 4. Again, first team listed is the choice.

Top Choice Of Week

Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville: I may switch off this by Sunday. The Colts still make me nervous as they barely won in Tennessee last week. Something is still off there. And my other concern with this pick is it will easily be the top choice in all leagues. But Indy has won five straight vs. Jacksonville and hasn't lost a home AFC South game since Week 3 of the 2012 season.

Pretty Confident

Miami vs. NY Jets (Sunday in London): This is one of those awesome 9:30 a.m. ET starts, so basically a reason to crack open a cold one before noon and not leave the couch until around midnight. Yeah, I'm single as you can probably tell! If Dolphins players don't like Coach Joe Philbin, they probably will lose this game knowing he's a goner on Monday.

Atlanta vs. Houston: Are the Falcons the only team where their receiver is the most important player? Quite possible. Julio Jones has been just a freak thus far. He leads the league in receptions (34) and receiving yards (440), having posted three consecutive games with at least 135 yards to start the season. Jones would tie a league record if he posted a fourth consecutive game with at least 135 yards. Good luck covering him, Houston.

Cincinnati vs. Kansas City: This has the slight feel of a trap game for the Bengals, who might be feeling a bit too good about themselves at the moment at 3-0, with Baltimore at 0-3 and the Steelers without Big Ben for 4-6 weeks. The AFC North is Cincinnati's. Plus, the Bengals might be peeking ahead to next week's big game with Seattle. But the Chiefs are on a short week, so that should cut down any chances of an upset.

San Diego vs. Cleveland: If you have Chargers rookie running back Melvin Gordon on your fantasy team, make sure he's in the lineup Sunday. The Browns have allowed a league-high 475 rushing yards already. I also think we see Johnny Manziel in place of Josh McCown at some point in this one.

Arizona vs. St. Louis: Carson Palmer for NFL MVP? He's in the conversation with New England's Tom Brady, Packers' Rodgers and the Falcons' Jones. The Cardinals have destroyed three subpar opponents thus far. Meanwhile, that Nick Foles trade isn't working out all that well for the Rams.

Denver vs. Minnesota: The Vikings look like one of those teams this year that will be nearly unbeatable at home but a wreck on the road. And there are few tougher places to win than Denver.

Seattle vs. Detroit: There's a question whether the Seahawks will have running back Marshawn Lynch, but it shouldn't much matter. The Lions defense isn't close to what it was last year. And the offense has gotten progressively worse each game. Second straight shutout vs. NFC North team for Seattle?

Could Go Either Way

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (Thursday): If this were in Baltimore, I might go with the Ravens as my top choice considering they are utterly desperate at 0-3 and don't have to face Ben Roethlisberger but instead Michael Vick. But in a rivalry game like this, anything can happen, even with a backup QB.

Buffalo vs. NY Giants: I'd actually stay away from this game as it's not clear if Buffalo will have either No. 1 running back LeSean McCoy (although I'd argue Karlos Williams is No. 1 right now) or top receiver Sammy Watkins.

Philadelphia at Washington: The Redskins are decent when they run the ball but not when Kirk Cousins has to beat an opponent. The Eagles are No. 8 against the run. Washington might get back former Eagles receiver DeSean Jackson from a hamstring injury here.

Oakland at Chicago: The Bears already have begun the fire sale, trading linebackers Jared Allen and Jon Bostic and releasing safety Brock Vereen. Keep cleaning house GM Ryan Pace! With the first pick in the 2016 draft, which is in Chicago again, the Bears select Cal QB Jared Goff. By the way, this is the first time Oakland is a road favorite in three years.

Tampa Bay vs. Carolina: Yep, I'm calling it: Lovie Smith gets his first home win with the Buccaneers. Panthers are a bit banged up on defense.

Upset Of Week

San Francisco vs. Green Bay: Yes, the Packers look fantastic and they simply aren't going to ever lose at home because Aaron Rodgers is simply otherworldly there. But it's a short week and trip across country here. Colin Kaepernick has had success against the Pack before.

Why Bother?

New Orleans vs. Dallas: Normally a great matchup between Drew Brees and Tony Romo, but now it likely will be Luke McCown and Brandon Weeden. There's still a chance that Brees plays, but the Saints are hot garbage right now.

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