Super Bowl Player Props Odds and Predictions: Shopping for the Best Proposition Lines
by Dave Schwab - 1/21/2015
One of the best things about the Super Bowl is the opportunity to wager on any number of proposition bets that the various sportsbooks release odds for surrounding the NFL's biggest game of the year. However, before you run off and bet a ton of cash on these types of wagers, it's probably in your best interest to shop the odds with a few of your favorite books.
One of the most popular Super Bowl props to bet on is which player is going to be named the game's Most Valuable Player. This year's tight matchup makes things extremely interesting given just how close the current spread is. This works to eliminate the inherent edge that the favored team would have since the winner of this award is always from the winning team.
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Looking back at the past results for Super Bowl MVP all the way back to 1999, the winning team's quarterback was named MVP in 10 of the last 16 games, so a bet on a quarterback for this year's game would probably make the most sense.
New England quarterback Tom Brady is the odds-on favorite at Bovada at +160. He is also the favorite at BetOnline at +150, and his odds to win MVP are the best on the board with Sportsbook.ag at +160.
If you think that Seattle is going to win this year's Super Bowl then you might want to look at its quarterback, Russell Wilson, as your top play for MVP. His betting odds with Bovada are +350, which are also the same as his odds with BetOnline. Wilson's odds to win MVP with Sportsbook.ag are +300.
The Seahawks also have a very viable candidate for MVP in running back Marshawn Lynch. The value in his odds starts to separate a bit with the three books with Bovada listing him as a +400 third-favorite as compared to +325 betting odds with BetOnline and +450 betting odds with Sportsbook.ag.
I happen to like the Patriots' chances to win this game, so I am going with the slightly longer odds that Rob Gronkowski comes up big to become the first player in Super Bowl history to be named MVP at the tight end position. To maximize the value, I can go with either Bovada or BetOnline at +900 betting odds. Gronk's odds with Sportsbook.ag are listed at +750.
Player to Score the First Touchdown
Another popular player prop for the Super Bowl is betting on which player scores the first touchdown of the game. While Bovada has yet to post its betting odds for this prop, we can still shop the numbers with the other two books.
The player at the top of the list with either book is Marshawn Lynch. His betting odds to score the first touchdown of the game are +600 with BetOnline, but they drop to +500 with Sportsbook.ag.
My choice for MVP just so happens to be the second-favorite with both books to score the first touchdown in this matchup. Gronkowski's odds with BetOnline are +700, and his odds with Sportsbook.ag are +550.
I am going to go in a different direction with my pick for this player prop by going with Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount. He proved to be the go-to guy in last Sunday's AFC title game with three rushing touchdowns. Seattle's defense was ranked first in the NFL against the pass this season, so New England may look to run the ball more, especially in the Red Zone. Blount offers some solid value with BetOnline at +1000 as compared to his +750 odds to score the first touchdown with Sportsbook.ag.
Player to Score a Touchdown Anytime
Another great player prop to bet on since it can have multiple winners is scoring a touchdown in the Super Bowl. Going with the same rationale that I used for my first touchdown pick, I am going with Blount to score a touchdown at +120 betting odds with BetOnline. This is a great example of why it is important to shop betting odds considering that his odds to score a touchdown with Sportsbook.ag are -110.
If you are looking for slightly better odds in this prop, then you might want to considera play on Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson. He scored six rushing touchdowns in the regular season, and he added another one in the win against Green Bay in the NFC title game. His betting odds to score a touchdown in the Super Bowl are +175 with BetOnline, but they actually jump to +190 with Sportsbook.ag.
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Read more articles by Dave Schwab
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