NCAA Basketball Betting 3-Point Play: Three Interesting March 1 Opening Lines

by Alan Matthews - 2/29/2016

Unfortunately, I don't work for any of multi-billionaire Warren Buffett's companies. You see, the Berkshire Hathaway CEO announced on Monday an Ultimate Office Bracket Contest. Any employee in any of his companies who gets every pick right for the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament wins $1 million a year for life. Obviously getting all those right is unlikely, but the employee with the most correct picks through the Sweet 16 will also win $100,000. Maybe I can temp at a Dairy Queen or something for a week? Two years ago, Buffett partnered with Quicken Loans to offer $1 billion to anyone who picked a perfect overall bracket. The odds of that? One in 9.2 quintillion, and obviously no one did so.

No. 4 Virginia at Clemson (+3.5)

ACC game at 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU. Could be a big-time letdown game for Virginia (22-6, 11-5) as the Cavs beat No. 7 North Carolina 79-74 on Saturday. Malcolm Brogdon had a game-high 26 points to go with six rebounds and three assists. Brogdon was named one of 11 finalists for the Oscar Robertson Trophy on Monday as the USBWA's national player of the year. He was a finalist last year, too. That win kept UVA in contention to at least share the ACC regular-season title. It is a game behind UNC and Miami. The Cavs finish the regular-season at home against Louisville on Saturday night, and the Cards will treat that like their Final Four because they are ineligible for postseason basketball.

Clemson (16-12, 9-7) has fallen off the NCAA Tournament bubble. That's because the Tigers lost at unranked Georgia Tech 75-73 last Tuesday, their second straight bad defeat. This will be Senior Night at Clemson as it's the team's final home game. The Tigers have won on Senior Day in nine of their past 10 attempts, not counting 2013-14 when Clemson did not have a senior on its roster. A win would be Clemson's school-record eighth at home in ACC play. And it would probably get the Tigers back on the bubble. Clemson hasn't beaten a Top 5 team since 2008-09. It lost at No. 13 Virginia 69-62 on Jan. 19. Brogdon had 20 points. Clemson allowed Virginia to shoot 54.3 percent and was outrebounded 32-21.

Key trends: The Cavs are 6-1 against the spread in their past seven vs. teams with a winning record. They have failed to cover their past five at Clemson, however. The Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their past seven after a loss.

I'm leaning: Virginia (but not super confident about it).

No. 22 Kentucky at Florida (+2.5)

SEC matchup tips at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. It's a must-have game for Florida, which is currently listed among ESPN's "Last Four In" for the Big Dance. Frankly, that seems overly generous considering the Gators are 17-12 overall and 8-8 in a weak conference. UF has just one win over a ranked team, coming against Big 12 school West Virginia. The Gators lost their third straight on Saturday, 96-91 at fellow bubble team LSU. Florida shot 55 percent for the game, including 66 percent in the second half and 58 percent from the 3-point arc, and still lost. They were able to cut an 18-point lead to two points late but couldn't get over the hump with LSU freshman Antonio Blakeney hitting 10 straight free throws in the final 28.5 seconds. UF closes the regular season with what should be a win at terrible Missouri.

Kentucky (21-8, 11-5) fell out of sole possession of first place in the SEC with Saturday's 74-62 loss at Vanderbilt. The truth of the matter this season regarding Kentucky is that's it's a two-man team most nights: freshman Jamal Murray and sophomore Tyler Ulis, both guards. Murray had 33 points in the loss to the Commodores and Ulis 12 points and six assists. Only two other players even scored. There was just one bench point in that entire game from both sides (Vandy's Riley LaChance). Kentucky is now tied for first with Texas A&M. The Aggies hold the tiebreaker. Kentucky finishes the regular season at home, where it's unbeaten, against LSU. UK beat visiting Florida 80-61 on Feb. 6 behind a career-high 35 points from Murray. Ulis had 18 points and 11 assists.

Key trends: UK is 1-4 ATS in its past five road games. UF is 9-4 ATS in its past 13 after a loss. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings.

I'm leaning: Florida.

No. 12 Indiana at No. 16 Iowa (-4)

Big Ten game at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN. Indiana (23-6, 13-3) clinches the outright Big Ten regular-season title and top seed in next week's conference tournament with a win. The Hoosiers won at least a share of their 22nd Big Ten title with a 74-47 rout at Illinois last Thursday. Starting sophomore guard Robert Johnson missed the game with a sprained ankle, and Nick Zeisloft took his spot. He finished with 14 points in a season-high 32 minutes. Senior Yogi Ferrell scored a game-high 27 points on 11-for-18 shooting. That Illinois game was his 131st career start, setting a school record. Ferrell needs two assists to become the second player in Big Ten history with at least 1,800 points, 600 assists and 400 rebounds -- former Illinois player Dee Brown is the other. If Indiana doesn't win here it might have to share the title because it closes with a tough one at home vs. Maryland. The Terps, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Iowa are all tied for second.

The Hawkeyes (20-8, 11-5) are trending the wrong way. They lost at Ohio State 68-64 on Sunday, Iowa's third straight loss -- all to unranked teams. Mike Gesell's potential tying layup with five seconds left was blocked and then the Buckeyes hit two free throws to ice the game. Iowa was up six points with about four minutes left. The Hawkeyes close the regular season at Michigan on Saturday. Iowa lost at Indiana 85-78 on Feb. 11. Indiana blew a 16-point lead but was able to come back from a four-point hole. Ferrell had 14 points. Johnson was healthy then and had 13 points and four rebounds. Jarrod Uthoff led Iowa with 24 points.

Key trends: Indiana is 2-5 ATS in its past seven Tuesday games. Iowa is 5-0 ATS in its past five at home vs. teams with a winning road record. Iowa is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings at home.

I'm leaning: Iowa.

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