College Football Betting Advice: High-Profile Teams that Could Disappoint

by Trevor Whenham - 8/2/2017

Penn State Nittany Lions wide receiver Saeed Blacknall

It is inevitable that teams that people have high hopes for now will be massive disappointments by December. It happens every year. All you need to do to see how common it is would be to look back at last year's preseason AP Top 25. Notre Dame was ranked 10th and went a dismal 4-8. Ole Miss was one spot back in the rankings and wound up with only one more win - and now has a coaching scandal to deal with. Michigan State was ranked 12th and won three games. UCLA went 4-8 after starting 16th. And Oregon also was 4-8 after starting in 24th. That's a lot of bad teams that rode high hopes into last season. So, which teams this year will be similarly disappointing? Which will rip the hearts out of fans and the cash out of the wallets of those bettors who have faith in them? Here are four good candidates:

Florida: The Gators get a lot of credit for winning their division the last two years since Jim McElwain took over. That has indeed been a solid feat, but we need to remember two things - they have still been a plenty flawed team, and the division has been really bad. As they were the last two years, there aren't too many other divisions in major conferences besides their own that they would even have won once. And now they face a couple of big, scary issues.

First, Georgia is dramatically improved, so the division is much tougher. Second, they don't have a clear choice at QB. Malik Zaire transferred in from Notre Dame, but he arrived late and is far from a great player. Luke Del Rio won the job last year but battled injuries throughout. And there are some raw but intriguing youngsters, too. They have options, but no clear leader, and that can be very distracting for a team.

And there is the schedule. They avoid Alabama, but it's still very tough. They open against Michigan and close against Florida State - two brutal nonconference tilts. And they have an LSU, Texas A&M, Georgia gauntlet that could rip them apart if they are vulnerable. The upside is there for this team, but the wheels could easily fall off.

Penn State: The Nittany Lions surprised everyone last year by winning the Big Ten after topping both Michigan and Ohio State in their very brutal divisional standings. They are loved, and stud running back Saquon Barkley is a media darling and serious Heisman contender.

The team could very easily disappoint, though. Remember that this team was really lousy early on last year. They topped Michigan in the standings but lost to them by 39 in Week 4 of the season to drop to 2-2. Now Michigan has a chance to be better than last year - less experienced but very talented - and Ohio State is again a force. Penn State has a major disadvantage against those teams because the post-Paterno recruiting limit has impacted their depth.

This year they have to play Michigan and Ohio State in consecutive weeks, which is as brutal an eight-day stretch as any team in the country will face. And this year Penn State isn't going to be able to sneak up on anyone because teams expect them to be good.

I don't expect a Notre Dame-like bottoming out for this team this year - not with this general schedule - but the media and oddsmakers love this team right now, and I definitely could see that love be forgotten in a hurry when reality strikes this squad.

Texas: Tom Herman was an absolute home run hire, and over the long term he is going to have success at Texas. People expect it to come quickly, though, like it did for him in Houston. It won't be that easy.

Herman doesn't have a clear, comfortable choice at QB. He has a team that has been broken mentally and hasn't recruited particularly well - relative to their past, at least - in recent years. He is in a conference that has some tough foes. And he has a target on his back the size of the state of Texas.

Right now there is a whole lot of optimism being directed towards this team. It is very possible that that is at least a year or two premature.

Louisville: The stakes are lower here, because despite having the Heisman winner back for more at QB the expectations are now sky high here - they are tied with Miami as the third choice to win the ACC at +550 but miles and miles behind Florida State at -110 and well behind Clemson at +350.

There feels like a solid chance, though, that this team could seriously disappoint even in the face of modest expectations. Lamar Jackson was terrible in his bowl game against LSU after the pressure and distractions of his Heisman win, and he could struggle to be all he was last year. This team fell apart late last year, losing their last three. Bobby Petrino is a tough guy to play for, and a tougher guy to like, so his message could easily struggle to find willing listeners. And while the schedule is far from brutal, there are a few places a team that isn't sharp could easily stumble - starting with a Week 3 game against Clemson.

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College Football Betting Advice: High-Profile Teams that Could Disappoint

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