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NCAA Football Mid-Major Free Betting Picks: Marshall Thundering Herd Week 10


by - 11/1/2017

Chase Litton Marshall Thundering Herd

Week 10 is already here, and it's time for another mid-major betting report. This is the seventh straight season I'm doing the mid-major report for Doc's Sports. How have the selections on the mid-major betting report done? Overall, the record is 40 wins and 29 losses with a gain of $1,500.

The Marshall Thundering Herd were the team I chose to follow this season because I thought they could turn things around. This team has a proud past, and so far this season they have indeed been much improved from a year ago. How much? Marshall has already surpassed their opening season win total of five games. The rest of the season I'll continue to follow beat writers, follow players and coaches on Twitter, and read the press conference transcripts to find information on the Thundering Herd. I'll be looking to make myself an expert on this Thundering Herd team.

Though it has still been a very good season for Marshall, they hit a speed bump last week against FIU. Where does the team go from here? Let's take a closer look.

Last Game

At the end of last week's article I said, "I believe this is a tricky spot for Marshall." Still, I decided to pass on playing FIU plus the points because I hated to go against a Marshall team I'm very high on. In hindsight, I certainly wish I had played FIU for at least a small play.

Marshall lost 41-30 last week against FIU. The Thundering Herd were 17-point favorites for much of the week last week. Money came in on FIU late and pushed the number down to Marshall -14.5. The Thundering Herd trailed 35-7 before mounting a big rally to get within 38-30 in the fourth quarter. The rally came up short.

Marshall turned the ball over three times. FIU had zero turnovers. FIU threw the ball only 18 times. The Golden Panthers ran it 48 times for 224 yards. FIU obviously ran the ball more because they had a big lead and were milking the clock, but the fact that they could have so much success running was a surprise. Marshall was 0/3 on fourth-down-conversion attempts. Chase Litton threw for 363 yards, but he threw two interceptions (one was a pick-six).

Notes of Interest

-Marshall starting offensive lineman Nathaniel Devers was arrested early Sunday morning and is now suspended from the team. No word on when or if he will return, but he won't be playing this Friday night against Florida Atlantic.

-Grant Traylor, writer at The Herald-Dispatch, wrote about the tough road ahead for Marshall football based on their schedule. Marshall has played the easy part of their schedule, and now they enter a very tough last four games. The trip to Florida Atlantic this week is extremely tough. They then host a Western Kentucky team that has beaten them three times in a row. Marshall travels to take on UTSA on Nov. 18 before finishing the season with a home game against Southern Miss. Doc Holliday said this week he continues to reiterate to his team the importance of "finishing this week 1-0." You have to wonder if Marshall didn't look ahead a bit last weekend. They can't afford to do that anymore this season.

-Florida Atlantic is the Conference USA East leader at 4-0, and Marshall really needs to win this week's game to have a realistic chance at getting to the Conference USA title game. Florida Atlantic's offense started a little slow this year, but they have been on fire of late. The Owls have scored at least 38 points in each of their last four games. They have scored 31 or more in each of their last six. It's been the running game that has driven their success. Florida Atlantic is fifth in the country in yards per carry. The Owls are averaging 6.30 yards per carry for the year. They have gained 6.57 yards per carry or better in five of their last six games.

-Florida Atlantic is fourth in the country in turnover margin at +12 on the season. Marshall sits at 11 turnovers gained and 11 turnovers lost (0 margin). The turnover battle will be a really important part of this Friday night's contest. Marshall can't afford to let Florida Atlantic have the advantage here.

Betting Trends

- Marshall is 7-3-1 against the spread in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.

-Florida Atlantic is 4-0 ATS in their last four games.

-The 'under' is 20-6 in Marshall's last 26 conference games.

-The 'over' is 7-1 in Florida Atlantic's last eight conference games.

Marshall vs. Florida Atlantic College Football Odds

Florida Atlantic opened as a 9.5- or 10-point favorite depending on the book. There has been money come in on the Thundering Herd. The Owls are now 7.5- or 8-point favorites in this one . The posted total has seen huge line movement. The total opened at 62.5 and now sits anywhere from a low of 66 to a high of 67 points on the board.

Marshall vs. Florida Atlantic College Football Picks

This is a massive game for both teams. Florida Atlantic hosts this game, and it will be on national television on Friday night. I think the Marshall defense has been great so far this year, but this is their toughest test inside the conference by a large margin. This Florida Atlantic offense has been extremely explosive of late.

Florida Atlantic's defense is a clear weakness. Marshall has been up and down on offense this year, but I do think they can score quite a few in this one as well. I would have made this a bigger play if the number were still lower, but at the current level of 66 points, I'll make a one unit selection on the over here.

I think this game will tell us a lot about Marshall. How do they respond to disappointment and then playing a tough opponent on the road on a short week? We'll find out.

Pick #317- Marshall/Florida Atlantic over 66 (1 unit play)

Season Results- 6 Wins 2 Losses (+$560)

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