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NCAA Football Predictions: Week 7 Opening Line Report and Picks


by - 10/9/2017

J.T. Barrett Ohio State Buckeyes

Is Michigan's Jim Harbaugh a good coach? No question. Would the vast majority of schools want him over their current coach? Certainly. But is Harbaugh also a tad overrated? I think that's fair to say. The Wolverines' national title hopes might be gone after they were upset 14-10 at home by Michigan State on Saturday, dropping Harbaugh to 1-4 against U-M's two main rivals in the Spartans and Ohio State.

Harbaugh's overall record at Michigan after 31 games is almost the same as predecessor Brady Hoke's was, but Hoke was 2-2 against Sparty and OSU. The Wolverines played without starting quarterback Wilton Speight against Michigan State, and now there's talk he might be done for the season. His backup, Houston transfer John O'Korn, was awful against the Spartans in completing just 16 of 35 for 198 yards and three interceptions. There was some questionable play-calling in the second half in the midst of a monsoon as drives that spanned the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth saw U-M call 11 passes on 14 plays. That's when O'Korn's three interceptions happened.

Michigan turned it over five times overall and didn't force any. The Spartans did absolutely nothing offensively in the second half (66 yards) but were able to hold on. Michigan State, which debuted in the new AP poll at No. 21, has beaten Michigan (dropped from No. 7 to No. 17) eight times in a 10-year stretch for the first time in a series that dates to 1898.

I would say both Michigan and Michigan State are on letdown alert this week, especially Sparty. It is a 4-point favorite at Minnesota , while the Wolverines are -6.5 at Indiana. Here are a few Week 7 opening lines that caught my eye. Games Saturday unless noted.

Texas State at Louisiana-Lafayette (-14): Why on earth am I previewing a Sun Belt Conference game between bad teams with a combined three wins? Because it's your only Thursday night NCAA betting option. Of course, ESPN usually has a Power 5 conference game on the Thursday schedule, and Georgia Tech was to visit Miami on this date. However, Hurricane Irma shifted Miami's schedule around, moving the Sept. 16 Florida State game to this past Saturday and then shifting Jackets-Canes to Saturday in Week 7. ULL entered this past Saturday's 21-16 win at Idaho allowing an FBS-worst 53.8 points per game but held the Vandals to 279 yards. Texas State lost 27-3 at home to ULL last season. Elijah McGuire ran for 112 yards and two touchdowns to lead the Ragin' Cajuns. McGuire is now a Jets rookie who was a popular fantasy football waiver wire pickup last week.The Pick: ULL.

No. 9 Ohio State at Nebraska (+24): Potential Big Ten Championship Game preview, although the Huskers' chances of winning the West took a big hit with Saturday's home loss to division foe Wisconsin, 38-17. The Badgers, who probably will win the West, gashed that Nebraska defense for 353 rushing yards in NU's first loss in a home night game since 2008. Ohio State pummeled Maryland 62-14 on Saturday, holding the Terps to just 66 yards, the fewest allowed by the Buckeyes since 1960. It's only the sixth all-time meeting between these marquee programs and fourth since the Huskers joined the Big Ten. The Buckeyes embarrassed them last year in Columbus, 62-3, when Nebraska was somehow ranked 10th in the nation. It was OSU's most points ever scored against a Top-10 team and Nebraska's most lopsided loss since 2004 (70-10 to Texas Tech). I can't remember Nebraska being this big of a home dog before and searched a database to find out: It never has been at least as far back as that goes. The Pick: Nebraska.

No. 10 Auburn at LSU (+7): Now we really find out what Auburn is made of as the schedule is very tough the rest of the way and it won't play at home for a month. It visits Arkansas and Texas A&M the next two games (OK, not ranked but not easy places to play), then hosts No. 4 Georgia, gets a scrimmage vs. UL Monroe, and hosts No. 1 Alabama. Auburn beat LSU 18-13 last year. You may remember that a last-second TD pass by LSU's Danny Etling was ruled to have come after time expired. LSU fired Les Miles the next day. The Tigers took some heat off embattled coach Ed Orgeron this past Saturday with a 17-16 win at Florida thanks to a missed Gators extra point. Auburn pounded Ole Miss 44-23 as Kerryon Johnson rushed for a career-high 204 yards and three touchdowns. He has a whopping 11 TDs over the past three games after missing two with a hamstring injury. The Pick: LSU.

No. 12 Oklahoma vs. Texas (+7.5): It's the first Red River Rivalry (in Dallas) between first-year Sooners coach Lincoln Riley and Longhorns counterpart Tom Herman. I have a feeling those two will be in many, many more of these games. Oklahoma suffered one of the biggest upsets in college football history on Saturday, falling 38-31 at home to Iowa State as a 31-point favorite to end OU's 14-game winning streak. The Cyclones were even using backup quarterback Kyle Kempt, who replaced starter Jacob Park after he took a leave from the team for undisclosed personal medical reasons. It's the seventh straight season Oklahoma has lost a game as a double-digit favorite. UT beat Kansas State 40-34 in double overtime. The Horns are 2-0 in the Big 12 for the first time in four years. OU and Texas have split the past four meetings, and the Sooners won a 45-40 thriller in 2016. Baker Mayfield threw for 390 yards and three scores and Dede Westbrook had 10 catches for 232 yard and three scores. He's now with the Jaguars. The Pick: Texas.

Utah at No. 13 USC (-13): Important game in the Pac-12 South, in which every team has at least one conference loss. The Utes fell out of the Top 25 following their 23-20 home loss to Stanford on Saturday. Utah played without QB Tyler Huntley. He started the first four games but suffered an undisclosed injury two weeks ago vs. Arizona. The school doesn't release injury information, so there's no way to know if he plays here. Southern Cal beat Oregon State 38-10. Sam Darnold threw for 316 yards and three scores but was picked off as he has been in every game thus far in 2017. USC's 13-game home winning streak is the second-longest in the FBS. Utah beat USC 31-27 last year. That was notable because it dropped USC to 1-3 at the time and was Darnold's first college start. He wouldn't lose again until a couple of weeks ago at Washington State. The Pick: Utah.

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