2017 Super Bowl Prop Picks and Expert Betting Advice

by Dave Schwab - 1/25/2017

The New England Patriots went wire to wire as the top favorites in the AFC futures to represent this conference in Super Bowl LI, but the Atlanta Falcons coming out of the NFC was a bit of a surprise given their preseason futures odds as fourth or fifth favorites to win their conference. Nonetheless, we should have a pretty good matchup on tap in Super Bowl LI when kickoff finally rolls around on Sunday, Feb. 5 at NRG Stadium at 6:35 p.m. (ET).

As usual, any number of prop bet odds have been released in conjunction with this game, and I have tapped into the current betting odds at BetOnline to come up with a few early prop plays that have the best value on the board.

Super Bowl LI- First Score a Touchdown?

The betting odds that the first score of Super Bowl LI will be a touchdown have been set at -185, and the moneyline odds that the first scoring play will come on a field goal or safety have been set at +160.

The Patriots or the Falcons did not get to the Super Bowl by kicking field goals. They each boast an offense that can quickly move the ball down the field through the air, and they each have a ground game that has a proven ability to gain yards rushing the ball when necessary. In my opinion it is going to take touchdowns to win this game, starting with the first score of the game.

The main reason I am going with the risk/reward on the -185 moneyline in this prop is that both head coaches also know the importance of putting seven points on the board early in the game as opposed to three. A quick touchdown gives the scoring team a huge mental edge in a very close matchup. If they have to settle for three points instead as the first score, that would actually swing the edge towards the opposing team's defense.

Super Bowl LI- Highest Scoring Quarter?

The betting odds for this scoring prop begin at +450 for the first quarter, and they are set at +160 for the second. Heading into the second half, the betting odds that the third quarter will have the highest total score are set at +450, and they come in at +175 for the fourth.

To be successful at picking props, you need to first have a good deal of confidence in how you see any game playing out. When it comes to this matchup, I see two heavyweights trying to feel one another out in the early rounds before they each start throwing some haymakers in the later rounds. Both of these teams have averaged well more than 30 points in each of their last several games, and I believe that they will need to match that kind of scoring total to come away with a win in this game. No matter what the current score is at any point of Super Bowl LI, neither team is going to stop trying to put points on the board until the final gun.

This kind of game scenario lends itself to a wild fourth quarter of scoring that will ultimately decide the actual outcome of Super Bowl LI. This is why I am going with the +175 odds in this prop that the fourth quarter will prove to be the highest-scoring one.

Super Bowl LI- Longest Touchdown?

This is an "over/under" game prop that has betting odds of -120 for over 50.5 yards for the longest touchdown and +100 for under 50.5 yards.

There is no doubt that New England quarterback Tom Brady is a future Hall of Famer and Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan would take a big step towards a possible trip to Canton when his playing days are over with a victory in this game. Both of these gunslingers lead a big-play offense that has the ability to score a touchdown from anywhere on the field. Both are also playing some of the best football of their career to the point that either Brady or Ryan would make an excellent choice as league MVP for their elevated play this season.

Given that fact that Brady and Ryan are the two starting quarterbacks in this game makes it rather easy to go with the over 50.5 yards as the top play in this prop since you are basically doubling your chances to win.

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