NFL Survivor and Confidence Pool Picks and Advice: Week 6

by Matt Severance - 10/10/2018

Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson

Now that we are hitting mid-October shortly, it's important for those of you in Survivor and Confidence Pools to start checking weather reports in those cold-weather cities that don't have domes (the Lions and Vikings shouldn't be playing indoors while the Bears and Packers play out in the elements in the NFC North, but that's an argument for another day).

Inclement weather can definitely even a playing field between one team more talented than another, especially if the underdog is used to playing in those conditions and the heavy favorite isn't. I'm especially looking at this week's Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos matchup. Feels an awful lot like a trap game for the Rams after a close call at hated rival Seattle last Sunday, in the altitude and out of the conference - if you are going to lose a game, best to do it out of conference for tiebreaker reasons.

No team in the NFL has a better home-field advantage in one regard than Denver does with players not used to playing at altitude. And it appears that autumn is over and winter is arriving in the Rocky Mountains as the forecast for Sunday is for a bit of snow and temperatures in the mid-20s. You think the warm-weather Rams and their high-powered offense is ready for that?

My top four choices all won last week, but it also reinforced why you should wait until the last possible minute. I saw that the 49ers were going to be without a handful of key guys vs. winless Arizona. Not only did I move the Niners off 11, but I switched the pick completely to the Cardinals right at the bottom of the confidence scale. And they won, meaning no 0-16 teams this year.

Here are my Week 6 Survivor Picks in order of how I would also do my Confidence Pool selections (with occasional exceptions noted when necessary). The team listed first is my choice. Detroit and New Orleans are on the bye so we start at 15.

15. Houston vs. Buffalo: This is only if Deshaun Watson is good go to go - if you watched the Sunday night Cowboys-Texans game then you surely saw Watson grimacing often with a rib injury. Now that the Texans are starting to turn things around, I don't believe they overlook Buffalo.

14. Minnesota vs. Arizona: Of course, the Vikings were -17 at home a few weeks ago vs. the Bills and suffered the NFL's biggest upset in more than 20 years. No freaking way they blow it against another patsy.

13. Green Bay vs. San Francisco (Monday): This game got super lame with Jimmy Garoppolo's injury. The Packers don't look quite right, and I'm not sure I'd give all these points, but they won't lose at home to C.J. Beathard.

12. Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay: Bit surprised that Dirk Koetter didn't make some staff changes after Tampa's embarrassing Week 4 loss in Chicago and then the bye. Last one with the ball should win here between the league's two worst defenses. I'll take my chances with Matt Ryan over Jameis Crablegs.

11. Carolina at Washington: Maybe I'm overreacting to how bad Washington looked Monday night, but how can the Redskins play so terribly coming off their bye week? The NFC East is a joke.

10. New England vs. Kansas City: Yep, the one AFC unbeaten falls on Sunday night. Teams might be figuring out Patrick Mahomes a bit, and Tom Brady just doesn't lose these potentially huge playoff tiebreaker games at home.

9. Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh: The Steelers will be playing their last game without Le'Veon Bell unless he's traded during the bye week. Pittsburgh has owned this series, but the Bengals aren't folding this year like season's past.

8. LA Rams at Denver: I guess this is as low as I can realistically go with the Rams, at least for now. I do think this is going to be a problem game and that the Broncos can win just like they nearly did two weeks ago vs. the visiting Chiefs. Perhaps Rams just win very close.

7. Bears at Dolphins: This is a weird feeling for me: A game my Bears are "supposed" to win on the road. Here's hoping the bye week didn't stop all of Mitch Trubisky's and Khalil Mack's momentum. Khalil, meet Ryan Tannehill!

6. Seattle "at" Oakland: This one's in London, but not one of those 9:30 a.m. games. Why would the NFL make two California teams take that massive flight and then play at 10 a.m. Pacific?

5. Dallas vs. Jacksonville: The Cowboys could legitimately go 8-0 at home and 0-8 on the road. I'll give Dak Prescott the edge over Blake Bortles.

4. Baltimore at Tennessee: The Titans showed they were flukes last week by doing nothing offensively in a loss in Buffalo. Ravens win a slugfest.

3. NY Jets vs. Indianapolis: Two banged-up teams going nowhere. Meh.

2. NY Giants vs. Philadelphia (Thursday): What could go wrong seems to be doing so for the defending champions as they have now lost Jay Ajayi for the season. Giants nearly won both meetings last year.

1. Cleveland vs. LA Chargers: The. Browns. Will. Get. Over. .500!

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NFL Survivor and Confidence Pool Picks and Advice: Week 6

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