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NFL Survivor and Confidence Pool Picks and Advice: Week 7


by Matt Severance - 10/17/2018

Philip Rivers of the San Diego Chargers

Click Here for 2019 NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 7

Week 7 is the first week your Survivor/Confidence choices really take their first hit because it's the first week four teams are on the bye. Two you might use in a given week for your Survivor choice or at No. 16 in a Confidence Pool in Green Bay and Pittsburgh, and two that really don't matter in Seattle and Oakland. Ah, Jon Gruden. Should have stayed in the Monday night booth … although even Gruden was better than Jason Witten.

Good thing for the San Francisco/Oakland Bay area that the NBA season tipped off on Tuesday night and the Warriors are all but championship locks because that area's two NFL teams, the 49ers and Raiders, might combine to win fewer games this year than the Dubs do this month. Hey, that would be a good prop! Actually, I just looked at the Warriors' schedule. They have nine games in October and realistically only lose two - not seeing the Raiders and 49ers combining for close to 7-8 wins so never mind.

Really nothing too shocking in Week 6 of the season. Pretty much everyone who was supposed to win did - except my Bears as incredibly rare road favorites, of course. Houston perhaps put a scare into those of us (and I was one) who had the Texans as their top Survivor and Confidence choices, but the Texans returned a late pick-six for the winning touchdown over Buffalo. Green Bay also was a popular pick this week and easily could have lost at home to San Francisco on Monday, but then CJ Beathard remembered he was CJ Beathard and threw a devastating late interception when at worst that should have gone to overtime. Man, I hate the freaking lucky Packers.

We did have yet another OT game (Bears-Dolphins), and this is the first time in league history there has been at least one in each of a season's first six weeks. Here are my Week 7 Survivor Picks in order of how I would also do my Confidence Pool selections (with occasional exceptions noted when necessary). The team listed first is my choice.

14. LA Chargers vs. Tennessee: This is our first 9:30 a.m. kickoff of the year from London. Titans QB Marcus Mariota probably still hasn't gotten out of bed after being sacked 11 times last week by the Ravens. Chargers are starting to play to expectations. I slightly worry about the intangibles of the long trip and wacky start time for the Los Angeles players, although they stayed in the Midwest most of this week.

13. LA Rams at San Francisco: I do believe this game will be closer than the spread indicates with the Rams perhaps looking ahead to the Packers in Week 8. But, they aren't losing to the San Francisco Treats.

12. Tampa Bay vs. Cleveland: Bucs have two things going for them here: Browns won't be used to the heat and humidity this long after training camp, and Tampa no longer has Mike Smith as their defensive coordinator. That can only help.

11. Jacksonville vs. Houston: The Jaguars have looked atrocious on both sides of the ball the past two weeks, but a return home often cures all. Maybe it won't cure Blake Bortles (nothing will) but should the defense.

10. Indianapolis vs. Buffalo: The Bills won't have rookie QB Josh Allen; does that help or hurt that team? Maybe Allen will be good eventually, but he's not currently. Then again, my younger sister is better than backup Nate Peterman. Believe Buffalo will go with Derek Anderson, whom I thought died like three years ago.

9. Atlanta vs. NY Giants (Monday): Really have little interest in watching this terrible prime-time matchup. Alas, the "Better Caul Saul" season is over so not much else to watch on Mondays (World Series doesn't begin until Tuesday). Maybe I'll talk/hang out with my wife Monday night! HAHA. Falcons are so much better offensively than Giants that should be enough for a relatively easy home win.

8. Kansas City vs. Cincinnati: Wouldn't touch this as a bettor because it's a double letdown game after the Bengals lost late vs. the Steelers last Sunday and the Chiefs did the same vs. the Patriots. K.C. should prevail at home in a game flexed to Sunday night.

7. Minnesota at NY Jets: The Vikings do tend to play down to their competition at times (Bills, Cardinals), but they should escape the Meadowlands with a close win. Jets can see what could have been with Kirk Cousins.

6. Philadelphia vs. Carolina: The Panthers have lost their past five on the road, while the Eagles might have found their 2017 form last Thursday.

5. Baltimore vs. New Orleans: The Saints are off the bye and Drew Brees should join the 500 TD club, but that Ravens defense might not give up much more in their first home game in about a month.

4. New England at Chicago: Stupid, stupid Bears! Well, stupid, stupid Matt Nagy! Thrilled the Bears have a coach who doesn't call run, run, short pass, punt like John Fox. But, man, that dude's failure to grow a pair and trust his quarterback late in games has now cost Chicago victories in Green Bay and Miami. Bears are getting there and maybe Pats are flat off wild win over Chiefs, but I can't go against Tom Brady (sadly).

3. Washington vs. Dallas: Really just the fact the Redskins are home, where they've beaten Green Bay and Carolina, and the Cowboys on the road, where they are 0-3 and have totaled 37 points.

2. Detroit at Miami: I know, I know, should never trust the Lions as road underdogs. But, they are off a bye and likely to face Brock Osweiler. He's not going to have a second straight career game.

1. Arizona vs. Denver (Thursday): I'd rather watch a four-hour marathon doubleheader of "Small World" followed by that Geico "Caveman" show (wtf was ABC thinking there?) than one single minute of this horrible matchup. I guess Arizona is the pick simply at home. Tell me what happens. Wait … I have Royce Freeman in two fantasy leagues. Damn, guess I'll have to at least read the box score Friday morning.
 

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