Week 10 Survivor Pool Picks from Captain and the Big Man
If you listened to the week 9 episode of Survivor Pool Podcast last week, you would know that Captain and the Big man were 13-1. Not only did 13 of the survivor picks come through, but those teams also beat the spread (and two of them were outright dogs and won). Below you will find our analysis of four games on the slate for Week 10. Get involved and subscribe to the podcast for the full breakdown of all 14 games (and some laughs). This week on Survivor Pool Podcast, we have Steve Hytner helping us chop up the NFL slate; Steve is a hilarious comedian made famous from his work on Seinfeld, so you are sure to have some extra giggles.
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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS DALLAS COWBOYS
The Cowboys looked awful Monday night. They did not score at all in the second half, and that is some ugly football. I have been saying all season that if Zeke runs for 100+ then the Cowboys can beat almost any team. Against the Titans, he carried the ball only 17 times for 66 yards, so Dallas lost. I am getting on the "Dak is a bad QB" train. He is sloppy, he does not see the field like he needs to. The man is an average QB at best.
The Dallas defense looked horrible against an average Titans offense that had a great game because the Cowboys coaching staff did not scheme against the Titan strengths. Where was the spy on Mariota on his last running touchdown? That was not a delayed QB draw, that was just a bad defensive play that Mariota took advantage of. All of this begs the question...how has Jason Garrett been at the helm of the Dallas Cowboys longer than the legend, Tom Landry. It seems clear at this point that Garrett has some kind of dirt on Jerry Jones, because there is no other rational reason for Garrett not to get whacked.
In London, Carson Wentz threw for 286 yards and three scores, spreading the ball around. The Eagles D is better than the Titans D, and so they should make the stops against Zeke that are necessary to hold him under 100 yards. Zeke under 100 means Dallas will lose, and the Eagles can hold him under 100.
This should be a good game with hated rivals going at it. The Eagles smell blood in the NFC East waters right now, and the addition of Golden Tate is the bell ringing for this team that now is the time to press. Dallas is on a short week. Philly is off the bye. The Eagles are a better team. Survivor players needing to get cute because they are unable to play the more likely winners this Sunday, should examine this game .
CHARGERS AT OAKLAND RAIDERS
The Raider game last Thursday was the ugliest display of football I have ever seen. We know for certain at this point that gutting the team is a strategic plan to save salary overhead so Mark Davis can be compliant with the NFL owner rules. So, Gruden did what he had to do, and this season is over for the Raiders because the rest of the team refuses to play on a team that is strictly bidding time until they move to Vegas. OK, solid ownership strategy, but it makes for horrible football…horrible. If you add up the scores of the last 5 quarters for the Raiders, the Colts/Niners have scored 55 and the Raiders have scored 3. Let that sink in…the Raiders have been outscored 55-3 over the past 5Q.
The Chargers keep rolling, and their only losses are to the Chiefs and the Rams. That is a pretty decent resume. Rivers deserves to be in the MVP conversation, having the best first 8 games of his career with 19 TD's and only three picks. That said, we all know that we keep on waiting for the Chargers meltdown, right? It's coming, right? A great "Chargerism" that happened this week which reminds us all that this team is still the Chargers, is their kicking game. Sturgis missed a Field Goal and two extra points on Sunday, and he was whacked on Monday. Rightfully so, but that is only part of the story. The Chargers have churned through six kickers in the past 22 games. Six kickers!!!! There are always more quality kickers than there are teams to hire them…so how is it that the Chargers cannot find someone to do the job? It is strange, and leads me to believe that the Chargers are still the Chargers, and things might very well go sideways at any moment.
The one thing that keeps me focused on the Chargers is that a healthy Melvin Gordon is carving up defenses, and a solid run game makes the Chargers a very dangerous team. Gordon is a touchdown hawk; the man likes to run through the tape. Since 2016, he has 34 TD's from scrimmage. The only player with more in that time frame is Todd Gurley, putting Gordon in great company (and adding a little spice to the Chargers vs. Rams rivalry that the NFL is hoping for). At this point in the season, it could be argued that the Philip Rivers- Melvin Gordon - Keenan Allen trio might be the best QB-RB-WR combo in the league.
The Chargers get Arizona in two weeks, and this is a division rivalry game on the road for the Chargers. So, holding on to them for when they play Arizona might make sense if you have other options. However…let's remember…that the Raiders have lost the last five quarters 55-3. So if you want to use the Chargers here, have no fear in doing so.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS
On Sunday Brees was tremendous. Thomas had one of the greatest games a New Orleans receiver has ever had. His 211 yards (on 12 catches) set a franchise record and his 72-yard catch-and-run touchdown sealed the victory; Kamara scored two rushing touchdowns and a receiving touchdown. The Saints stars are shining bright.
If the Bengals were totally healthy this would be a game I might be worried about with Cincy coming off the bye and New Orleans coming off the big high of their Rams win. But with no AJ Green, the Saints get a ripe opportunity to keep the train rolling.
New Orleans has reason to be extraordinarily focused this week, and that is all about securing home field advantage. Outside of Seattle, it could be argued that the Superdome is the biggest home field advantage in the playoffs. The volume certainly impacted the Rams on Sunday, and then when Drew Brees was at the line calling signs, you could hear a pin drop in that stadium; those are some kind of fans. And that, is why I think the Saints are going to fight harder than the other two prime contenders for top seed in the NFC-the 8-1 Rams and the 6-2 Panthers. Neither the Rams nor the Panthers would have a home-field edge like the Saints would in the Dome. The Saints have a very tough road (Falcons, Carolina, Steelers, Carolina again) but If they are going to beat the Rams in the conference championship game (yeah, let's just say that is going to happen, because it seems highly likely at this point…and that will now be a revenge game for the Rams) then that game needs to be played in the Superdome for the Saints to pull it off.
There are certainly games with a higher comfort level than this one, but if players need to get cute then this game is one to consider. This is one of those "spots" that I think favor the Saints against the AJ Green-less Bengals.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS ARIZONA CARDINALS
The Chiefs are -1667 money line, and I don't know that I have ever seen that for an NFL game. To put that in perspective, the Vikings were a measly -1000 money line week 3 vs. Buffalo. We all know how that turned out, but the odds of that kind of upset occurring twice in the same season are not good. Speaking of odds, I don't know what the odds are of winning a coin toss 8 times in a row, but that is what has happened to the Chiefs. They have won the coin toss…for 8 games…in a row. It looks like not only are they incredibly good, they are also incredibly lucky, and that is a tough combo for opposing teams to manage.
KC has only been held under 30 points once all season, and there is no possible way the Cardinals defense can hold back the onslaught that is the Chiefs offense. On Sunday, Mahomes threw for 375 yards and three touchdowns; Kareem Hunt totaled 141 yards and three touchdowns; Kelce caught seven passes for 99 yards and two scores. Good gravy they love scoring the rock.
Meanwhile, the Cards are trying to revamp and build. They had a nice comeback win against the 49ers two weeks ago, and newly appointed Offensive Coordinator Byron Leftwitch seems to be bringing new life to the unit with a style resembling former Head Coach Arians' offensive schemes. Dumping Sam Bradford and burning 16 Million does not make a lot of sense to me (they will regret it if, like the Bills, they burn through their backups) but it does send a message to the team that a new day has dawned. But let's be honest, the Chiefs are the rude awakening, and the Cards should brace themselves for a bucket of cold water reality on Sunday. KC is good, and the Cards stink.
If you still have the Chiefs to play, then you were most likely holding them for this very moment, and you should fire them without hesitation. For those players who have another great team to play this week and you hold the Chiefs for when they are at the Raiders in two weeks, I don't doubt that you have your rationale; but playing KC at home vs. the Cards instead of on the road against a division rival is just not my scene.
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Captain and the Big Man offer Survivor Pool information and guidance every week on their show Survivor Pool Podcast. Bringing their decades of experience and success in Survivor Pools, they break down every NFL game on the card, examining matchups and using game theory strategy to offer suggestions on how Survivor Pool players can live to fight another Sunday. Subscribe to the Survivor Pool Podcast and get the information you need to put your best pick forward.
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