College and NFL Football Biggest Line Moves for Dec. 12-13
It is the last big weekend of college football, and we head into the last four weeks of the NFL.
All the betting lines are as sharp as they have been all season at betting sites, making our job that much harder. Regardless, that has not changed what is occurring in the marketplace and we found six line moves to cover for you, both in college and pro football.
CFB – (385) WISCONSIN at (386) IOWA 3:30 ET FS1
As we have discussed previously here, early football betting lines are not the same as in the past, with most coming out before the last game is finished. They are now referred to as – The Lookahead Line. That plays a part in why Wisconsin opened as a one-point underdog at Iowa and they are now a 2.5-point favorite. If the Badgers don’t lose to Indiana at home, my guess is we don’t have this large of movement with football bettors thinking no way Wisconsin can lose three in row. I disagree and believe Iowa is playing better and its offense is more consistent and the win outright.
Betting Trend – 75% backing Iowa
Doug’s Take – Iowa covers
CFB – (419) NORTH CAROLINA at (420) MIAMI-FL 3:30 ET ABC
This is a very good ACC matchup and it could mean a Super 6 bowl bid for Miami if they win this week and next. The total leaping from 63.5 to 67.5 would seem to benefit North Carolina from the spread perspective. The average score of a Tar Heels game is 69.9 points a game, compared to the Hurricanes at 56.9 PPG. As you can see below, the money and tickets are massive on the “Over”, yet 56 percent are supporting Miami, which seems contrarian. It’s not that the Canes cannot win high-scoring affairs, as they have against Louisville and N.C. State. Nonetheless, with Miami 9-1 Under versus offensive teams averaging 5.9 or more yards a play, taking the Under for college football picks.
Betting Trend – 92% backing Over
Doug’s Take – Play Under
CFB – (433) NAVY at (434) ARMY 3:00 ET CBS
Because of the world we live in today, this is the first time since 1943 that the Navy/Army game will be played with one team having a home field advantage. This matchup features a most unique totals trend. These military schools have played 14 consecutive times where the outcome was an Under. This has been a tough one for sportsbooks to chase people off one side for a few years running. Bettors are wagering the Under without giving it a thought, and they pushed the total from 42.5 to 37.5. No hero selection here, following the trend.
Betting Trend – 80% backing Under
Doug’s Take – Play Under
NFL – (153) TENNESSEE at (154) JACKSONVILLE 1:00 ET CBS
Tennessee’s dreadful first half against Cleveland last Sunday, and subsequent defeat, has left those working the NFL odds feeling as sour on the Titans as after eating a bagful of Michigan cherry candies. Despite Jacksonville having lost 11 straight, Tennessee has tumbled from -9 to -7.5. The Jaguars have certainly played competitively with their recent 4-1 ATS record. Aside from the Pittsburgh loss, Jacksonville's four other recent setbacks are by 11 total points. Though I usually like the value of the half-point hook on a home underdog, the Jags turnover issues cannot be ignored, and they fail to cover.
Betting Trend – 92% backing Tennessee
Doug’s Take – Tennessee
NFL – (171) ATLANTA at (172) L.A. CHARGERS 4:25 ET FOX
The Chargers losing 45-0 to New England has everything to do with them flipped from -1.5 to +2.5 versus Atlanta. Both these teams have more ability than their records indicate. However, like stepping on the scale, what the number says is what you are. This is a game I would avoid. However, because it fits the criteria for this article and I’ll make a choice. Both teams have numerous negative trends coming in. Best advice, wait to see if the Falcons price comes down then jump if you like with the Bolts 3-11 ATS home games after one or more losses and 0-6 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in three consecutive contests.
Betting Trend – 56% backing L.A. Chargers
Doug’s Take – Atlanta covers
NFL – (177) PITTSBURGH at (178) BUFFALO 8:20 ET NBC
How can you not love football fans! After Pittsburgh saw its undefeated season fall against Washington, Steelers’ fans and others on Twitter were saying they won’t win another game this season. Pitt went from -2.5 to +1 against Buffalo. The Bills played a super ball game against San Francisco and probably deserve the favorite role. My instincts were to take the Steelers off an ugly loss, but what holds me back is this is their third contest in only 11 days and they looked tired in the second half against Washington. Just not sure they will have the energy to play four quarters, and I’ll back Buffalo for NFL picks.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Buffalo
Doug’s Take – Buffalo covers
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