College and NFL Football Biggest Line Moves for Oct. 17-19
We’ve had a couple of great college games this week from the Sun Belt Conference to get the football week started, and now we are looking for more. Your friendly writer/handicapper has studied the complete board and found some rather intriguing line moves to follow this weekend.
We have sides and totals, and I’ll do my best to explain why they happened and what the potential outcomes might be. Let’s saddle up for another exceptional weekend of life on the gridiron for sports bettors!
CFB – (125) NORTH CAROLINA at (126) FLORIDA STATE 7:30 ET ABC
North Carolina was extremely impressive offensively in their victory over Virginia Tech last week, scoring 56 points and amassing 656 total yards. Florida State did manage to score 26 points at Notre Dame with new quarterback Jordan Travis and got the cover against the college football odds. However, the Seminoles defense was gouged for 554 yards, and that could be a precursor for this week. UNC was bumped up from -9.5 to -13.5. And with that number under two touchdowns, that should be enough for Mack Brown’s crew to cover. The Heels are 6-0 ATS after scoring 40 or more points.
Betting Trend – 85% backing North Carolina
Doug’s Take – North Carolina covers
CFB – (129) LIBERTY at (130) SYRACUSE 12:00 ET ESPN3
This is not a contest everyone is watching out for. Nonetheless, my attention is drawn to Liberty being raised from a Pick to -3 point away favorite. The Flames have looked sharp in compiling a 3-0 (2-1 ATS) record, with Syracuse a desultory 1-3 SU (2-2 ATS). The Orange lost 38-24 at home to Duke last week, but they were outgained by a whopping 359 yards and the final score was only that close because the Blue Devils committed four turnovers. With the ‘Cuse having lost their starting QB, the situation doesn’t seem to fit them. Yet, last season, Liberty was a seven-point favorite against a terrible Rutgers club and lost 44-34. Here is a lean for Syracuse playing at home and from a better conference.
Betting Trend – 63% backing Syracuse
Doug’s Take – Syracuse +3
CFB – (139) OLE MISS at (140) ARKANSAS 3:30 ET SECN
If you are making college football picks, you are well aware Mississippi under Lane Kiffin is scoring points faster than the stock market these days. (OK, not that much, but you know what I mean.) At the same time, the Rebels are surrendering even more, 51.7 PPG. With Arkansas having ended their long SEC losing streak two weeks ago, and getting jobbed out of possibly winning at Auburn last Saturday, the Razorbacks have gone from +4 to +1.5. Though the Hogs are as well-coached as they’ve been in years, the Ole Miss offense is probably too strong for them to keep up with.
Betting Trend – 58% backing Ole Miss
Doug’s Take – Ole Miss covers
NFL – (251) CHICAGO at (252) CAROLINA 1:00 ET FOX
This NFC clash offers two rather surprising developments. Chicago is at 4-1, though not necessarily playing that way, and Carolina is over .500 and on a three-game winning streak. The Panthers were sent out as -3 point favorites, according to the NFL odds at various sportsbooks, but by Friday they had washed ashore at -1. The general belief is Carolina is overachieving and teams off three consecutive covers without a bye only beat the spread in the low 40’s percentile. Still, the Bears offense is sketchy, the running game ranks 27th, and they are taking on a Panthers squad that is 6-0 ATS off an upset win as an underdog.
Betting Trend – 54% backing Chicago
Doug’s Take – Carolina covers
NFL – (271) GREEN BAY at (272) TAMPA BAY 4:25 ET FOX
Totals players are feeling it -- Aaron Rodgers vs. Tom Brady -- and juiced the total from 52 to 55.5. Green Bay has the No. 1 offense in pro football at 38 PPG and Tampa Bay is hardly a slouch at 27.8 PPG. This is really tempting to go against because this matchup has such public support and we know they love Over’s. I’m going to curtail the inclination to go contrarian with the Pack 20-5 Over after four or more consecutive wins against the spread and the Bucs are 12-3 Over when the line is +3 to -3. Both trends land at 56 or more total points.
Betting Trend – 94% backing Over
Doug’s Take – Play Over
NFL – Monday - (275) ARIZONA at (276) DALLAS 8:15 ET ESPN
Evidently, bettors are unconcerned if Dak Prescott’s not playing, as the total for this old school NFC East confrontation is rising. (That’s right, the Cardinals used to be in that division, by way of coming from St. Louis). This NFC total has climbed three points to 55, and more than one bettor putting out NFL picks wonders how the Cowboys worst-rated scoring defense is going to corral Kyler Murray. Once again, I’d want to go lower. However, the Redbirds losing LB Chandler Jones will have a massive impact, and the Boys are 6-0 OVER after allowing 30 points or more in their last game.
Betting Trend – 80% backing Over
Doug’s Take – Play Over
Doug Upstone of Doc’s Sports has -21 Documented No. 1 Titles - 86 Documented Top 10 Finishes - 24 Handicapper of the Month Awards. Doug as a professional handicapper/writer has written for various well-known sports betting websites and several of the football newsletters you have read before.
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