College and NFL Football Biggest Line Moves for Sept. 12-13
Football is back! And like you, we couldn’t be happier. This week we begin taking a look at the biggest line moves in football. We will share our knowledge about how or why they occurred and offer free picks along with public betting trends on each contest.
Please take a look and see if you agree or disagree and let’s have fun.
CFB – (395) SYRACUSE at (396) NORTH CAROLINA 12:00 ET ACCN
North Carolina is considered on the upswing and among the best the ACC has to offer. Syracuse is coming off a 5-7 season and has two new coordinators who have not had the proper preparation to install a new offense and defense. With this, the Tar Heels have zoomed from -19.5 to -23 over the Orange. UNC will have a terrific offense, with holes on defense to start the year. The Syracuse offense will be better than expected and be able to move the ball on North Carolina. Expect the Orange to hang around the number and get the cover for college football picks. Note, sharp action has stepped up the last few days.
Betting Trend – 58% backing North Carolina
Doug’s Take - Syracuse covers
CFB – (397) CHARLOTTE at (398) APPALACHIAN STATE 12:00 ET ESPN2
Appalachian State changed head coaches again, but that has not interrupted their recent success. Charlotte covered this Sun Belt encounter last year in a wild 56-41 outcome, as the 49ers outgained the Mountaineers 526-463 while catching +23.5 points. Charlotte brings back most of its skill position players and has dropped from +20.5 to +17. Look for App. State to take the 49ers more seriously this year and they are 9-1 ATS the first half of the season the last couple of years and beat the college football odds.
Betting Trend – 81% backing Appalachian State
Doug’s Take – Appalachian State covers
CFB – (413) UL-MONROE at (414) ARMY 1:30 ET CBSSN
The Army was extremely impressive in shutting out Middle Tennessee 42-0, as everyone could not help but notice. The Black Knights will look to expose UL-Monroe in a similar fashion and they were bumped up from -16, all the way to -22.5. Army has two big advantages in this contest, first, they have a game under their belt, and next, their option offense is hard to defend unless you get great defensive penetration, something the Warhawks don’t figure to do. This matchup has a mixture of betting action by the public and those more astute. If UL-Monroe had a more experienced quarterback they would be worth a look, but they don’t. Heavy betting on the Black Knights as game time is approaching.
Betting Trend – 88% backing Army
Doug’s Take - Army covers
NFL – (465) CHICAGO at (466) DETROIT 1:00 ET FOX
Almost everyone in Chicago and a lot of sports bettors think Mitchell Trubisky is a complete bust. (I was shocked he went that high in the draft after what I saw of him in North Carolina). When the Bears predictably named him the starting quarterback, money came racing to Detroit and they went from -1 to -3. The Lions offense will be good; however, the Detroit defense has holes. Chicago has the better defense and while no Trubisky fan, I’d rather give the points then give them with Da Bears 4-0 SU vs. DEEtroit.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Chicago
Doug’s Take - Bears cover
NFL – (471) L.A. CHARGERS at (472) CINCINNATI 4:05 ET CBS
The NFL odds for the total have plummeted 4.5 points to 42 for this AFC affair and it is understandable why. The Chargers were 6th in total defense and go up against a talented, but rookie quarterback in Joe Burrow. The Bolts best defensive skill is applying pressure on the quarterback and with Burrow not seeing any live game action, that’s an issue. The Chargers offense is a work in progress with a new QB of their own in Tyrod Taylor This should stay below the 40-point mark, with my only concern, literally for all totals this weekend in football, is special teams’ breakdowns, that’s an unknown wild card.
Betting Trend – 62% backing Under
Doug’s Take - Play Under
NFL – (477) DALLAS at (478) L.A. RAMS 8:20 ET NBC
The total has climbed two points and passed the 50-point barrier and landed on 51.5. The past three meetings between these NFC rivals have easily been Over’s. Offensively, both have the ability to make this another Over. Here is my question on a number of totals this week. Will the lack of quality practices, no games and reduced hitting mean more scoring or help the defense with the lack of precision on offense? Let’s lean with the Over since defensive breakdowns are inevitable and both teams have skill players that can make plays, with 30-24 sounding like a good total against the NFL odds.
Betting Trend – 70% backing Over
Doug’s Take - Play Over
Doug Upstone of Doc’s Sports has 21 documented No. 1 titles and finished in the Top Ten 80+ other times in a distinguished career. Doug as a professional handicapper/writer has written for various well-known sports betting websites and several of the football newsletters you have read before.
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