Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Prediction, 12/1/2022 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 13

by Tony Sink - 11/29/2022

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Game: Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Date: Thursday, December 1, 2022

Location: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA

TV: Prime Video

Odds/Point Spread: Patriots (+5)

Total/Over-Under: 43.5

The Buffalo Bills (8-3) are headed to Gillette Stadium on Thursday where they will play the New England Patriots (6-5). New England opens this game as 5-point dogs from Vegas oddsmakers. The betting total comes in at 43.5.

The Buffalo Bills head into this matchup 8-3 for this season. In their last game, the Bills played the Lions and earned the victory with a final of 28-25. Josh Allen connected on 24/42 with 253 yards passing and 2 TDs. He had a quarterback rating of 80.8 and ended the contest with 1 pick. Isaiah McKenzie left with an average of 16.0 yards per reception by earning 96 yards on 6 receptions. Josh Allen led the offense in rushing for the Bills with 10 totes for 78 yards (7.8 yds per attempt). In all, they ran 74 plays which gave them 401 yards. The Buffalo Bills rushed the ball a total of 29 different times and had 164 yds, which had them averaging 5.7 yds per attempt. Against the run, the Bills conceded 96 yards on 28 attempts, which calculates to 3.4 yards per run allowed. Buffalo allowed 23 pass completions on 37 attempts for 230 yards, and a completion percentage of 62.2%.

The Bills currently have 4,575 total yards over the course of this season. Buffalo has tallied 156 first downs as a unit, and they have been called for 63 penalties for 484 yds. When it comes to getting the ball in the endzone, Buffalo has totaled 23 touchdowns via the pass and 10 touchdowns via the ground. They have surrendered the ball 19 different times (11 picks and 8 fumbles). As a unit they are averaging 136.7 yards in the run game which ranks them 8th in the league. When talking about getting in the endzone, the Buffalo Bills hold an average of 28.1 PPG.

The Bills rank 5th in the NFL when it comes to team defense, allowing 18.1 points per game. Opposing teams are running for an average of 4.2 yards per run and 105.6 yards on the ground per game this season. Over the course of this year, they have given up 1,162 yards via the ground game in 11 games. Concerning yards via the pass, the Bills have allowed 2,438 yards which ranks them 17th in the league. They have conceded 221.6 yards per game via the pass in addition to allowing a completion percentage of 64.5%. Overall, they are granting 327.3 yards/contest which puts them 12th in the league. They have yielded 14 touchdowns through the air as well as 8 touchdowns via the ground game.

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The Patriots head into this matchup 6-5 for this season. In their last game, the Patriots took a loss by a final score of 33-26 against the Vikings. Rhamondre Stevenson carried the football 7 times for 36 yards, ending the contest with 5.1 yds per attempt for New England. DeVante Parker had the best day in terms of receiving for the Patriots, catching 4 footballs for 80 yds (20.0 yards per reception). Mac Jones (2 touchdowns) finished the game with 382 yds on 28/39 passing while his quarterback rate was 119.8. He didn't throw any picks and his avg yards per attempt was 9.8 yds. New England relinquished 27 attempts on the ground for 57 yards (2.1 yds per rush). The Patriots pass defense gave up a completion percentage of 81.6%, relinquishing 301 yards on 31 for 38 passing. The Patriots finished with a total of 409 yds while they ran 55 plays (7.4 yards per play). New England ran the ball for 3.5 yards per attempt, finishing with 45 yds on 13 attempts.

The New England Patriots maintain an average of 325.9 yards/game which is good for 21st in the league. They are averaging 109.0 run yards per game and have run for 1,199 yards overall. The New England offense has 528 penalty yds on 66 infractions, which ranks them 14th in the league in terms of hurting your team. They have tossed 10 picks while allowing opponents to recover 7 fumbles and they have obtained 109 first downs. Over the course of the season so far, the Patriots currently have a total of 2,386 yards through the air as well as holding an average of 216.9 throwing yards per outing, which has them ranked 19th in the NFL. When it comes to their scoring prowess, the Patriots are sitting 18th out of all teams in the NFL by scoring 21.7 points per game.

The Patriots are relinquishing 18.4 PPG, which has them ranked 6th in football. They have given up 15 touchdowns from the passing game and 198.5 yards per contest, ranking them 9th in the league. In total, they have conceded 202 total points. New England has allowed a total of 1,202 rushing yards (109.3 yards per game) and 4 touchdowns by ground for the season. The Patriots defense taken the field for 681 plays, which ranks 8th in the league. Their defense has tallied 18 turnovers (6 fumbles recovered and 12 picks) this year.

Who will win tonight's Bills/Patriots NFL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Bills -5

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Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Prediction, 12/1/2022 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 13

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