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Thursday Night Football Picks: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys Best Bets

by Ryan Cobbett - 10/6/2026

Thursday Night Football picks Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys Dak Prescott

This week’s Thursday Night Football game features a matchup between two teams on opposite ends of momentum. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are headed to Arlington to take on the Cowboys with a big-time question mark at the quarterback position thanks to Baker Mayfield’s recent injury. Dallas, on the other hand, is coming off a huge last-second win to beat the Houston Texans and get back to .500 on the season. Tampa Bay will also be looking to pick up their first win of the new season, but doing so without their starting quarterback seems to be a tall task.

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Thursday Night Football Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys Game Odds:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +8.5 / Moneyline: +350

Dallas Cowboys: -8.5/ Moneyline: -455

Over/Under: 47.5

Thursday Night Football Tampa Bay Buccaneers Game Preview

Undrafted Rookie Jalon Daniels will make his second consecutive start in place of the injured Mayfield. Daniels did show flashes of his potential, but it was not enough to impress or get the win. He finished with 148 passing yards and two interceptions, though he did add another 55 yards on the ground and he recorded a touchdown. The defense really took a step forward and held Green Bay to just 283 yards, with only 86 of those yards coming on the ground. The defense also bailed out their quarterback as they too recorded two turnovers. Overall, the Buccaneers rank 28th in the league in YPG as they total just 278.3 YPG. Tampa Bay is also averaging a mere 19 PPG. Defensively, they have dominated. The Buccaneers have held opponents to just 282.8 YPG which is the fourth best in the NFL. They have allowed 24 PPG.

If the Buccaneers want to win, they need Daniels to continue to grow more comfortable and confident in his ability to pass, but also to tuck it and run. There is no denying his athleticism, but he will need to clean up the turnovers and make better decisions. One way they can do this is to establish the ground game as a nice complement to the rookie quarterback and avoid third and long scenarios. Bucky Irving should see a bit of an increase in carries as this is the clear path to a successful offense without Mayfield.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 Keys to Victory

  1. Protect Jalon Daniels
  2. Get Bucky Irving Going
  3. Contain CeeDee Lamb

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Injuries

TE Ko Kieft – Questionable

QB Baker Mayfield – Out

K Chase McLaughlin – Questionable

LB Anthony Nelson – Questionable

CB Benjamin Morrison – Questionable

LB SirVocea Dennis – Questionable

S Antoine Winfield Jr. – Questionable

Thursday Night Football Dallas Cowboys Game Preview

After a 1-2 start to the season, and coming off a very disappointing loss to the Baltimore Ravens, the Cowboys responded with an emotional victory over their in-state rival Houston Texans. After a back-and-forth 4th quarter, the Cowboys put together an 11 play, 74-yard drive in just 1:43 that resulted in a go-ahead touchdown to put them up by four, with just 40 seconds remaining. While the offense struggled to get going in the first half (just six points), they totaled 28 points in the second half alone, scoring on four of their five second half possessions. The elite players had to step up in this one and they did. Overall, the Cowboys offense has been one of the best in the NFL. They are tied with the San Francisco 49ers for second in the league in scoring (30.5 PPG), and they are averaging 347.5 YPG. CeeDee Lamb leads the league in receiving yards (498), and he has four touchdowns in as many games. The defense has once again struggled, allowing the third most YPG (389.5) through the first four weeks of the season, and they are allowing 28 PPG.

Dallas does not have to do a ton on offense to win this one. Even with the weaker defense, the Cowboys should still get some stops with the inexperienced rookie under center. They need to put pressure on him early and get Daniels rattled from the get-go. If they can get a couple of stops, they should have no problem wearing out this Tampa Bay defense and lighting up the scoreboard later in the game like they did against Houston. The Buccaneers will also be without Antione Winfield Jr. which means the secondary will be a whole lot weaker in this one. If they can avoid turnovers here, do not expect this one to be close at all.

Dallas Cowboys 3 Keys to Victory

  1. Get Dak Prescott & the Pickens/Lamb Duo Going from the Start
  2. Let Javonte Williams Dominate at the Goal Line
  3. Make Jalon Daniels Uncomfortable on the First Drive

Dallas Cowboys Injuries

LB DeMarvion Overshown – Doubtful

CB Cobie Durant – Doubtful

OT Drew Shelton – Doubtful

G Tyler Smith – IR

Thursday Night Football Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys Game Predictions

With the crucial injuries on the Tampa Bay sideline, I do not expect this one to be close. The Tampa Bay defense might be the best unit the Cowboys have seen this year, but the offense will get a lot of chances and time on the field due to the Tampa Bay offensive struggles. Expect Dak Prescott to find his favorite target a lot in this one as they build off their seamless momentum from a week ago. I do like the under in this one as the Cowboys are going to be a second-half team. The Buccaneer’s defense is tough so expect them to come out motivated and ready to bail out their growing backup quarterback and force a few stops. Ultimately, the Cowboys offense will prove too much here, and they should win by two possessions.

My Pick: Dallas Cowboys, -8.5 / Under 47.5

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