Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 12/23/2022
This season, I will be breaking down every Milwaukee Bucks weekday game and giving out my best bets for each contest. We may not always favor the Bucks. However, using my knowledge on the team, and the league as a whole, we will be able to churn a profit.
Doc’s Sports offers NBA expert picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.
On Wednesday, the Bucks fell to the Cavaliers 114-106. Giannis Antetokounmpo dropped a season high 45 points, shooting 17/27 from the floor, but it was not enough to get the job done. The rest of the team shot poorly, with Jrue Holiday going 3/12, Grayson Allen going 2/7 and Jevon Carter going 2/8. The Cavs played well defensively, and Donovan Mitchell put up 36 for the home team.
From a betting perspective, we went 1-1 on Wednesday. The Under 217.5 missed by 2 points, but Jarrett Allen stayed Under his 9.5 rebound prop, grabbing 8 boards. The Bucks play the Nets tonight, and the Celtics on Christmas, which will provide some huge betting opportunities, including a special Sunday article for the marquee matchup on the 25th.
Tonight, a visit to Brooklyn to take on the Nets (20-12) will be a difficult test for the Bucks (22-9). Antetokounmpo is listed as probable after picking up a knee injury, while Middleton is doubtful after missing their last 3 games. If the stars can’t suit up, the Bucks will have a slim chance of beating the red-hot Nets. The Nets got off to a rocky start this year, and former head coach Steve Nash was fired after the Nets posted a 2-5 record after the first 7 games. The public rift between him and star player Kevin Durant made headlines, with Durant openly requesting for Nash to be fired. The off-court antics don’t end there, as Kyrie Irving had once again made headlines, after sharing a discriminatory video on his Twitter, which led to a 6-game suspension.
However, things are starting to look bright in Brooklyn again. The Nets are on a 7-game win streak and have won 11 of their last 12 contests. They sit 4th in the Eastern Conference and can get within 1.5 games of first place Milwaukee with a win. Their stars have managed to stay out of the headlines and have been performing on the court. Durant leads the team with 30.1 PPG, while Irving is not far behind at 26.1 PPG, making them one of the most fearsome duos. Unfortunately for the Nets, they sold almost all of their assets to pick up these two, along with Ben Simmons, leaving the team screaming for depth. The third option on the Nets is Nic Claxton, with a league low 11.6 PPG for a third option. Durant and Irving have the firepower to get the job done, and they have shown they can take advantage of the lower tier teams. Their 7-game win streak all came against teams with a .500 record or worse, but a test against a fearsome Bucks squad will be an even harder challenge with few reliable scoring options.
For the Bucks, they are looking to right the ship after posting a mediocre 3-3 record over the last 6 games. Antetokounmpo continues to play at an MVP caliber and will be critical for the Bucks down the stretch. The real issue with the Bucks is Middleton’s return from injury. Middleton has not been able to return to his all-star form from last season, shooting a career low .325% from the floor. Middleton will need to step up his game if he wants to remain the second option on the Bucks, as he could find himself sliding down the depth charts if he can’t improve his shooting. He is doubtful tonight, and honestly, his inclusion or lack thereof shouldn’t sway the betting line too much.
This matchup will come down to the Nets stars. Milwaukee has the reliable depth to remain consistently solid, while the Nets rely on hot, yet dependable shooting from Durant and Irving. The Nets have struggled against the top of the NBA, since the elite defenders can lock up Durant and Irving and heavily reduce the scoring efficiency of the entire team. Unless a rotation player can unexpectedly drop 20 points, I expect the Bucks to win, and take down the Nets on the road.
This leads me into the first bet for the day, Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline at +130 for 2 Units. Despite the fact that the Bucks are on the road, I make this game a lot closer to 50/50 than the odds suggest. The Bucks will be missing Middleton, which is not a disaster, since Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez, and Bobby Portis are all more than capable of picking up the slack. The Bucks have the depth, the defense, and the will to win to take down the streaking Nets. Betting on a team to end a long win streak is never fun, but it can provide dividends, like when the Hawks ended the Bucks undefeated season.
The second bet for tonight is Brook Lopez Over 12.5 points for 2 Units. Lopez has eclipsed this mark in his last 3 games. And considering his willingness to shoot threes and crash the boards, I expect him to surpass this total.
Pick: Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline +130 2 Units
Pick: Brook Lopez Over 12.5 Points 2 Units
2022 Season record:
ML Record: 4-3
Spread Record: 5-7
Total Record: 3-6
Player Props Record: 10-8
Up 0.1 Units ($10)
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