2022 Super Bowl Opening Line Analysis
Cincinnati Bengals (10-7) @ Los Angeles Rams (12-5)
Spread: -4 (Rams)
It‘s official: the Los Angeles Rams will take on the Cincinnati Bengals in Super Bowl LVI. Los Angeles will host the Super Bowl at home and looks to follow suit of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year, who won at home in Super Bowl LV. The opening line between the Rams and Bengals are as follows: the Rams have opened as -4 favorites over the Bengals, with Super Bowl’s LVI total being set at 49.5. The money line is set at +164 for the Cincinnati Bengals and -196 for the Los Angeles Rams.
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The Cincinnati Bengals aren’t in unfamiliar territory as they go into their third straight game as underdogs according to Vegas, and in contrast the Los Angeles Rams season has been Super Bowl or bust since training camp in August. After picking up Matt Stafford and knowing the Super Bowl will be at SoFi Stadium, most of the league, media and fans believed Los Angeles had all the pieces in place to make a Super Bowl run, carrying very lofty expectations all year.
The opening line for the Super Bowl has already slightly been moving on some sites from 3.5 to 4 points. I would expect the line to keep moving up to around -5 points for the Rams and the total to move closer to 52.5 points by coin toss on February 13. The “way too early” reports are showing 67% of early bets on Cincinnati, with many choosing the Cinderella story hoping it will not come an end. The look-ahead total for this particular Super Bowl matchup was 51.5 points before Sunday's title games. The official opener hit the board at 50 points and ticked down 49.5 in the first hour of action. Since then, some books are dealing 49.5 (Over -115). Early consensus numbers show 52% of picks on the Under. The Rams on some sites have been tinkering up to as much as -200 on the money line and the Bengals to +170.
It will be interesting to see where this line goes over the next few weeks. Normally, sharp bettors are the ones betting early to try and take advantage of early line value. The square bettors normally jump in on the weekend of the game.
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