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Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Series Predictions with Betting Odds

by Spencer Toth - 5/16/2023

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics series predictions Jayson Tatum

The final two Eastern Conference teams will both be desperate to book their place in the NBA Finals. The Boston Celtics are on a collision course for the Finals, and have been heavy favorites to emerge from the East for weeks. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have formed one of the most fearsome duos in the league and will look to bring the Celtics their record setting 17th NBA championship. While the Celtics will be overjoyed they are avoiding the Milwaukee Bucks, the Miami Heat are certainly no pushovers. After taking down the regular season leaders in the Bucks by a score of 4-1, Jimmy Butler refused to take his foot off the gas, swatting aside the New York Knicks 4-2. Miami has the defensive capabilities to frustrate the Boston offense, and they will be confident they can reach the Finals for the second time in 4 seasons.

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The Celtics have no real weaknesses to their game, and it isn’t a surprise to see them on the brink of competing in the NBA Finals for the second straight season. The upper management has been patient with their young core and is reaping the rewards. This is Tatum and Brown’s 6th and 7th year with the Celtics, respectively, with both their points, rebounds, and assists consistently ticking upwards year over year. Tatum led Boston to a 2nd place finish in the East, with 30.1 PPG. While Brown is undoubtedly one of the best co stars in the league, this is still Tatum’s team. In the first round, the Celtics easily beat the Hawks 4-2, on the back of incredible offensive performances from both teams. Tatum dropped 27.2 PPG and posted 4 double doubles, but his work didn’t stop there. After falling into a 3-2 hole against the 76ers, Tatum shot 1-13 heading into the 4th quarter of Game 6, and the Celtics season was in serious danger of ending early. Tatum turned it around and sank 4 3’s and finished with 19 points. His momentum continued in Game 7, setting the NBA record with 51 points in a Game 7. The Celtics have the star power in Tatum, the assistance in Brown and Marcus Smart, the defense from Al Horford and Robert Williams. A well-rounded team ranked in the top 3 in offensive and defensive rating will never be out of a contest, and the Celtics are not only heavy favorites to advance to the Finals but are expected to lift the trophy at the season’s end.

The Miami Heat have repeatedly defied the odds and are somehow one of the final 4 teams remaining in the league. Just one month ago, the Heat were +13000 to lift the trophy, and have been languishing in the play-in positions all season. After dropping their first play-in game, which would’ve coincidentally matched them up with the Celtics, the Heat entered the postseason in the 8th seed. While they took home Game 1 in the first round, they lost Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo to long term injuries. The Bucks responded with a Game 2 beatdown, which saw them take a 33-point lead into the 4th quarter. When the season looked all but finished, Jimmy Butler stepped up. Butler put the team on his back and carried the Heat to 3 straight victories to take down the Bucks 4-1. He averaged 42.7 PPG in the final 3 games, shooting 60% from the floor and 45.4% from deep. There have been few players in history who stepped up like Butler in the postseason, and his heroics didn’t end there. In the second round, the Heat found themselves in a defensive battle with the Knicks. Solid shooting from Butler combined with a phenomenal game plan from Erik Spoelstra has put the Heat on the brink of becoming the second 8th seed to reach the NBA Finals.

Plain and simple, if the Heat can’t contain a dangerous Boston offense, this series will not be much of a contest. The Heat are in this position thanks to a real sense of defensive unity and clutch shots from Jimmy Butler. They will not be able to go toe to toe with Boston and get into high scoring battles, but rather limit their opposition's quality looks, and make timely shots from deep. Bam Adebayo will have his work cut out for him in the paint, as Williams is a fantastic shot blocker and board grabber. In the 11 games this postseason, Adebayo has only scored more than 20 points 3 times, and the Heat cannot afford offensive goose eggs from their second option on the court. On the defensive end, the task of shutting down Tatum will fall on the shoulders of who else, but Jimmy Butler. The Heat are not a good defensive team thanks to a few standout players, but rather their coaching, and work ethic. Their ability to switch and retain their matchups is unmatched and will all but certainly win a game or two against the Celtics.

While it has been fun discussing the Cinderella story Heat, the Celtics are far and away the better team. In the regular season, their defensive structure has been far more efficient than the Heat’s, which allowed them to collect an extra 13 regular season wins. Not only are Tatum and Brown capable of leading this team, but the value of a veteran presence from players like Horford cannot be overstated. The Celtics have had their eyes set on a second straight NBA Finals appearance. And as long as they don’t underestimate their opposition, they will emerge victorious.

Series Prediction:

In the second round, I anticipated a close series against the 76ers, and was correct after the Celtics prevailed by the narrowest of margins. Once again, I do not expect a blowout. The Celtics have struggled to string together lengthy win streaks, and will lose at least one, if not two games thanks to their inconsistency. Expecting more than that may be a stretch, but the Heat have been underestimated all year, and just keep finding ways to get it done. It’s easy to forget the Heat were the number one seed last season and fell to the Celtics in 7 games at the same stage as this year. Both teams have virtually the same lineups, and another close series will be on tap. While I’d love to say the Heat are going to continue to defy the odds and reach the Finals, I have no choice but to take the Celtics, in 6 games. With Butler on Tatum, the Heat will have no answer for Brown as I don’t trust Max Strus or Caleb Martin to slow down the Celtic’s All Star. An even battle in the paint, with talented guards squaring off in the backcourt, I expect Horford and the other wings to have an edge on Miami. Tatum will once again take a backseat, with the Celtics role players putting themselves 4 wins away from a championship.

Prediction: Boston Celtics in 6 Games.

Best Bets:

The Celtics are -575 favorites to advance, while the Heat have a very appealing +425 price tag attached to their victory. While I won’t be touching either of these lines, there are some bets I’m loving. The first one has to be Over 5.5 Games at -110. While I know a convincing Celtics victory is certainly possible, the Heat have never given up and will keep pushing, regardless of the scoreline. In most series, the Over 5.5 Games mark is in the -180 range, and we’re benefitting from the increased odds of a Celtics 4-0 or 4-1 win. Not only did the Heat take the Celtics to 7 games last season, but they knocked off the number one seed in the Bucks in convincing fashion. This one will not be over quickly.

While I won’t be touching the -575 price tag in this series, there are some interesting angles to bet on the Boys from Boston. The ‘Winning Conference’ market has the East and West both sitting at -110 odds, but if the Celtics advance, they will certainly be favorites against either of the remaining Western Conference opposition. Grabbing this appetizing price tag will save us some valuable dollars when betting the Finals in a few weeks time.

Best Bet: Over 5.5 Games -110

Best Bet: Winning Conference: East -110

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