Weekly Public Action Football Betting Report with Predictions (Fifth Edition)
Welcome to the fifth week of the Public Action Report (PAR), where we identify games that feature reverse line movement and focus on handicapping them. PARs are a great way to continue your mid/late week gambling. They highlight when a line moves opposite, or "contrarian", to the money being wagered. This discrepancy can often be a valuable piece of information as it's usually best to fade the public's betting option whenever possible.
It was a bit of a down week for us. We split on Friday night's games and then went 1-2 on Saturday. The Troy game was a heart-wrenching, spectacular failure that I watched. Losing by the hook is never good. To do so in the manner that Troy did was insanely frustrating.
We have a fair amount of games for the weekend, with games for both colleges on Saturday and the NFL slate on Sunday.
Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.
Virginia at Boston College (-3.5/53) Sat. Noon CW Network
A repeat performer in the PAR, the bettors seem to be firmly against Virginia, with NC State getting over 90% of the wagers last week and Boston College receiving 68% of the wagers and 76% of the money bet. The difference is last week the books backed Virginia and this week they're backing Boston College. The Cavaliers are 1-4 SU but 3-2 ATS in their last five matchups against the Eagles. This is a Boston College squad that lost to Florida State by just two points at home. They fare better against the Cavaliers. PICK: Boston College -3.5
Indiana at Maryland (-14.5/50) Sat. 3:30 PM Big Ten Network
This is a very interesting matchup to me, because even though I live in Virginia, I'm a Big Ten follower. Maryland opened as a 16-point favorite, yet after receiving 80% of the wagers and 84% of the money, dropped to 14.5-point favorites. The Hoosiers are only 2-2 but had played No. 3 Ohio State tight, holding the Buckeyes to only 23 points. The Terrapins, while undefeated, have had a significantly easier schedule. The Terps gain notoriety because of their 4-0 record and their starting QB is the Miami Dolphins's Tua Tagovailoa's little brother Taulia. As long as this number stays north of 14 points, I would take Indiana. Under that, wager at your own risk: PICK: Indiana +14.5
Houston at Texas Tech (-9.5/50.5) Sat. 3:30 PM FS2
The Cougars of Houston have received 81% of the wagers and 70% of the money, yet saw their cushion increase as they have gone from receiving 7 points to now receiving 9.5. Oddsmakers are much more impressed with Texas Tech's season-opening near win against Oregon, especially after Oregon dismantled Colorado. The Red Raiders are 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS in their last 7 meetings with Houston. Jump on this number before it goes to 10. PICK: Texas Tech +9.5
Hawaii at UNLV (-11/59.5) Sat. 4:00 PM No national broadcast
The public is backing Hawaii, with 62% of bets and 63% of money, while Vegas is backing its own, as UNLV moved from minus 10 to minus 11. This would have been an instance where I blindly followed Vegas. But upon digging, the trends also point to the Runnin' Rebels. They are 5-5 SU and 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games against Hawaii. The Rainbows play quite poorly when visiting Las Vegas, going just 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS in their last 10 visits to Sin City. This is also a UNLV team that covered against No. 2 Michigan. Pick: UNLV -11
No. 13 LSU at No. 20 Mississippi (+2.5/67.5) Sat 6:00 PM ESPN
When the Top 25 matchups occur in the PAR, special consideration must be taken. These types of games bring the most scrutiny, thereby giving the contrarian results even more validity. With 66% of the wagers and 62% of the money, instead of LSU's spread increasing, it dropped from -3 to -2.5. In their last 5 games hosting the Tigers, Ole Miss is 3-2 SU and 3-1-1 ATS. The Rebels have the 12th-best scoring offense (42 ppg) and 35th-best scoring defense (18.5 ppg) and held Alabama to 24 points last week. PICK: Ole Miss -2.5
Last week, I mentioned that the Houston Texans had the proper tendencies in wagering, just not the percentages needed. Turns out, maybe the percentages aren't as important, as Houston won as an eight-point underdog.
This week, the game that is discussed meets both criteria. The Miami-Buffalo game has the proper line moves, just not the proper percentages of betting. But to disclose, Buffalo has received the majority of wagers made and money, but instead of being 3.5-point underdogs, or greater, now Miami is only getting 3 points.
Baltimore at Cleveland (-3/40) Sun. October 1st, 1:00 PM
I will admit, there are times that games pop up in the PAR that puzzle me. The Ravens started out as a 1.5-point favorite and have received 69% of the wagers and 68% of the money. Yet, the line has moved to Cleveland becoming a field goal favorite. The Browns do have the best scoring defense in the NFL (10.7 ppg). While the Ravens are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games in Cleveland, as of late Baltimore has struggled against AFC teams, only going 2-5 in their last seven games against its own conference. I make no recommendations here, but this game bears an extra look.
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