Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Series Predictions and Best Bets

by Spencer Toth - 5/5/2025

The two MVP favorites face off in the best second round series of the NBA playoffs. Nikola Jokic has already proven he can carry the Nuggets to a championship, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will look to bring a very young OKC team to the NBA Finals. Denver had to fight hard to beat the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round of the playoffs and got what they needed from their role players. The fact that Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon were able to support Jokic made all the difference, and they will need more of the same against the Thunder. Meanwhile, the Thunder is a team full of prospects that are already delivering incredible results. Their +12.9 point differential in the regular season was the best of all time, and their demolition of the Grizzlies in the first round was no surprise. Can the Nuggets slow them down, or will it be another easy series for the Thunder as they march to the NBA Finals?

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Oklahoma City Thunder:

The Thunder have the potential to kick off what could be the greatest dynasty in the history of the NBA. They made it look easy against the Grizzlies with a 51-point demolition in game one before running away with the sweep. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the oldest player on the Thunder starting five at 26 years old, and the boatload of draft picks they have at their disposal has set the Thunder up for a generational run. They are already beginning to reap the rewards of a patient rebuild, as they have several generational talents that inferior franchises would sell their team for. Let’s start with the soon-to-be MVP. Gilgeous-Alexander led the NBA with 32.7 PPG in the regular season and was fifth with 1.7 steals. His dominance on both ends of the court has been somewhat overshadowed by the greatest of the Thunder, but there is no denying the impact he has on this franchise. Gilgeous-Alexander can drive to the hoop like no one else in the league, and he is reminiscent of prime Kyrie Irving once he finds his spot in the lane. He relies on the officials' whistle to get to the charity stripe with an astonishing 7.9 makes per game, and will need to be careful of the physical play the postseason brings with it.

Gilgeous-Alexander is incredible, but the talent in OKC does not end there. Jalen Williams has been exceptional at also getting on the scoresheet with 21.6 PPG this season. The 23-year-old is the only other player on the team with 5 or more assists alongside Gilgeous-Alexander and will be a crucial part of the Thunder’s playoff run. Chet Holmgren and Isiah Harternstein have revolutionized the two-big lineup in the modern-day NBA, as both are capable of vacuuming up rebounds on both ends of the court. Hartenstein has become more of a passer than he ever was earlier in his career, and has become a central point of this offense despite scoring only 11.2 PPG. Holmgren has been a menace on defense with 2.2 blocks per game, and can even drain the three ball too with 1.4 makes in the regular season. The veteran presence of Alex Caruso has helped settle the Thunder, and the frequent blowouts have allowed them to stay fresh and develop their rotation in garbage time all season long. OKC has the best defensive rating with the 3rd best offense, and there are truly no holes in their game heading into this series.

Denver Nuggets:

The Denver Nuggets will always have a chance to win with a healthy Nikola Jokic on the court, but there is no denying they are facing an uphill battle against the Thunder in round one. Jokic will be the best player on either roster in this series, but there are legitimate arguments that he is the only Nugget that would crack the Thunder’s starting five. Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon had great series against the Clippers, and the Nuggets will need to see their role players step up once again alongside Jokic.

The dominance of Jokic is nothing the league has ever seen. He became the first player in NBA history to finish top three in the league in points, rebounds, and assists. His +13.28 box plus/minus was the second best of all-time (behind his 2021-22 season), and he now owns four of the top five best individual seasons of all-time. Voter fatigue is likely to rob him of the MVP award this season, but he is still the best basketball player in the world. Jokic can effortlessly score the basketball from all three levels, and his no-look passes have dominated highlight reels for the last half-decade. He was able to lead the Nuggets to a championship in 2023, and would love nothing more than to add another ring to his finger before heading back to Serbia. We all know what Jokic will do in this series, and the Nuggets' upset aspirations rely on the rest of their stars to step up. Aaron Gordon delivered a clutch putback shot to steal game four and level up the series against the Clippers before Jamal Murray exploded for 8 triples to win game five. Jokic can’t do it alone, and plays like these will keep the Nuggets season alive against the Thunder. This team has the playoff experience and has an eerily similar roster to their 2023 championship-winning side, with Christian Braun replacing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. The Nuggets know they have what it takes to beat anyone in the league and will look to remind the world they are still the top dogs in the West.

Nuggets vs Thunder Series Predictions:

The Denver Nuggets may have the superstar talent with Nikola Jokic, but their lack of depth will allow the Thunder to swat them aside without too many problems. Holmgren and Hartenstein and capable defenders against Jokic, and the size the Thunder have on the inside will take away the easy shots for Denver. Murray may have exploded with eight threes in game five, but that doesn’t change the fact that the Nuggets sank the 28th most triples in the regular season. Oklahoma City’s towering duo in the paint will stop the easy shots, and the lack of three point activity will leave Denver with minimal options for reliable scoring. The Thunder will stop Jokic at all costs, and rely on isolation coverage against the rest of the Nuggets scorers.

Across the court, the Thunder have a legitimate ten-man rotation capable of punishing the Nuggets. The play of Luguentz Dort and Isiah Joe will not make them household names, but they are the best 8th and 9th men in the NBA. Compare that to Peyton Watson and Jalen Pickett on the Nuggets, and it is easy to see why the Thunder are massive favorites in this series. It is slightly worrying that Gilgeous-Alexander will be unable to get the calls he is used to in the postseason, but I don’t think that is enough to tilt the scales in favor of the Nuggets. Denver will probably be able to win either game three or four at home, but I expect that to be their only victory of the series. The Thunder will have their perfect record snapped, but they will not care as they cruise to the Western Conference Finals against either the Timberwolves or the Warriors.

Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder in 5 Games

Best Bets:

The Thunder are -750 favorites to win this series, and that is obviously a line we will not be touching. Even though it would take nothing short of a miracle for the Nuggets to win this series, we can’t rationalize a price like this on a future. The series spread of -2.5 games at -130 is an appealing option, but I also don’t think Nikola Jokic will get swept at the hands of OKC. Jokic has only been swept once in his career in 15 series, and that was in 2021 when Jamal Murray was injured. The Nuggets star talent will allow them to win a game, but an exact scoreline of 4-1 in favor of the Thunder at +200 odds is too good to pass up. The +200 odds give us a huge upside for what feels like an incredibly likely outcome that cashes more often than the implied 33% of the time.

For the second bet of this series, we will sprinkle on Gilgeous-Alexander to lead the series in threes at +500 odds. Gilgeous-Alexander has been known to drive to the paint this season, but the lack of whistles may force him to alter his game plan against the Nuggets. He didn’t hesitate to fire it from deep against the Grizzlies, and some expected positive shooting regression makes this a solid prop to attack. Don’t go crazy, as this is a wide open race, but a small sprinkle will offer a massive upside.

Top Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder to win in exactly 5 games: +200

Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to lead the series in threes: +500

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Start:	May 5, 2025 @ 7:30 PM
Expert:	Raphael Esparza (VSI)
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Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Series Predictions and Best Bets

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