Hot and Cold NBA Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 12/22/2025

by Spencer Toth - 12/22/2025

NBA hot and cold ATS and over under Giannis Antetokounmpo Milwaukee Bucks

The NBA Christmas Day slate is just days away. Some teams have hit their stride with the New Year around the corner, while others have been falling short. Over the last few weeks, certain teams have been red hot against the spread, and identifying those trends can be a great tool to use when making future NBA picks. Here are the hottest and coldest teams against the spread, with the highest and lowest scorers over the last few weeks.

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The Hot:
New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans have gone 9-1 against the spread in the last ten games, including four straight outright wins. Zion Williamson and others have returned from injury, which has turned New Orleans into a competent franchise instead of the laughing stock of the league. They have no first-round pick next year, so there’s no reason to tank, but they keep getting double-digit spreads. They have only been favored twice this season, and actually have one of the best spread records at 17-10-2 this year. This is a team that has started to win games, and even when they do lose, it is often a close affair. I don’t think the oddsmakers are in a hurry to put the Pelicans in the favorite role, which means this trend could continue for the next few weeks. Pick your spots carefully, but scooping up a boatload of points with the Pelicans has proven to be an effective strategy this season.

Boston Celtics:

The Celtics are in “The Hot” for the second straight week thanks to their consistent play over the last month. They haven’t struggled to win and cover with Jayson Tatum out, going 7-3 straight up and 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games. They were only favored in half of those contests, as the oddsmakers have hesitated to give them the credit they deserve with their best player out for the season. The Celtics still take and make plenty of three-point shots, and they still have the shooters needed to stay efficient from deep. A weak frontcourt has kept the Celtics in the underdog role, as they have figured out how to win without going into the paint. However, this is a streak that may not continue. Boston has the Pacers (twice), Trail Blazers, Jazz, Kings, and Clippers in their next six games, five of which are on the road. The Celtics have been able to consistently cover spreads in the home favorite role, but are only 5-4 as a road favorite this season. It is time for the oddsmakers to adjust to a contending Celtics team properly, and their inclusion in this column is likely coming to an end.

The Cold:
Cleveland Cavaliers

What is going on in Cleveland? After years of playoff disappointments since the LeBron James era, this was supposed to be the year the Cavaliers took the next step. A wide-open Eastern Conference had them with odds of -110 to finish as the top seed. Flash forward to today, and the Cavs are 15-14 with a 1-9 record against the spread in their last ten games. The oddsmakers haven’t given up on them yet, as they have been favorites in ten straight games. Their abysmal 1-9 against the spread record and not very impressive 3-7 record straight up make them an easy fade. Injuries are part of the problem, but the Cavaliers can’t use that as an excuse. They still have more than enough talent with Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, and Jarrett Allen healthy. I expect the Cavaliers to remain favorites against anyone outside the top ten in the league, which makes them the perfect fade until they turn things around.

Toronto Raptors:

The Toronto Raptors are making their second straight appearance in the “Cold” section. They have gone 2-10 against the spread in their last 12 games, with a 3-9 record to show for it. The injury to RJ Barrett coincides with their sudden cold streak, but the reality is that this team should be doing a lot better than they have been. Outright losses to the Nets, Celtics, Hornets, Lakers, and Hornets again, all in the favorite role, have been the driving force behind this terrible against-the-spread record. Scottie Barnes continues to thrive on defense, while Brandon Ingram appears to be the missing piece they needed on offense. However, the rest of the Raptors “Bench Mob” has failed to rise to the occasion. Until the Raptors get Barrett back, they will continue to operate as a bottom-ten team in the league.

High Scorers:

Denver Nuggets

The Denver Nuggets' offense is approaching historic levels, and the oddsmakers can’t keep up. You would think that having Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon out with injury would slow this team down, but that is not the case with a healthy Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets have gone 10-2 to the over in their last 12 games, posting an impressive 8-4 record in that span. The oddsmakers have tried to keep up with all 12 totals coming in at 233 points or higher, but the Nuggets' elite scoring and fast pace allow the over to continue its hot streak. Gordon and Braun are both capable defenders, so their looming returns won’t necessarily push these totals higher, but it is still impressive to see 124.7 PPG from Denver this year. While there is no reason to step in front of Denver with totals below 240 points, some tough defensive matchups in the near future could put an end to this streak. Take it game by game, but if Denver is facing off against a bottom-half defense, the overs will keep cashing.

Utah Jazz:

The Utah Jazz are on the other end of the spectrum. They have also gone 9-2 to the over in their last 11 games, but that has been due to truly terrible defense rather than a red-hot offense. They are still well outside the playoff picture in the West, and now Lauri Markkanen’s injury has just added insult to… injury. Four straight closing totals of 240+ points weren’t enough to slow down Utah, and a growing injury report will leave them even more short-handed on the defensive end. It is hard to trust their offense to do its part, but when they allow 130+ points each night, there is no reason to expect this trend to come to an end.
Low Scorers:

Milwaukee Bucks

Has Giannis Antetokounmpo played his last game for Milwaukee? The Bucks aren’t here thanks to a rock-solid defense, but rather a free-falling offense. The Bucks have stayed under the total in 8 of their last 10 games, averaging just 108 PPG in that span. The trade rumors around Giannis Antetokounmpo have derailed their season, as it appears that this round of mock trades and proposals has more legitimacy than ever. Another lengthy injury for Taurean Prince has gone from bad to worse, as this once mighty team is hovering in the lottery positions out East. The Bucks were getting totals in the 230s for the first couple of months this year, but the oddsmakers have caught up with six straight closing totals at 223 or lower. The Bucks’ three-point shooting trends have been remarkably abysmal, so a bit of positive regression back to the mean will get the Bucks back on track. If Milwaukee starts getting sub-220 totals, they will quickly depart from this column.

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets are well on their way to a tenth straight season without a playoff berth. They have gone 8-2 to the under in their last 10, as their offense is still faltering. A 5-5 record is nothing to be too ashamed of, but the return of LaMelo Ball was supposed to be a turning point for this team. Instead, they have needed to rely on their defense to scrape out wins, while Ball continues to flex his poor shot selection and ball security. No one expects Charlotte to run the table, but their offense needs to show a bit more life before they consistently get totals north of 230 points. They have had 15 straight games with a 227+ closing total, and it is no surprise to see them consistently cashing the under.

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Pick:	DRAW (+195)
Start:	December 27, 2025 @ 6:30 AM
Expert:	Doc's Sports

Analysis:

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Italian Serie A Take Parma/ Fiorentina DRAW (+195) (6:30 a.m. EST, Saturday December 27) Fiorentina is last on the table at position 20 and Parma is close to the relegation zone in position 16. These are two very bad sides, and their lack of offensive proficiency is a big reason why. The total here is heavily juiced to the under, and we agree with that assessment. This gives us two chances for the draw at 0-0 and 1-1. The last meeting was a 0-0 draw in April. These teams have played six straight draws in all competitions, and seven of their last eight meetings have ended in a stalemate. You rarely see odds under -200 for a draw, and when they are at this point you have to take a serious look at the matchup. Parma has been playing very solid defense lately but their offense has been stagnant, with only a single goal in their last two matches. Fiorentina busted out for five goals last time out vs. Udinese, but before that match they had 12 goals through 16 matches, so they are unlikely to repeat that performance here. With the history of the draw between these sides, we think that is a very likely outcome here. Read More Read Less

Hot and Cold NBA Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 12/22/2025

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