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2025-26 Miami Heat Predictions and Odds to Win NBA Finals

by Spencer Toth - 10/7/2025

Miami Heat predictions Bam Adebayo

The Miami Heat have managed to surpass preseason expectations in the past, but anything short of a miserable season in Miami would be a real surprise. The Heat’s season outlook was already looking bleak, but Tyler Herro’s recent injury, causing him to miss the first two months of the season, piled on the misery. Miami still has talent on its roster, and it finds itself in a wide-open Eastern Conference. Can the Heat pull off another miracle, or will their streak of six straight playoff appearances be snapped?

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Miami Heat Offseason Recap

Miami was very active at last year’s trade deadline and used this offseason to further retool its roster. In the wake of Jimmy Butler’s departure, Miami was left without a proven scorer, and they hope that Norman Powell will fill that void. Powell had one of the best years of his career in Los Angeles last season, and he is an incredible sharpshooter for Miami. His 21.8 PPG last year was a career high, and he has shot 41.8% or better from behind the arc in back-to-back seasons. His lack of creativity will be offset by Herro’s ball-handling skills, and he is a great addition to the Heat’s scoring. The trio of Andrew Wiggins, Herro, and Powell is a well-rounded backcourt and will leave the Heat in a position to compete in the East. 

While the Heat also picked up Precious Achiuwa, the positives in the offseason end there. Duncan Robinson has gone to Detroit, and his departure hurts the Heat's bench scoring. His defensive issues were a driving force in the deal, but his ability to electrify the bench unit made him a valuable member of the organization. Haywood Highsmith and Kyle Anderson both played 18+ minutes per game last year, and their departures will leave Miami shorthanded in the depth department. 

To wrap up their offseason, the Heat were given the unfortunate news that Tyler Herro will miss the first two months of the regular season. For a team that is expected to be in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race, an early-season hole will dent their playoff chances. The Heat’s thin depth will be tested early. 

Miami Heat Season Expectations

Any time a team trades its best player away, expectations will naturally take a significant hit. Jimmy Butler was an essential part of the Heat’s miraculous playoff runs, and it remains to be seen if their other stars can step up in his absence. With Herro out to start the season, a bulk of the scoring will fall on the shoulders of Bam Adebayo. 

Adebayo is capable of creating his own offense on the inside and can put up 20+ PPG on a nightly basis. He has introduced the three-point shot into his game as of late, but he does his best work on the interior. Adebayo has started to drift onto the outside when he is needed in the paint, and without Herro to be the primary playmaker, he will likely end up deploying a similar game plan this season. 

Once Herro returns, this team will be competitive in the Eastern Conference. Herro, Wiggins, and Adebayo are a formidable trio that are capable of sneaking into the playoffs. If the Heat can hover around a .500 record until Herro comes back, Miami may be able to pull off another playoff miracle. 

Miami Heat Schedule Breakdown

Miami kicks off the season with 6 of its first 8 games on the road, including difficult trips to Orlando, Los Angeles, and Denver. Their longest road trip is a five-game stint in the middle of January, as the Heat otherwise avoid lengthy road trips and long home stands. While there are no easy games in the NBA, the Heat have a relatively easy end to their season, which could prove significant for their potential playoff push. Their final eight games are all against Eastern Conference opposition, including a pair against the Wizards and two more against the Raptors, with other single matchups against the Pacers and Celtics. 

Miami Heat Odds

Miami has a win total of 37.5 this season and is expected to finish just outside the playoff picture after Game 82. Remarkably, the Heat have finished with at least 37 victories in all 17 seasons under head coach Erik Spoelstra. That hasn’t always led to a playoff berth, and the Heat have +140 odds to make the playoffs with -188 odds to miss the playoffs this season. The odds expect the play-in tournament to be a more realistic target, as the Heat have +100 odds to participate. The Eastern Conference lacks proven playoff contenders, and if they can make the playoffs, the Heat could be worth a dart throw at +5000 to win the East. Finally, Miami’s NBA Cup group features the Knicks, Bucks, Hornets, and Bulls. Miami has +600 odds to finish on top, and +6000 odds to go on to win the NBA Cup. 

2025-26 Miami Heat Season Predictions and Best Bets

Erik Spoelstra has seen a lot of change in Miami over his 17-year coaching tenure, but he has always kept this team competitive regardless of who is on the court. Admittedly, the task was easier with LeBron James leading the charge than with Bam Adebayo, but it isn’t the time to start doubting Spoelstra now. I expect the Heat to finish with a 39-43 record this season, and to sneak into the play-in tournament as a result. The obvious talent might not be there, but the Heat always stay competitive, and we will be betting them accordingly until we see otherwise. Anything resembling a deep run in either the NBA playoffs or the NBA Cup will be too much to ask. The Heat will be competitive against weak opposition in the regular season before bowing out in the first round for the third consecutive season. 

Pick: Miami Heat to Make the Play-In Tournament +100

Top Pick: Miami Heat Over 37.5 Wins -110

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