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MLB Betting Trends and Quarter Season Wagering Notes

by Ryan Cobbett - 5/23/2025

MLB betting trends Corbin Carroll Arizona Diamondbacks

The dog days of summer are fast approaching as the MLB season nears the end of its second full month of games. There have been many surprising storylines to follow as teams approach the 50-game mark in their schedules. With that, there is enough of a sample size to start making some educated selections on your bet slips. Let’s dive into the league leaders in various betting categories while also checking in on the homeruns race and a wild card bubble update.

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ATS Leaderboard

Overall

The best team at covering the Run Line is the Toronto Blue Jays, who are 31-18 ATS this season. They are joined by the St. Louis Cardinals as the only two teams to cover at least 30 games this season. While the Blue Jays ranks near the bottom third in the league in both ERA and runs, the Cardinals’ surprisingly productive offense has helped them cover more often than not.

Home

The Blue Jays are 18-10 ATS at home this season, which is also the best mark in the league. They are 16-12 straight up at home and they rank sixth in the league in runs scored at home. The San Diego Padres and Texas Rangers are both tied for second with 16 home covers, though the Padres have played just 24 home games compared to the Rangers having played 26.

Away

The Kansas City Royals are the current league leader in road covers. They have covered 16 of their 25 road games so far this season in large part because of their 3.23 road ERA, which is the second-best mark in the MLB. Behind them are eight teams tied with 15 road covers, but the Toronto Blue Jays have the second-best road Cover% at 61.9%.

Take Away: It is hard to fade the Blue Jays and Cardinals right now as both teams have found ways to get the cover. It may be time to stop sleeping on the Cardinals newfound offense. Additionally, the Royals pitchers haven’t been the reason the team is 11-14 on the road. They keep the games close even with their underwhelming run support.

Overs Leaderboard

Overall

The Miami Marlins and the Chicago Cubs are both tied with 29 Overs, but the Marlins have the better Over% at 60.4%. Though the Marlins lineup ranks 23rd in runs scored, their pitching staff’s league worst 6.30 ERA allows for some high scoring games. On average this season, the game total in Marlins games has been 10.4 runs per game. Hard to bet against that number.

Home

The Athletics have the best home Cover% (68%) in the MLB this season as teams are enjoying some extra at-bats in a MILB stadium. Through 25 games played in the Athletics temporary MILB stadium home, there have been 276 runs scored which averages out to be 11.04 runs scored per game. Foolish to not bet the Over at every Athletics “home” game.

Away

The Los Angeles Angels have the most road Overs at 18, but it is the San Francisco Giants who lead the league in road Over% (67%). The Giants rank 12th in both runs scored and ERA on the road, but the numbers don’t provide as much confidence as the Marlins historically bad pitching performance or the Athletics home game numbers.

Take Away: There are some highly favorable numbers to bet the Over in all Marlins games as their pitching staff is weak and their most talented pitcher, Sandy Alcantara, won’t finish the season with the team. It also seems like playing in a MILB stadium is fun for MLB players as teams score at will when visiting the Athletics.

Under Leaderboard

Overall

The Texas Rangers have seen the south side of the game total more than any other team this season. They have 35 Unders in 51 games this season. This is an easy thing to accomplish with an ERA that ranks third in the league (3.26) and an underachieving lineup that ranks just 27th in runs scored.

Home

The Rangers have failed to give their fans high scoring games this season. They have hit the Under in 21 of their 27 home games this season. Homeruns have been hard to come by at Globe Life Field as there have been just 43 longballs in 27 games.

Away

The New York Mets and Colorado Rockies are tied atop the MLB with 17 Unders on the road this season, but the Pittsburgh Pirates have the best Under% at 64%. The Pirates like to leave their plate production at home as they have averaged just 3.3 runs per game through 26 road games.

Take Away: The Rangers play in a pitcher’s park and with their pitching staff dominating the way they have through the first quarter of the season, they are the best team to follow if you are a fan of low scoring games and cashing in on game totals that fall under the line set for the game.

Wild Card Bubble Teams

AL

Houston Astros 26-24, +23-run differential / To Make the Playoffs- Yes: -140, No: +114

As it stands now, the Houston Astros are the first team out in the Wild Card race. They trail the Cleveland Guardians, Minnesota Twins, and Kansas City Royals by 1.5 games. They do have a better run differential (+23) than the Guardians (-10) and the Royals (+4), but the Astros are an older team and injuries like Yordan Alvarez missing nearly three weeks of action and Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti, Cristian Javier, and Luis Garcia all absent from the pitching rotation will severely limit this team in the long run. Houston will not make the playoffs this season as their winning window is going to be slammed shut by the end of the summer.

My Pick: No +114

NL

St. Louis Cardinals 27-23, +40-run differential / To Make the Playoffs- Yes: +250, No: -325

The Cardinals are currently four games above .500 and their +40-run differential ranks third in the NL amongst non-division leading teams. However, it is hard to see them ending up with a spot strictly due to there only being one winner in the NL East and NL West divisions while each division forecasts at least three teams who could claim the division title. The Braves and Diamondbacks are off to slower starts, but the Padres, Mets, and Giants are already keeping the Cardinals on the outside looking in and it will only get worse as the Braves and Diamondbacks get back to playing well. Unless the Cardinals go all in on some deadline additions, there is no way they find themselves in the playoffs this season.

My Pick: No -325

Regular Season Homerun Leader

As teams approach the 50-game mark, there are two players tied for the league lead in homeruns and that is Kyle Schwarber and Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani has clubbed 17 homeruns despite playing two less games than Schwarber. Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh are both tied atop the AL and tied for second in the MLB with 16 homeruns to this point. Corbin Carroll rounds out the current Top Five with 15. The two obvious favorites to lead the league in homeruns are Ohtani and Judge who finished first and second last season. Judge is the current favorite at +110 despite trailing Ohtani and Schwarber. Despite what the numbers say, Ohtani has a lot more protection in his lineup and will likely get pitched to a lot more than Judge will over the course of the season. Paul Goldschmidt, Trent Grisham, and Cody Bellinger are all producing at unexpected levels this season for the Yankees, but that is expected to cool which in-turn would leave Judge more vulnerable to the free base. Give me Ohtani to usurp Judge this season as the Homerun King.

My Pick: Shohei Ohtani +190

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