NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 5: Advice and Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 10/1/2025

NFL survivor pool picks Week 5 Daniel Jones Indianapolis Colts

Four weeks down, 14 to go. Surviving an entire season is no easy task in the NFL, and there were a few major upsets last week that sent some entries packing. The Los Angeles Chargers lost as -6.5 point favorites, while the Packers tied the Cowboys, knocking out anyone who had either side. We played it safe last week with the Bills over the Saints, while our contrarian pick of the Dolphins over the Jets also won. There are a few solid options to choose from, but life will not be easy over the next month with the bye weeks kicking off this week. All that matters is advancing to the next week, and here are your Week 5 survivor pool picks ranked from most to least confident.

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Detroit Lions (-10.5) Over Cincinnati Bengals

Detroit’s electric offense will not be contained, as the Bengals have really struggled on the defensive side of the ball. This one could quickly turn into a blowout and is a great option. They are the biggest favorites of the week for a reason, but we will be saving the Lions for a future week. Detroit has a few winnable games in the near future, and there are a couple of other options this week that I feel comfortable risking our survivor pool lives on.

Indianapolis Colts (-6.5) Over Las Vegas Raiders

This will be our official survivor pool pick of the week. The Colts could have beaten the Rams last week, and have been the better team all season long compared to the Raiders. Geno Smith already has seven interceptions this season, and a hungry Colts defense will add to that tally in this one. Indianapolis has been red hot to start the season, but this winning streak may be tough to sustain later in the season. This is the second-most confident pick of the week, and we are using up a team we are unlikely to need in the future.

Arizona Cardinals (-8.5) Over Tennessee Titans

The Titans' offense is abysmal. Cam Ward has gotten no help from his offensive line, and the Titans will continue to struggle against a stout Cardinals defense. However, Kyler Murray and the Cardinals offense haven’t been lighting the world on fire, so this one may come down to the final possession. I trust the Cardinals to get it done, but I am staying away from this one for the official pick this week.

Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) Over New York Jets

Don’t let a short spread fool you. Dallas is a great pick for your survivor pools, and may have been our choice this week if we hadn’t already used them in Week 2. The Cowboys' offense is one of the best units in the league, and the Jets will be unable to keep up. Justin Fields lacks the deep ball threat to score points in a hurry, and the Cowboys will ride off with a crucial road win while keeping the Jets winless. If you are looking to avoid the big dogs this week, taking Dallas as a contrarian pick is a great idea.

Buffalo Bills (-8.5) Over New England Patriots

Josh Allen is well on his way to a second straight MVP award, and beating the Patriots at home shouldn’t be too difficult. Allen is a one-man wrecking ball on offense, and he does a great job at spreading the ball between his pass catchers. New England’s secondary has looked vulnerable, as Christian Gonzalez hasn’t been able to elevate their defense to the level expected. Buffalo will be a big favorite many times this season, so unless you are in a real jam, don’t pull the trigger here.

Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) Over Denver Broncos

The Eagles consistently find ways to win when they aren’t at their best, and they could be due for a blowout against Denver. Bo Nix is playing good, not great, football, and the Broncos’ defense hasn’t been the dominant unit it was expected to be. Philadelphia has a level of physicality that the Broncos have yet to see this season, and is another good pick for this week. However, the Eagles have several games where we may need them this year, so I would save them for another day if possible.

Los Angeles Rams (-7) Over San Francisco 49ers

The Rams' only defeat came against the Eagles this season, and they are unlikely to lose at home against the banged-up 49ers. San Francisco has too many injuries on both sides of the ball to keep up, and Los Angeles is a good pick this week. Their schedule is pretty difficult the rest of the way, so they could be a sneaky pick this week.

Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) Over Cleveland Browns

Fading the Browns has been an effective survivor pool strategy over the years. This season looks like it will follow that trend, as the Vikings' defense will completely shut down Joe Flacco in London. This could be the game that convinces Kevin Stefanski to turn to his rookies, but either way, taking the Vikings this week isn’t a bad choice.

Seattle Seahawks (-3) Over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Seattle has turned Lumen Field into a fortress and will be able to disrupt the Buccaneers' offense more often than not. Tampa Bay relies on audibles more than most teams, so the atmosphere could play a huge role in determining the victor on Sunday. Sam Darnold continues to be doubted, but he continues to silence the haters with consistent play on the field. The lack of the Buccaneers' pass rush will give Darnold time in the pocket to pick out his talented receivers.

Houston Texans (-1.5) Over Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens' defense is not good enough to make up for the fact that Lamar Jackson will not be suiting up. Their offense has been needed to bail them out, and they now come up against a Texans team that just shut out the Titans. This is too risky for a survivor pool pick, but I am fairly confident the Texans will walk away with a win.

Washington Commanders (+2.5) Over Los Angeles Chargers

Joe Alt will be missing this game as the offensive tackle injuries pile up for Los Angeles. Once you add in the fact that Jayden Daniels will be back and hungry for this game, the slight lean goes to the Commanders. However, this is a game that should just be left alone.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) Over Kansas City Chiefs

This one should be left alone. There is no reason to burn the Chiefs in this matchup, and the Jaguars will have much easier games down the road. The slight nod goes to Jacksonville if you really want to get crazy, but you should probably just stay away.

New Orleans Saints (-1.5) Over New York Giants

If you take either of these teams in your survivor pool, you are just asking for trouble. There are only 18 weeks and 32 teams to choose from, so touching these bottom-five teams is not necessary and should be avoided altogether.

Carolina Panthers (+1.5) Over Miami Dolphins

These are two bottom-ten teams that have been inconsistent this season. One week, they are dominating, and the next, they are getting dominated. That kind of volatility should be avoided, and you won’t lose sleep over missing out on either of these teams, either.

Official Pick of the Week: Indianapolis Colts Over Las Vegas Raiders

Contrarian Survivor Pool Pick of the Week: Dallas Cowboys Over New York Jets

Teams Used: Denver Broncos, Dallas Cowboys, Seattle Seahawks, Buffalo Bills

Status: Alive

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Start:	October 1, 2025 @ 6:10 PM
Expert:	Vernon Croy
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