NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 6: Advice and Predictions
The first major survivor pool upsets went down last week, but if you followed the Doc’s Sports column so far, you are still alive. Less than 25% of survivor pool entries remain, as Week 5 claimed more than 60% of the Week 4 survivors. We correctly identified that the Rams were on upset watch, and they lost as 7-point favorites against the 49ers last week. That will have eliminated a good chunk of your opposition, as will the Cardinals' defeat against the Titans as 8.5-point favorites. Other notable favorites to fall were the Bills (-7.5), Eagles (-4.5), Seahawks (-3.5), and Chiefs (-3).
Our pick last week, the Indianapolis Colts, won by 34 points in an easy win over the Raiders. The contrarian pick of the week was the Dallas Cowboys over the New York Jets, which was another sweat-free win. It is not the time to start celebrating now, as there is still a long way to go before we can claim the ultimate prize. Without further ado, let’s jump straight into the survivor pool picks for Week 6, ranked from most to least confident.
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Green Bay Packers (-14.5) Over Cincinnati Bengals
The Packers are the biggest favorite of the week, and we will be tailing them for our official selection this week. We saw in Week 5 that nothing is guaranteed in the NFL, but this feels as close to a sure thing as we can get. Joe Flacco will likely start for the Bengals, who already have a win over the Packers this year, but Flacco played poorly against the Green Bay defense. The Bengals' defense is far worse than Cleveland's, and 13 points from Flacco won’t be enough to get the win this time around. The Packers do have other winnable games on their schedule we could have saved them for, but one in the hand is better than two in the bush. There aren’t too many other games I am incredibly confident in, so we will take the Packers this week.
Denver Broncos (-7) Over New York Jets
If you want to stay away from Green Bay this week, taking the Broncos over the winless Jets is another solid option. Denver is the better team on both sides of the ball in this matchup, and cannot afford to lose games like these if they hope to compete in the AFC West. Justin Fields has been playing well for the Jets, but their abysmal defense will allow Bo Nix to flourish. The Broncos are a safe option this week with a schedule lacking other clear-cut options. We already used them in Week 1; otherwise, they may have been the official selection to keep Green Bay in the back pocket.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) Over Cleveland Browns
The Steelers can extend their lead at the top of the AFC North when they welcome the Browns to town. Their gritty style of football will be able to overwhelm Cleveland, and this is a rare time when we can confidently tail Pittsburgh. It has been hard to get a read on the Steelers this season, but it appears as though they have finally found an offense capable of matching their defensive intensity. There won’t be many layups for Pittsburgh this season, making them a great pick with the future in mind.
Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) Over Baltimore Ravens
This one is obviously assuming that Lamar Jackson will not be playing. If you have to lock in your pick before that is confirmed, stay away from this matchup. Otherwise, the Rams should be able to swat aside Cooper Rush and the Ravens. Los Angeles has extra rest after playing on Thursday in Week 5 and will have extra motivation after losing to their division rivals. Baltimore will be playing desperate football, but the Rams aren’t a bad option if you’ve used the previously mentioned teams.
Dallas Cowboys (-3) Over Carolina Panthers
The Cowboys will be able to keep beating up on bad teams while struggling against the top dogs. Their explosive offense will be too much for the Panthers to overcome, as Dak Prescott is playing vintage football with his star receiver still out. Carolina doesn’t have the defense to contain Dallas, nor do they have the offense to match. It’s a short spread, but the Cowboys can be trusted with your survivor pool life at this stage of the season.
Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) Over New York Giants
A divisional game where we are tailing the road team always raises red flags. However, the gap in class between these two sides will be enough to overcome that fact, as the Eagles find a way to win on Thursday night. Jaxson Dart had a feel-good debut, but came crashing back to reality last week against the previously winless Saints. The Eagles are coming off a brutal loss to Denver and will take out their frustration on New York. The Eagles have a very tough schedule this season, so taking them as a big favorite may not be a bad idea.
New England Patriots (-3) Over New Orleans Saints
Both of these teams may have won last week, but one did so on the road against a Super Bowl favorite while the other did so against Jaxson Dart and the woeful Giants. New England is still the better team on both sides of the football and is a surprisingly safe choice this week. Drake Maye is responsible for the football, and that is what you are looking for when risking your survivor pool life. This will be our contrarian pick of the week if you are looking to avoid the heavy favorites.
Buffalo Bills (-4.5) Over Atlanta Falcons
The Bills will be fuming after losing to New England, and they have the run defense needed to slow down the Atlanta ground attack. The Falcons' offense is helpless unless Bijan Robinson gets going, and I expect the Bills to make the Falcons beat them through the air instead. While this is a relatively confident pick, there is no reason to use the Bills this week. Buffalo has a very easy schedule over the next two months, and this is a team you will want to save if you haven’t used them already.
Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5) Over Tennessee Titans
If you are playing the very long game, using the Raiders is a decision that could pay dividends later this season. Las Vegas is a sizable home favorite over Tennessee, which only won last week thanks to miscues from the Cardinals. Using up the Raiders will not come back to haunt us down the road, but surviving to Week 7 is the primary target. We can’t trust Geno Smith to snap his four-game losing streak against anyone right now, and recommend staying away.
Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) Over Miami Dolphins
The Chargers' offensive line has me worried in this matchup, but they should still be good enough to beat the lowly Dolphins. Miami’s defense blew another massive lead last week and will not be getting any better against Justin Herbert. The Chargers are still legitimate Super Bowl contenders, and cannot afford to be losing games like these.
Indianapolis Colts (-6.5) Over Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals' three losses this season have all come on time-expiring field goals. That makes them an upset threat against the overperforming Colts coming off a blowout victory. We can’t fade Indianapolis given how they have been playing, but I wouldn’t recommend using them this week as this matchup smells fishy.
Washington Commanders (-4.5) Over Chicago Bears
The Commanders will be hoping to give the Bears nightmares after their Hail Mary win last season in this matchup. Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels will put on a show, and we will side with Washington. However, given the injuries to the Commanders' receivers, this is one to stay away from unless you have no other choice.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) Over San Francisco 49ers
Tampa Bay keeps finding ways to win football games, but the same can be said about San Francisco. Both of these teams are very unpredictable every week, and can be hard to trust against one another. The lean goes to Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers, but you should be looking for a bigger favorite than this in Week 6. Once you add in the fact that the Buccaneers have a very easy schedule in the NFC South, this becomes one you should avoid.
Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) Over Detroit Lions
There is no reason to use either of these teams. They are both contenders facing off against one another, and we will want these teams saved for later in the season.
Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) Over Jacksonville Jaguars
I cannot get a read on this matchup. Jacksonville’s offense came to life against the Chiefs, but they looked terrible on the defensive side of the ball. A similar story went down in Seattle last week, when the Seahawks lost 38-35 to Tampa Bay. Just stay away and look elsewhere.
Official Pick of the Week: Green Bay Packers Over Cincinnati Bengals
Contrarian Survivor Pool Pick of the Week: New England Patriots Over New Orleans Saints
Teams Used: Denver Broncos, Dallas Cowboys, Seattle Seahawks, Buffalo Bills, Indianapolis Colts
Status: Alive
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