Thursday Night Football Picks: Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

by Mike Allen - 12/9/2025

The disappointing downfall of the Atlanta Falcons is at least somewhat explainable, but what in the world happened to the former MVP candidate Baker Mayfield and his Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

After defeating the San Francisco 49ers at home in T-Town back in Week 6, the Bucs have gone 2-5, with their only victories coming against the Saints and the Arizona Cardinals. They, of course, were avenged last week by New Orleans in a game where Mayfield threw for a grand total of 122 yards.

Hey, that’s 81 more yards than he had against the Rams just a couple of weeks prior. Something hasn’t been right with Mayfield for a while now. We’ve seen him nursing his non-throwing shoulder, but it really seems like the problem is more serious than that.

Maybe it’s another injury. He could be concussed and just slipping by the protocol. It’s hard to say, but it’s apparently equally as difficult for this team to get a win.

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The secondary has been eviscerated, which, of course, doesn’t help matters much. However, the last couple of years, we’ve at least been able to count on Tampa to match you in a shootout.

As rough as it’s been, though, this team still has close to a 75% chance to make the postseason. That’s pretty wild when you consider a wild-card berth is virtually impossible with the Niners, Seahawks, Bears, and Lions all ahead of them.

Tampa has the same record as the Carolina Panthers, and the two teams still have to play one another twice this year, yet it’s the Bucs at 73% and Carolina at 27% to make the playoffs. I mention this because this game isn’t necessarily a must-win for the Bucs. The upcoming games against the Panthers next week and the final game of the season are the most important.

Is this a look-ahead spot for them? I don’t think so. They’ve not only lost four of five games. They’ve completely lost their way.

The job of head coach Todd Bowles is potentially on the line if this team doesn’t make the playoffs. I don’t think they will get rid of Mayfield and keep the coach. Do you? What the Bucs need is a get-right game.

Enter the 4-9 Atlanta Falcons. Their head coach, Raheem Morris, is undoubtedly on the chopping block. I’ve been calling for this guy’s head for a couple of years now. He has some of the worst in-game decisions I’ve seen in recent memory.

First, they blamed the pre-Cousins era, then Cousins, then Michael Penix Jr., but the gig is up. Maybe he’s an emotional leader, and the team rallies for him down the stretch. I can’t count on that, though, and you shouldn’t either.

If you’re going to bet the Atlanta Falcons from here on out, it should be in a sell-high spot for their opponent, and Thursday Night Football’s matchup in Tampa is the opposite of that.

Atlanta Falcons (+4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4)

This line opened up at 5.5, and the pros once again have come in on the Cousins-led Falcons. This is with star wide receiver Drake London listed as day-to-day, according to the head coach Morris.

A PCL strain is not something to play with, and why would they? Even if Morris is a lame duck, I’ve never questioned his heart. Multiple sources have come out today, Tuesday, and said the outlook is bleak at best for him to play.

Point Total: 44.5

Moneyline Odds

Falcons: +185

Buccaneers: -225

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Analysis

This isn’t X’s and O’s time. This is the time for the Bucs to get right. I don’t care how they do it, but I believe in them to make it happen this week. They’re the better team on a short week, playing at home, against a team eliminated from postseason play, and sitting their best receiving target.

The Bucs’ weakness is the pass, and Atlanta doesn’t have the gun or the bullets. Tampa doesn’t need rest. They need rhythm and momentum.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Pick

Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4)

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Start:	December 10, 2025 @ 11:00 PM
Expert:	Griffin Murphy
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