Thursday Night Football Picks: Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans

by Mike Allen - 11/18/2025

November is flying by, but it’s not quite time to watch the old reels of John Madden, see the turkey legs being handed out, and most importantly, watch the de-loved Cowboys or the hated Chiefs lose.

With our luck, it’ll be a tie. In all seriousness, though, KC is just about 60% to make the playoffs right now, as they sit at 5-5 after a crushing loss to the first-place Broncos on Sunday. With Dallas virtually eliminated, I lean heavily toward the Chiefs as we look ahead to the Thanksgiving holiday.

Another first-place AFC team from 2024, the Houston Texans, is in an even more desperate spot than KC, as they’re only about 40% to make it as we speak. That means, this Thursday is a do-or-die spot for them.

There’s good news and bad news for the Texans this week. With the bad news first, they have to play Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills, who just put up 44 points at home in a showdown against Baker Mayfield and the Bucs.

The good news is they get to stay home on this short week. A trip to Buffalo right now, to potentially play in harsh conditions, could be a death sentence for Houston.

Texans' starting quarterback C.J. Stroud was beginning to get into his first rhythm of the season with Nico Collins back in the lineup, and boom, now he goes down with a concussion.

Over the past three games, though, backup Davis Mills has filled in effectively. They lost by a field goal against the Broncos but followed that up with division wins over the Jags and Titans.

Just minutes ago, it was announced that Stroud is ruled out for this week's game. This would make the betting pick that much easier. However, it got a little harder.

Let’s look at the point spread, the total, as well as the moneyline odds, and make a Week 12 Thursday Night Football pick for the Bills vs Texans game.

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Buffalo Bills (-6) at Houston Texans (+6)

The lookahead line for this game was actually (-2.5) for the Bills. That was when it was expected that Stroud wouldn’t miss an entire month. Those life-changing headaches can be tricky, though.

I waited for the news and started writing, and the line has already moved from (-5.5) to (-6) in favor of the Bills.

Point Total: 43.5

With Stroud out, we have to look toward the under here. The Texans are a stone-cold under team right now, but you could almost say the opposite about Buffalo.

Moneyline Odds

Bills: -270

Texans: +215

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans Betting Analysis

Some people I highly respect are on the Texans this week. They made the call when they thought Stroud would probably play, though. I understand the spot is nearly 100% in favor of the Texans.

The Bills are coming off a physically and emotionally draining win over the Bucs. Allen looked like himself in that, but a bit too much like his old self, making poor decisions with the football.

The Bills are beating people about 29-23 this season, but on the comeback, we have the Texans, who are winning big as well, with an average game looking like 22-16.

With Buffalo struggling mightily against the run this season, there is a worry that the Texans’ offense could match the Bills into the 2nd half, and if that happens, the Buffalo cover is in big trouble.

The elephant in the room is the Texans' defense, potentially the best in the league. With either this unit or the Mills-led Texans on either side of the action, how can you not lean under?

So far, 87% of the money has come in on the Bills, but that was when the line was lower. The nose just can’t be squeezed tight enough for me to take Houston here, even with the inflated line value.

Nico Collins is the MVP of that offense, and Mills knows how to find him. The Texans already have outputs of 9 points, 10, 15, 16, 19, and 19, though, including the Titans game. That's pitiful. Buffalo is weakest against the run, and if the Bills can build a two-score lead, the Texans will have a hard time coming back.

Also receiving 87% of the money is the under, and the line hasn't moved yet. I'm surprised, but jump on it now at 43.5. I think we finish somewhere around 20-16.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans Betting Pick

Pick: Under 43.5 Points

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Start:	November 19, 2025 @ 11:00 PM
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Thursday Night Football Picks: Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans

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