Thursday Night Football Picks: Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions

by Mike Allen - 12/2/2025

The Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions appear to be two teams headed in opposite directions, at least as far as the 2025 season is concerned. Injuries have really caught up to Detroit at this point.

Last year, it was the defense that was banged up down the stretch. It hurt them, of course, because they couldn’t stop Jayden Daniels and the Commanders from running up the score in the playoffs.

However, the Lions' identity is 80% offense, and they are not clicking on that side of the ball right now. Head coach Dan Campbell is famous for his aggressive style of play. Since he took over the play-calling duties in Week 10, the Lions are 0-7 when going for it on 4th down.

It's hard to say how he's done overall, as the team is banged up, as we said. Plus, their wins came against the struggling Commanders and Giants, while they lost to Philadelphia and, for the second time this season, the rival Packers a week ago.

I started working on that game last week, and halfway through, I gave it the old typewriter treatment, balling up what I wrote and throwing it out. I then proceeded to jump in front of a stampede of Cowboys, and 'Dem Boyz played their best game of the season.

Aging owner Jerry Jones has taken a lot of flak the past few seasons, particularly this year, when he traded away one of the top defenders in the NFL, Micah Parsons, to the Green Bay Packers.

Lately, though, the old man is starting to look, dare I say, reborn, up there in his suite. I've never been a fan of the guy, but you have to give him credit. In a league where many owners don't seem to care as much as fans would like, nobody has, nor will they ever be able to say that about him.

The move to have Quinnen Williams plug up the middle has made the most significant difference for them, and linebacker Logan Wilson is playing his butt off, too. The Dallas Cowboys are the most improved team in the league from the first to the second half of the regular season.

With all that being said, the betting spot this week screams “Get right game” for the Detroit Lions. This looks like the optimal sell high spot on Dallas, while getting Detroit at a field goal or less at home.

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Dallas Cowboys (+3) at Detroit Lions (-3)

The lookahead line for this game was (-5.5), but after seeing the Lions struggle on Thanksgiving and Dallas look fantastic, we even got down to (-2.5). That’s where it was when I glanced at it on Monday. That line wasn’t around for long, though.

With the public likely watching both teams play last week, I don't see this one getting to 3.5 by kickoff.

Point Total: 54.5

Moneyline Odds

Cowboys: +135

Lions: -165

Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions Betting Analysis

Remember, this isn't a short week for either team, as they're each getting the typical week off from play. We mentioned the Lions' injuries on the offensive side of the ball. Star wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown will be out this week.

That’s huge for Detroit, as they really aren’t used to playing without him. The Lions are banged up on defense as well, though, particularly in the secondary.

Even if they can stop the Dallas rushing attack early, it’s hard to imagine them slowing down Dak Prescott and what could be the best wide receiver duo in the league, George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb.

I'm looking at the team stat lines for the Packers vs. Lions game on Thanksgiving, and they look like mirror images of each other. Virtually the only difference was that the Pack was 2-2 in the red zone and Detroit was 2-3.

It’s time to hold your nose, though. Dallas will be in a dome again, yes, but they still aren’t the same team on the road as they are in Big D.

The Lions haven't looked great against Philly and Green Bay, but those are two of the best defenses in the NFL. Detroit stretches the Cowboys' defense from sideline to sideline with Jahmyr Gibbs, and we finally begin to see the emotional high take an adrenaline dump for Dallas.

Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions Betting Pick

Pick: Detroit Lions (-3)

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Thursday Night Football Picks: Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions

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