Thursday Night Football Picks: Kansas City Chiefs vs Dallas Cowboys

by Mike Allen - 11/25/2025

Happy Thanksgiving Week, America! Regardless of your gluttony level, Thanksgiving is arguably the most underrated holiday in the USA. Some would say New Year's Eve, but it’s what you make it.

July 4th and Memorial Day are awesome. There's sun, surf, bikinis, and beers. That said, those holidays are still missing one critical component. I'll give you a hint. It's not cranberry sauce.

You guessed it! Thanksgiving has football, and you don’t have to do any shopping or pretend to love a lame gift you’re really about to sell on eBay, so that you can buy your wife and kids something better.

This Turkey Day, football fans have the opportunity to make history. The middle game on Thanksgiving between the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys is expected to be the most-watched regular season NFL game of all time!

What two teams are loved AND hated more than these two? If this question were asked 10-20 years ago, the Cowboys would still be in there, of course, but I would say Tom Brady’s New England Patriots would take the other spot.

Maybe they’ll make a comeback with Drake Maye, but for the past decade, there’s been a new kid on the block. Ever since KC drafted Patrick Mahomes, they’ve been one of, if not the best, teams in the NFL.

Throw some Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift love/hate in there, and now your wives and daughters are watching the game too. Boy, has that romance worked out well for the league.

Before the trade deadline, the Cowboys were just about dead in the water. Their defense was looking worse than it has in some time, and partly because of that, the running game wasn’t gaining any traction.

Dak Prescott was still doing his thing and has looked sensational with his new target, George Pickens, who has more receiving yards this season than the top five wideouts for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Prescott is the current betting favorite by a decent margin to win the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award. I don’t care how much you hate ‘Dem Boyz, you have to give this guy his flowers. He is one of the most accurate guys in the league and one of the most productive playing at home.

This one should be a lot of fun. Let’s check the betting odds and make a pick to win this Thanksgiving Day matchup between the Cowboys and Chiefs.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Point Total: 52.5

If you don’t like a side here, I definitely lean toward the under. That’s usually not the best idea in a Cowboys home game, but KC has been one of the best scoring defenses this year, top 5 in fact, giving up just 18.3 points/game.

Both offenses are incredibly explosive, though, so I’ll pass on the point total.

Moneyline Betting Odds

Chiefs: -180

Cowboys: +147

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Dallas Cowboys (+3)

Here’s where it gets interesting. One would think that after the Chiefs thoroughly out-gained the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, they would be taking most of the betting tickets here, as the public loves betting favorites.

On Thanksgiving, though, it’s not the worst idea to blindly bet the favorites. In fact, Turkey Day betting favorites are 40-20 over the past two decades…against the spread! They’re 51-9 straight up.

This line actually opened up at (-3.5) for KC, and that’s when people jumped all over the Cowboys to get that hook. Fans remember the Chiefs of last year and the year before. They had a massive problem covering spreads, but Mahomes would still usually find a way to win.

Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys Betting Analysis

This matchup is unique because both teams are coming off huge games, and they are likely still recovering on Thursday evening.

KC was in a must-win spot against the Colts, and even though they needed an extra 9 minutes to get the win, they dominated Indianapolis.

Dallas was down 21-0 early against Philly and had an incredibly emotional win on a last-second field goal from Brandon Aubrey.

While the Cowboys aren't nearly as disciplined a unit as KC, and they will be hungover to some extent on Thursday, KC did play an extra 9 minutes of football.

Did Dallas really make that comeback happen, or did Philly blow it?

When the Chiefs win in 2025, they usually do so by margin.

Do you want the public dog that’s had a pretty easy schedule as of late, minus Philly, or do you want a top 5, maybe even 3, power-rated team?

At 3.5, I lean toward the under, but at just (-3), take the better team to cover.

Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys Betting Pick

Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

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Pick:	UNDER 60
Start:	November 27, 2025 @ 7:30 PM
Expert:	Doc's Sports

Analysis:

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #312 Under 60 in Navy Midshipmen @ Memphis Tigers (7:30p.m., Thursday, November 27 ESPN) Navy has a lot of play for in this game, as they have a chance to reach the conference title game with a win. They have had another strong season, but I see them struggling to light up the scoreboard in this game. This total is inflated as both teams have strong records hitting the over. Navy still likes to control the football, and Memphis needs to improve on defense if they want to win this game. We will not worry about who covers this spread and instead just focus on the over. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports Holiday Weekend card! We will feature plays on four days in football and now is the time to jump on board with a veteran handicapper of 54 years. Read More Read Less

Thursday Night Football Picks: Kansas City Chiefs vs Dallas Cowboys

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