Thursday Night Football Picks: Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos

by Mike Allen - 11/4/2025

We've got an AFC West Divisional matchup on Thursday Night Football for you as the first-place Denver Broncos host the cellar-dwelling Las Vegas Raiders. That preseason (-140) bet for the Raiders to finish in last place seems like one of the easiest plays I've ever made.

If you watched the Raiders vs Jaguars game on Sunday, you can empathize a bit with Las Vegas fans, though, as they fell victim to an NFL record field goal as well as a defensive lineman batting down the game-winning two-point conversion, at the bottom of his leap, no doubt.

Hopes were high with Super Bowl-winning head coach Pete Carroll at the helm, but things just haven't worked out. I don't know who initiated it, but he got together with the aging Geno Smith, and the team brought him in to win right now.

He doesn't have the depth in the receiving corps like he did in Seattle, and he threw a lot of picks then. Over 8 starts this season, the West Virginia alum has thrown a league-worst 11 interceptions.

Smith did, however, have his best performance of the season on Sunday with 4 touchdown passes. The return of tight end Brock Bowers was huge, as he brought in 3 of them.

The Denver Broncos were fortunate to get the win in Houston in Week 9. The Texans' offense is an entirely different unit with Nico Collins on the field, so I don't discredit the Denver defense for getting beaten early on.

It was Stroud who went down, though, and you have to give at least some credit to the Denver defense for knocking him out of the game, on a clean hit, mind you.

As you might imagine, the betting line for this matchup is wide. Even with so many betting favorites covering lately, we can’t ignore the fact that this is still a divisional game.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Las Vegas Raiders (+9) at Denver Broncos (-9)

We opened at (-9.5), and some sharp money came in and snatched that up. We may have a bit of a sharp/square divide in this game, with 75% of the tickets on the favorite, with the money split down the middle.

Point Total: 42

We opened at 42, and about 60% of the money and tickets have come in on the over. We may have to come back to the point total for our play this week, as this is not an easy play. The Seattle Seahawks to cover (-3) in Washington was a bit more straightforward.

Moneyline Betting Odds

Raiders: -500

Broncos: +360

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos Betting Analysis

We've heard all year about the vaunted Denver defense, which ranks among the top 3-5 in the league at stopping both the run and the pass. The Las Vegas Raiders defense hasn't been that bad, though.

The team could be easily 4-4. Their losses to the Jags and Bears are both 1 point apiece. Looking at their defensive statistics, especially over the past three games, they are a middle-of-the-pack team, not the bottom.

The Jags were able to wear them down with the run game, but the Raiders' offense, being able to pass the ball effectively, but not run it, played into that.

Denver can do the same thing, and their pass rush is 100% the best in the NFL. You know if you take the Raiders with the points, Nik Bonitto and the boys are going to be all over Smith. Only 5 QBs have taken more sacks than him.

They will probably be without their star cornerback, Patrick Surtain II, on the short week as he heals a strained pec, but I still would have expected more than just 4 interceptions in 8 games from this defense.

I guess they're just getting to the quarterback too fast. Since they're playing a quarterback who makes many errant throws, they should give him more time.

Jokes aside, we need to either fade the public/play the divisional underdog or bet the better/home team on a short week.

One team ranks 1st in 3rd down conversions and the other 30th. I think you know who is who. With all that said, this is too many points for a divisional game. The Raiders are putting some midseason magic together. It's not much, but I think it will be enough to stay within single digits.

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos Betting Pick

Pick: Las Vegas Raiders (+9)

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Start:	November 4, 2025 @ 8:05 PM
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Thursday Night Football Picks: Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos

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