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2026 Best Super Bowl Teaser Bets: Picks and Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 1/29/2026

Super Bowl teaser bets Drake Maye New England Patriots

Super Bowl LX is rapidly approaching, with the Seahawks and Patriots set to face off in a rematch of the 2015 Super Bowl. The spread has been set at 4.5 points in favor of Seattle, while the total is at 45.5 points, the lowest Super Bowl over/under of the last decade. 

On the one hand, the -4.5 point spread for the Seahawks is a tempting wager. Seattle is boasting the league’s best defense, while Sam Darnold has silenced critics with another stellar season. The Seahawks smashed the 49ers in the divisional round and beat the Rams by exactly four points in the NFC Championship. They have allowed only 7.3 PPG in their last six games against teams other than Los Angeles, and another defensive masterclass would allow them to cover this spread with ease. 

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On the other hand, New England has been playing excellent defense themselves, allowing just 25 points in their three playoff wins to reach the Super Bowl. Subpar offenses certainly played a role, but the Patriots have been consistent on defense this season, and they have the offensive edge over Seattle. Second-year quarterback Drake Maye has been excellent, leading the league in completion percentage and quarterback rating. He is an MVP candidate and would love nothing more than to cap off a stellar sophomore season with a Super Bowl win. 

Regarding the total, this may be the lowest Super Bowl total of the last decade, but it’s still bang on with the league average of 46.38 PPG this year. These are two teams that are well-built on both sides of the ball, relying on complementary football to reach this stage of the season. The offenses will steal the spotlight, but expecting either side to run up the score is a tall task against these defenses. 

If you are not confident in playing the straight spreads and totals, you can implement a teaser for the Super Bowl. A teaser is when you modify the lines in your favor at the cost of reduced odds. Usually, you will then parlay multiple games that have all been ‘teased’ in your favor into a single bet to create a solid payout for very plausible events. Teasers are commonly 4 points, 6 points, or 7 points in your favor, which increases the likelihood that your pick will be correct. In the NFL, there are ‘key numbers’ that you generally want to cross when betting a teaser. A 3-point and 7-point margin of victory are very common in the NFL, which means changing a bet from +2.5 to +3.5 has much more value than going from +3.5 to +4.5. In the last 25 years, 15% of games finish with a 3-point win, while another 10% finish by exactly seven points. The same logic applies to totals, as you can bump or reduce the total by four, six, or seven points in your favor. Key numbers are less important for totals, but there are still meaningful differences to consider. 3.9% of games finish with exactly 44 points, while only 2.5% finish with 45 points. 

Since we don’t have any other games to tease the Super Bowl with, we will tease both the spread and total by 6 points to get a small parlay worth -110 odds. The spread is at -4.5 in favor of the Seahawks, which means we can get New England at +10.5 or the Seahawks at -1.5. I already favor New England on the standard spread, and the fact that a 6-point teaser gets us across 6,7, and 10 points, all of which are key numbers, makes the Patriots an easy pick. Their defense will be able to match Seattle’s, and I have much more confidence in Drake Maye than Sam Darnold. New England knows how to grind out close games, and as long as they stay within 10 points, this leg of the teaser is an easy winner. The Patriots haven’t lost by more than 10 points since December 2024, and I don’t expect them to completely fall apart in the Super Bowl. Unless Seattle wins the turnover margin by three or more, the Patriots will be able to keep this one close and cover the +10.5 teased spread. 

For the total points, we can take either over 39.5 points or under 51.5 points. While it is always daunting to fade two offenses capable of running up the score, taking under 51.5 is the way to go. Neither of these teams has seen a game go over 51 points yet in the playoffs, as their strong defenses consistently prevail. In fact, these two teams have only allowed a combined 59 points in the postseason, making it very unlikely that this sky-high line will be crossed in the biggest game of the season. Strong defensive play is why these two are where they are, and that trend will persist at Super Bowl LX. 

Rather than taking -110 odds on the spread or total, we can get -110 odds by parlaying Patriots +10.5 and under 51.5 points. Both of these are very likely outcomes and will give us a clear game script to root for on Sunday. It’s hard to imagine this one losing, as this is one of the best picks you can make for Super Bowl LX. 

Super Bowl LX Teaser Pick: New England Patriots (+10.5) and Under 51.5 Points -110 

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