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2026 Illinois Fighting Illini Basketball Predictions and Odds to Win the National Championship

by Ryan Cobbett - 10/26/2026

Illinois Fighting Illini basketball predictions Tomislav Ivisic

After an incredible season, the Illinois Fightin Illini returned to the Final Four for the first time in over 20 years. Now that they have returned to the Final Four, their sights are turned to new heights. Now they want a National Championship. One of the biggest storylines following the Illini this season is filling the hole in the roster left by Keaton Wagler. Wagler was a centerpiece to last year’s team. Illinois also has to replace Kylan Boswell and Ben Humrichous. The Illini do benefit from the return of the Ivisic twins and some stout transfers that should put this roster near the top of the nation. Illinois has improved to a conference powerhouse, and after a deep run in March, they are looking to become a national threat this year. Brad Underwood has a lot of experience leading the bench, now is the time to deliver a national championship to the program.

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Illinois Fighting Illini Basketball Summary of Last Season

The Fighting Illini had one of the best seasons in program history last season. While they went into the season as a strong team, they left as a dark horse that almost had a Cinderella story. A 12-game winning streak from the end of December to early February all but cemented the Illini as a tournament team. They finished the regular season with a 24-7 record and a 15-5 B10 record. They picked up resume building wins against #11 Texas Tech, #13 Tennessee, #19 Iowa, #4 Purdue, and #5 Nebraska. Four of their seven regular season losses were one possession games. They did hit a speed bump down the stretch, losing three of their final four games including the quarterfinal loss in the B10 tournament where they lost 91-88 in overtime to Wisconsin. Illinois earned a No. 3 Seed despite the early exit in the conference tournament. They dominated their first two games against Pennsylvania and VCU, and then the Illini put together a spectacular upset win over the Houston Cougars in the Sweet 16. The Illini then took down Iowa in the Elite Eight before their season ultimately ended in the Final Four at the hands of UConn.

Illinois had the second-best scoring offense in the Big 10 last season as they averaged 83.2 PPG. They shot just over 46% as a team and 34.5% from beyond the arc. The Illini were the second-best rebounding team in the conference as they averaged a +10.2-RPG differential. Defensively, they were solid. They allowed just 68.8 PPG, which was the fifth best mark in the conference. They held opponents to just 40.6% shooting and they eliminated the deep ball, holding opponents to just 31.3% from deep.  Wagler led the team with 17.9 PPG and 4.2 APG, while also adding 5.1 RPG and he shot just under 40% from deep He was complimented by Andrej Stojakovic (13.5 PPG), David Mirkovic (13.3 PPG), Boswell (12.3 PPG), and Tomislav Ivisic (10.4 PPG) who all averaged double-digit PPG. Mirkovic led the team with eight RPG, and all of the top five scorers averaged 75% or better from the free throw line.  

2026 Illinois Fighting Illini Basketball Key Additions/Losses

Wagler has moved on to the NBA after being the fifth overall pick by the Los Angeles Clippers. Boswell and Humrichous moved on to the NBA and professional ball as well. All three of those players averaged at least 22 MPG and Wagler and Boswell were top four on the team in points and assists. Guards Brandon Lee and Mihailo Petrovic also transferred out of the program. Lee departs for James Madison after averaging 1.7 PPG in 4.1 MPG. Petrovic left for Seton Hall after averaging 1.6 PPG in 5.7 MPG. Forward Ty Rodgers transferred to Boise State.

The Illini retooled the roster by adding elite scoring potential. They added Stefan Vaaks who averaged 15.8 PPG with Providence last season. He also shot 35% from deep and 83.9% from the line. Vaaks joined a group of newcomers that also includes five-star prospect Quentin Coleman (14th nationally), as well as four-stars (SG) Lucas Morillo and (PF) Zavier Zens, and three-stars (SG) Lincoln Williams, (G) Ethan Brown, and (PF) Landon Davis.

2026 Illinois Fighting Illini Basketball Schedule Breakdown

Home- #21 USC, #22 UCLA, Iowa

Away- #19 Texas Tech, #2 Duke, #16 Michigan, Washington

Neutral- #4 UConn, Missouri, North Carolina, #6 Michigan State

2026 Illinois Fighting Illini Basketball X-Factors/Big Questions

Can Illinois finally win a National Championship?

They will be a matchup nightmare due to their roster size. In addition to the size, the roster has a nice balance of star potential and postseason experience. Underwood brought in a strong recruiting class as well as another offensive weapon. Expect this team to keep rolling from the get go and be one of the strongest programs in the country.

Can Illinois replace Keaton Wagler production?

Vaaks fits nicely next to Stojakovic and Mirkovic, but one of these guys needs to jump out and be the leader and focal point of the offense. Wagler was able to elevate the offense last season with his stardom and the Illini need of their players to become a breakout star this season. Mirkovic was third on the team in scoring and could step up without Wagler as the focal point. Stojakovic showed flashes of brilliance while shooting over 55% during the Illini’s deep tournament run, and he is most likely the breakout guy who can average 15-20 PPG for this Illinois team. Coleman also can immediately hit the ground running and be one of the best scorers on this team too.

2026 Illinois Fighting Illini Basketball Notable Odds:

National Championship: +1400

Big 10 Champion: +144

AP Top 25: 3rd

Andy Katz’s Power 44: 3rd

Wooden Winner- David Mirkovic: +2200

2026 Illinois Fighting Illini Basketball Predictions:

The size is incredible. The value (+1400) is incredible. The potential of Mirkovic, Stojakovic, Vaaks, and Coleman is incredible. Having the Ivisic twins is incredible. Illinois is just an incredible pick for futures. While they may lack a legitimate Wooden Award Winner, they have a scoring committee which is often times more dangerous than one proven star. They may not come into this season with as much hype as Florida or Duke, but there is a lot to like for this Illinois team. Look for them to control the conference, and be a legit national title contender.

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