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2026 Michigan State Spartans Basketball Predictions and Odds to Win the National Championship

by Ryan Cobbett - 10/28/2026

Michigan State Spartans basketball predictions Jeremy Fears Jr

The Michigan State Spartans have remained a Blue Blood for decades. However, they have failed to compete for any titles in many years. The Spartans were one of the toughest teams in the country, they won 27 games, finished second in the Big 10, but they were eliminated in the Sweet 16 by the UConn Huskies. Tom Izzo has done well filling the holes that were left from last year’s departures, both through a strong recruiting class and transfer portal class, but he has to get this team to come together early and pick up some resume building wins. The Spartans return this year’s Wooden Award favorite in Jeremy Fears Jr, and it is time for them to end their seven-year Final Four drought.

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Michigan State Summary of Last Season

The Spartans were one of the toughest teams to play last season. They opened the season by winning eight games in a row, including wins over #14 Arkansas, #12 Kentucky, #16 North Carolina, and Iowa. No. 4 Duke ended their winning streak, and the Spartans lost to two more ranked teams in #13 Nebraska and #3 Michigan (twice). They also lost to Minnesota and Wisconsin. Michigan State finished the regular season 25-6 and 15-6 in the Big 10. Unfortunately, their Big 10 Tournament stay was short lived as they lost to UCLA in the tournament quarterfinals. They earned a No. 3 Seed in the tournament and cruised through the first two rounds beating North Dakota State by 25 and Louisville. Unfortunately, their season ended at the hands of the UConn Huskies in the Sweet 16, losing 67-63.

The Spartans ranked sixth in the Big 10 in PPG, averaging 78.8 PPG. They shot 47.2% as a team, and 36.3% from deep. Their +11.3-RPG differential was the best mark in the conference, and they finished second in the conference with a +5.1-APG differential. Jeremy Fears Jr. led the team in scoring with 15.2 PPG and 9.4 APG. He also averaged 1.3 SPG and shot 88.5% from the free throw line. Jaxon Kohler finished with 12.5 PPG. and he led the team with 8.9 RPG. Coen Carr was right on Kohler’s heels with 12 PPG, and he recorded 5.4 RPG while shooting 51.8% from the floor. Carson Cooper was the final Spartans players to average double-digit PPG after finishing the season with 11.1 PPG. Cooper finished with 7.1 RPG and shot 58.4% from the floor and 40% from deep.

2026 Michigan State Key Additions/Losses

Michigan State lost Kohler in the transfer portal as he left for BYU. He was joined by Divine Ugochukwu to be the only Spartans players who departed via the transfer portal. Ugochukwu transferred to LSU after averaging 5.1 PPG in 16.1 MPG. Carson Cooper left for the NBA which leaves a big hole on the roster. Trey Fort ran out of eligibility after averaging 4.2 PPG in 10.2 MPG for the Spartans last season. Losing Kohler hurt, but bringing back Fears is big.

After only losing three significant players from last year’s roster, the Spartans brought in a class of five newcomers. They signed four four-star prospects out of high school. That list is headlined by shooting guard Jasiah Jervis who is the 37th ranked prospect nationally. He is joined by center Ethan Taylor (46th), point guard Carlos Medlock Jr. (52nd), and power forward Julius Avent (95th). The Spartans also added center Anton Bonke in the transfer portal. He is transferring in from Charlotte after averaging 10.6 PPG and 8.3 RPG for the 49ers last season. The 7’2” center will fill in for the departed Cooper.

2026 Michigan State Schedule Breakdown

Home- #16 Michigan

Away- #8 Tennessee, #22 UCLA, #21 USC, #16 Michigan, Iowa

Neutral- #2 Duke, #12 Arkansas, #15 Gonzaga, #3 Illinois

2026 Michigan State X-Factors/Big Questions

Do the Spartans have enough firepower to compete?

The Spartans lost their second and fourth best scorers. Carr is going to have to step it up this season as he should expect an increase in volume as the offense shifts its focus to him and Fears. Bonke and Taylor are both 7’2” which should give the Spartans some valuable size for Fears to feed, but both are going to see a huge increase in opponent toughness as they come from high school and the AAC straight to the Big 10. Jervis shot 36% from deep in high school and Kur Teng shot over 38% last year. If these two can open things up for the big boys down low, Michigan State should remain as one of the best teams in the country. Unfortunately, these remain unknowns until this team hits the court.

2026 Michigan State Notable Odds:

National Championship: +1800

Big 10 Champion: +465

AP Top 25: 6th

Andy Katz’s Power 44: 3rd  

Wooden Winner- Jeremy Fears Jr.: +850

2026 Michigan State Predictions:

What the Spartans did to replace their losses is underwhelming. Izzo needs to bring a title to East Lansing. And while they may have the best player in the country in Fears, they did not do enough to buy in to construct a winning roster around him. One would think Michigan State would have been a little more aggressive in the portal trying to add proven talent around Fears. However, it is hard to deny that the size of this roster is not something most teams can tout, though Florida and Illinois do. Michigan State has to answer some depth questions before they can be considered a contender. It is best to avoid the Spartans until we see this team on the court.

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