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2026 Texas Longhorns Basketball Predictions and Odds to Win the National Championship

by Ryan Cobbett - 10/29/2026

Texas Longhorns basketball predictions Isaiah Johnson

Sean Miller gave the Texas Longhorns program what it desperately needed: some momentum heading into the offseason. In one year, he has transformed this program into a consistent winning team. While conference play was indeed inconsistent, they made it all the way to the Sweet 16 after some big wins against Gonzaga and BYU. The most impressive thing for Miller, though, wasn’t reaching the Sweet 16 in his debut season, it is the motivation to continue to improve his roster into one that now expects to reach at least the Sweet 16. They put together one of the strongest recruiting classes this offseason, bringing in 11 newcomers. The Longhorns have endured a Final Four drought that has lasted more than 20 years, but now they finally have a roster that is strong enough that can not only end that drought but also compete for a national championship.

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Texas Longhorns Basketball Summary of Last Season

Last season was one of the best basketball seasons for the Longhorns in recent memory, and it happened with an 18-13 regular season record. The Longhorns took a 9-4 record into conference play, with two of those losses coming at the hands of Duke and UConn. They then struggled during the first six games of conference play, going 2-4, losing to two unraked teams at home. Overall, they finished conference play with a 9-9 record, though they managed to pick up important wins against #13 Alabama, #10 Vanderbilt, and #21 Georgia. After losing four of their five final regular season games, Texas was set to face Ole Miss to open their SEC Tournament play. Unfortunately, the Longhorns would go on to lose to the Rebels. Somehow, the Longhorns snuck into the tournament, but they didn’t look back. Texas snuck past NC State in the First Four, then took down No. 6 Seed BYU and then No. 3 Seed Gonzaga. Their luck did run out after No. 2 Seed Purdue took them down 79-77 in the Sweet 16.

Dailyn Swain was one of the best players in the country last season. He led the Longhorns with 17.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG, and 3.6 APG. He also recorded 1.6 SPG and shot 54.2% from the floor. Matas Vokietaitis averaged 15.6 PPG and 7.1 RPG, while shooting a team best 61.9% from the floor. Tramon Mark averaged 14 PPG, and Jordan Pope averaged 13.1 PPG. Pope was joined by Camden Heide as the best three-point options on the team. As a team, Texas ranked ninth in the SEC in scoring, averaging 82.8 PPG. They were also a solid rebounding team, finishing the season with a +6.9-RPG differential. The Longhorns allowed 76.2 PPG, though they did allow opponents to shoot just under 45% as a team.

2026 Texas Longhorns Basketball Key Additions/Losses

Swain was drafted by the Chicago Bulls with the 15th overall selection in last year’s NBA Draft. Mark ran out of eligibility, and the depth on last year’s team was depleted. Joining Swain and Mark, as departing pieces, are Pope who transferred to Texas A&M, Heide who transferred to South Carolina, Chendall Weaver who transferred to Houston, Simeon Wilcher who transferred to Seton Hall, and Nic Codie who transferred to SMU. Seven of the eight players who averaged 15.8 MPG or more are gone.

Vokietaitis, the lone returning contributor, did see a huge boost in talent as the coaching staff did a great job filling the holes of the departed players. Texas did sign two five-star players in PF Marcus Spears Jr, who is the eighth ranked player in the nation, as well as Austin Goosby who ranked 19th. The Longhorns also brought in a talented transfer class. Mikey Lewis joins the Longhorns after averaging 13.9 PPG for Saint Mary’s last season. Lewis is joined by Elyjah Freeman (9.2 PPG and 5.2 RPG) who comes in from Auburn, Amari Evans (4.1 PPG) from Tennessee, David Punch (14.1 PPG and 6.8 RPG) from TCU, and Isaiah Johnson (16.9 PPG and 37.8% 3P%) who transfers in from Colorado.

2026 Texas Longhorns Basketball Schedule Breakdown

Home- Memphis, #1 Florida, #12 Arkansas, #23 Kentucky, #20 Alabama, #8 Tennessee

Away- #11 Louisville, #1 Florida, #24 Vanderbilt

Neutral- Baylor, Georgetown, #14 Miami

2026 Texas Longhorns Basketball X-Factors/Big Questions

How fast can the team gel?

With all the departing talent, the Longhorns will not look like the Sweet 16 squad we saw a year ago. This team has 11 newcomers between the five transfers and the six-player recruiting class. With that, there is certainly going to be some growing pains as these players figure out their role on this team. Players like Punch, Lewis, Johnson, and Vokietaitis are all very talented, but they have to learn to player together in order to maximize these incredible offseason moves. The SEC will once again be tough, but the media favors this new and improved Texas roster on paper, but they have to go out there and play together.

2026 Texas Longhorns Basketball Notable Odds:

National Championship: +1900

SEC Champion: +850

AP Top 25: 7th

Andy Katz’s Power 44: 8th   

Wooden Winner- Isaiah Johnson: +3500

Wooden Winner- Matas Vokietaitis: +4500

2026 Texas Longhorns Basketball Predictions:

I like the Longhorns roster heading into this season. If the players can come together and get the growing pains out of the way, I think this Longhorns team will be quite successful. They have a mix of veterans and young and exciting talents. The good news for this newly put together squad, the nonconference schedule is extremely kind to them to start the year. They have plenty of tune-up games in order to get ready for some tougher nonconference opponents in December and SEC play after that. Texas has a good chance of competing in the SEC, but they are a wait and see kind of team before going all in on some future bets.

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