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2026 Virginia Cavaliers Basketball Predictions and Odds to Win the National Championship

by Ryan Cobbett - 10/30/2026

Virginia Cavaliers basketball predictions Thijs De Ridder

The Virginia Cavaliers have returned to elite status in just one year under Ryan Odom. Odom led this Cavaliers team to 30 wins last season after posting just 15 the season before, and they earned a No. 3 seed in the tournament. While they were eliminated early at the hands of Tennessee, Odom brought the program back to life. One of the biggest advantages for the Cavaliers heading into the new campaign is the amount of experience featured on the roster. They have an equal balance of strong defense, lethal perimeter play, and potential star power. Virginia did face some significant departures, but Odom was active in the transfer portal and has now put together a roster that could be even better than last year’s 30-win team. Now the goal changes from reaching the tournament, to winning it all.

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Virginia Cavaliers Summary of Last Season

The 2026 Virginia Cavaliers faced a rather disappointing end to their season. They started the regular season winning 11 of their first 12 games. Then, after losing their conference play opener to Virginia Tech, they proceeded to finish with a 15-3 conference record, losing to just Duke and Miami in addition to Virginia Tech. The Cavaliers finished with a 27-4 record before heading into the conference tournament. They took down North Carolina State and Miami, but they ultimately fell just short of the conference trophy losing to Duke by four in the ACC Championship game. They were good enough to secure a No. 3 Seed heading into March. They took down Wright State in the opening round but then were eliminated in the Round of 32 by No. 6 Seed Tennessee.

Virginia finished the season averaging 80.4 PPG, which ranked sixth in the conference. They shot 46.2% as a team and over 36% from deep. They led the conference in offensive rebounds and blocks. Virginia’s +11.6-PPG differential was the third highest mark in the ACC behind just Duke and Louisville. Defensively, they ranked third in the conference as they held opponents to just 68.8 PPG and just 39.8% shooting as a team. Thijs De Ridder led the team with 15.6 PPG and with 6.2 RPG, though he shot over 50% from the floor and nearly 36% from deep. Malik Thomas finished with 12.4 PPG, and he shot over 35% from deep. Sam Lewis was the only other Virginia player to record double-digit points, adding 10.6 PPG.

Virginia Cavaliers Key Additions/Losses

The Cavaliers were able to retain two of their top three scorers, but Thomas has run out of eligibility and wont be returning this season. Jacari White, who averaged 9.4 PPG and shot over 43% from beyond the arc, also ran out of eligibility. Ugonna Onyenso was drafted in the second round of the NBA Draft by the Detroit Pistons. Dallin Hall transferred to Utah State and Devin Tillis ran out of eligibility.

While that is a bit of a lengthy list, the Cavaliers retained some important pieces and they reloaded this offseason. They brought in four-star center Favour Ibe who stands 7’1” and is the 161st ranked prospect nationally. Virginia also added four transfers. Jan Vide is transferring in after two seasons with Loyola Marymount. Vide averaged 12.1 PPG and four APG last season. Kalu Anya is coming in from Saint Louis where he averaged 6.5 PPG and 7.5 RPG. Christian Harmon transfers in after one season with Arkansas State where he averaged 12.8 PPG, and Jurian Dixon is coming in from UC Irvine where he averaged 15.9 PPG.

2026 Virginia Cavaliers Schedule Breakdown

Home- #23 Kentucky, Virginia Tech, #2 Duke, #11 Louisville

Away- #14 Miami, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, #2 Duke

Neutral- #12 Arkansas, Marquette, Xavier, #4 UConn

2026 Virginia Cavaliers X-Factors/Big Questions

Can Virginia replace the lost production?

Yes. This Virginia team might end up better than last year’s team. De Ridder will be one of the best players in the conference, and maybe even the whole country. They already had solid returning pieces like Johann Grunloh and Chance Mallory. Vide and Anya should be added depth pieces, while Harmon and Dixon add even more firepower to the lineup, which should replace the hole left by Thomas.

2026 Virginia Cavaliers Notable Odds:

National Championship: +3500

ACC Champion: +590

AP Top 25: 9th 

Andy Katz’s Power 44: 13th

2026 Virginia Cavaliers Predictions:

Virginia has a serious chance to win this conference, and those +590 odds have great value. De Ridder was named ACC Player of the Year, and the roster reloaded. They do have a tougher schedule than last season, but that only speaks about how quickly this team will be battle tested and really grow. I think by March that the Cavaliers may quietly be one of the most dangerous teams in the country. Expect the Cavaliers to make the ACC interesting, and to go deep in this year’s March Madness tournament.

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