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2026 Memphis Grizzlies Predictions with Best Bets and Odds to Win NBA Championship

by Spencer Toth - 10/8/2026

Memphis Grizzlies predictions Cameron Boozer

The Memphis Grizzlies had a disastrous 25-57 season last year, their worst finish since 2009. After three straight years without a playoff win, the front office decided it was time to move on from Ja Morant and finally commit to a rebuild. The Grizzlies’ primary focus this year will be developing their young stars and staying out of the relegation zone, but is there enough talent on this roster to make a surprising playoff push? Let’s dive in. 

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Memphis Grizzlies Offseason Recap

The Memphis Grizzlies had a busy offseason as they tried to assemble a respectable squad. Ja Morant was finally shown the door after seven years with the Grizzlies plagued by injuries and off-court issues. The 27-year-old only played 79 games across the last three seasons, and even when he was on the court, he was far less effective than earlier in his career. Losing the face of the franchise is always tough for the fans, but a sizable haul coming back to Memphis will help ease the pain. The Grizzlies acquired Jerami Grant and Kris Murray from the Trail Blazers, with Grant being the best asset coming back. Grant is a strong defender who can also stretch the floor on offense, and has averaged at least 14 PPG across his last six seasons, with his career high 21.0 PPG coming back in 2023-24. His volume decreased over the last few years, but he is as efficient as ever and rarely turns the ball over for someone heavily involved in the offense.  

Memphis also struck gold in the NBA Draft lottery, as they shot up to third overall which allowed them to take Cameron Boozer. Boozer became the fifth freshman ever to win AP National Player of the Year, with 22.5 PPG, 10.2 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 1.4 steals, all while shooting 55.6% from the floor and 39.1% from behind the arc. Boozer is already a complete offensive player at only 19 years old, and has all the makings to be the next great offensive big man. He is more of a smart and positionally sound defender rather than a dominant shot blocker, but his ability to score from anywhere on the floor, aggressively rebound in the paint, and make high IQ plays with the ball in his hands more than makes up for that. Unlike other rookies, Boozer already has the frame and size to make an instant impact on Memphis. 

The Grizzlies also retooled their bench to bring in veteran help for the young players. Isaiah Stewart is an underrated signing from Detroit, as his defensive impact will help anchor the bench minutes. Stewart brings a certain energy to a team that is hard to see on the box score, and is the perfect spark plug for this developing team. Quinten Post will also slot in as a rotational big man, turning the Grizzlies into a very deep team at the four and five positions. 

2026 Memphis Grizzlies Season Expectations

The expectations have never been lower in Memphis as the Grizzlies buckle up for a long season that will almost certainly end in disappointment. Staying out of the dreaded relegation zone will be the primary target for this team, but the new year brings in a fresh sense of optimism, even for a rebuilding roster. 

One important thing to remember when looking at the Grizzlies 25-57 record last year is that they missed an NBA-record 564 man-games due to injury, with a remarkable 48 different starting lineups. Cam Spencer led the team with 72 games played, which is almost an unbelievable stat, and only three players played more than 55 games last season. The fact that the Grizzlies finished outside the bottom-five shows how much talent they have hiding on this roster. 

Spencer shot 44.9% from three last season, the third-best in the league, while Ty Jerome was excellent in leading the team with 19.7 PPG while tacking on 5.7 assists. Meanwhile, Zach Edey will only get better as he develops into a legitimate threat at center. If that trio can spend more time healthy together while Boozer starts his NBA career off on the right foot, the Grizzlies may not only avoid the relegation zone, but actually make a late-season push for a play-in tournament position. They weren’t able to create a real defensive identity with the ever-changing lineups, but if the Grizzlies get a bit healthier this year, their 28.5 win total could be surpassed with a handful of games still to play. 

2026 Memphis Grizzlies Schedule Breakdown

If the Grizzlies want to seriously consider making a push for the playoffs, they need to get off to a hot start. Memphis takes on the Jazz and Kings twice, and the Trail Blazers, Warriors, and Pelicans once in the first seven games of the season. There is a real world where the Grizzlies start the year 4-3, 5-2, or even 6-1, as all seven of those teams are expected to at the very best, qualify for the play-in tournament. Their schedule picks up after that with some tough matchups, but they never go through any really rough stretches. Memphis is one of four NBA teams to have no road trips of five or more games, but they still have a five-game homestand early in the year and an eight-game homestand in early February. 

2026 Memphis Grizzlies Odds

The Grizzlies have a win total of 28.5 games this season, which has them tied with the Pelicans for the second-lowest total in the Western Conference. They are seen as a real longshot to qualify for the playoffs at +600, and even making the play-in tournament might be out of reach at +325… or so the odds think. The top of the West is stacked, but that isn’t the Grizzlies' competition. Memphis is no worse than teams like the Jazz, Suns, Warriors, or Clippers, yet they have significantly worse odds than that quartet. 

In the NBA Cup, the Grizzlies have an interesting group with the Thunder, Timberwolves, Pelicans, and Clippers. Memphis is expected to finish last with +2800 odds to win the group, but it is not like it is especially strong outside of the Thunder. Memphis hosts OKC to open up the NBA Cup, which maybe gives them a sliver of a chance, but they still have sky-high +40000 odds to win the NBA Cup. 

2026 Memphis Grizzlies Season Predictions and Best Bets

Will we be betting on the Grizzlies to win the NBA championship? No, that is too much to ask. However, their 28.5 win total is straight up disrespectful, and taking Grizzlies overs is one of my most confident reads for any of the 30 NBA teams heading into the new season. Memphis didn’t win many games last year, but a long list of injuries that persisted throughout the season can take most of the blame. The Grizzlies actually have talent on this roster, and they have now drafted an NBA-ready lottery pick, got rid of their biggest distraction in Ja Morant, and acquired a pair of solid players in their prime with Stewart and Grant. If the rest of their roster can play as they did last year during the small sample size of availability, the Grizzlies will easily surpass this total. 

For the second bet, and potentially my top pick of this series of articles, we are taking the Memphis Grizzlies to qualify for the play-in tournament at +325 odds. I always like hunting for plus money with season-long bets, as we need to tie up less of our bankroll for months on end to still secure a sizable profit. Let’s assume the Thunder, Spurs, Nuggets, Rockets, Timberwolves, and Lakers take the top six playoff spots that avoid the play-in. That leaves the Trail Blazers, Warriors, Jazz, Suns, Mavericks, and Pelicans competing with the Grizzlies for four play-in tournament spots, assuming the Clippers and Kings are out of the running. Maybe the Trail Blazers have an edge, but the Grizzlies are just as good as the Warriors, Jazz, and anyone else on that list, yet have significantly lower odds. They don’t need to even go .500 to make the play-in, as I expect a 36 win campaign to be enough with a poor middle of the Western Conference. 

Finally, if we are betting on an underdog like the Grizzlies, we need to look for a big payout. While their playoff odds at +600 are nice, I prefer to go for 40+ regular season wins at +850 odds. It is more likely that the Grizzlies finish 40-42 or slightly better but still miss the playoffs than it is for them to finish with fewer than 40 wins and sneak in via the play-in tournament. We are getting a better price on the alternate win total, and we don’t have to put down much to secure a potentially large payout. If you are really feeling crazy, you can go for the +2900 NBA Cup group winner odds. I like the Grizzlies schedule and one upset against the Thunder, where the Grizzlies will likely be around +700 at home, would flip the group on its head. 

Pick: Memphis Grizzlies Over 28.5 Wins -110

Top Pick: Memphis Grizzlies to Qualify for the Play-In Tournament +325

Pick: Memphis Grizzlies 40+ Regular Season Wins +850

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