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2020 First Touchdown Scored Super Bowl Props Odds and Expert Betting Predictions


by Trevor Whenham - 1/22/2020

Kansas City Chiefs running back Damien Williams

One of the more popular prop bets at this time of year is the Super Bowl first touchdown prop. Both of these teams know how to score, and they are both dialed in right now, so we should see some scoring. And it can be pretty profitable to figure out who will do that scoring. This is a tougher challenge here than it might seem, though. Both teams are pretty democratic offensively, spreading around the glory. And both offensive coordinators don't get stuck in any ruts. Spoiler alert - it will be easier to find value in other prop bets than it is for this one.

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Raheem Mostert, San Francisco (+500): This is recency bias in action. Mostert is coming off a record setting performance last week with four touchdowns, so he seems like a sound pick if you look at a small sample size. But he wasn't even the primary running back to start that game - Tevin Coleman was until he hurt his shoulder. And Mostert had only eight touchdowns in seven games in the regular season. Those scores were heavily tilted towards the back end of the season, but he still hasn't been a touchdown factory. And a Kyle Shanahan team really doesn't like being predictable, so it's hard to know if they will rely so heavily on the ground game because it worked so well last time. He's not going to sneak up on the Chiefs like he did the Packers, and Kansas City took all of the wind out of the sails of Derrick Henry, the last rushing machine they faced. Mostert isn't a terrible choice here, but he isn't an attractive one at all at this price.

 

Damien Williams, Kansas City (+600): The opponent of the Chiefs scored the first four scores in their first playoff game and the first two in their second game. It might not be the best bet to assume that any Kansas City player will score the first touchdown. Williams has three touchdowns in the playoffs and five in his last three games, so he is in good form. But he scored only eight times all year, and the Chiefs are not a high-volume rushing team - he led the team this year with just 498 yards on the ground. Like Mostert, it is very possible that he could score, but not likely enough to make this bet attractive.

 

Travis Kelce, KC (+900): Kelce scored three touchdowns against the Texans, and he was completely unstoppable. But he scored in only five regular season games, so he isn't always such a threat - even though he was the leading receiver for the team. The Chiefs have too many receiving threats to trust any one of them at a price like this.

 

Tyreek Hill, KC (+900): The issue for Hill is the same as it is for Kelce - they have five or six receivers who Mahomes is very comfortable with, so trusting any of them to be the first target at this kind of price isn't attractive. And, like Kelce, Hill scored in only five regular season games, so he isn't a guaranteed target.

 

George Kittle, SF (+1000): Kittle is the leading receiver for the 49ers, but he also scored only five times in the regular season. He has not scored in the postseason, though, and the team did not exactly lean heavily on the passing game to get to this point. Stop me if I sound like a broken record, but while he is a possibility, he isn't enough of one to justify this price.

 

Tevin Coleman, SF (+1600): Coleman dislocated his shoulder against the Packers, so we can't at all be sure that he will be ready for the Super Bowl. And while he scored twice in the Minnesota playoff game, he scored in only four regular season games - and didn't score in the last five. Plus, Mostert is the hotter hand. Therefore, even if Coleman is ready, he likely won't be the first choice. There is not much to like in this choice.

 

Patrick Mahomes, KC (+2000): Mahomes has scored three times in his last seven games and had a world class rushing touchdown last time out. He's dangerous and dialed in, and at this price he's easier to like than anyone who came before him on this list.

 

Kansas City D/ST (+2500): Garoppolo threw 13 interceptions in the regular season and one more in the playoffs, so he could certainly throw a pick six. There are guys who protect the ball better than him for sure. But only one guy, safety Juan Thornhill, has returned an interception for a TD this year, and he's on the injured reserve. The Chiefs did score twice on fumble recoveries, though, and once more on a kickoff return, so the special teams are a bit more productive.

 

Jimmy Garoppolo, SF (+3300): Garoppolo scored just once on the ground this year, and that was back on October 13. I have never played a game of organized football in my life, and I'm far too old to start, but he outrushed me by only 61 yards this year. He's not exactly fleet of foot, so this price doesn't scream that it's investment-grade.

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