2023 Golden State Warriors Predictions with Futures Odds and Expert NBA Picks
The Golden State Warriors dynasty is searching for one final ring before the core members of the squad depart or retire. And they will be confident that, despite their aging group of players, they can still compete with the league’s next generation. A second-round loss to LeBron James and the Lakers stopped Steph Curry and co. from collecting their 5th ring last season. Do the Splash Brothers still have what it takes, and will the addition of 38-year-old Chris Paul prove to be an upgrade over Jordan Poole?
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Golden State Warriors Offseason Recap
The Warriors were unusually active in the offseason, shipping out Jordan Poole and other pieces in exchange for Chris Paul. Poole played on the Warriors for all 4 seasons of his career, posting the best season last year, averaging 20.4 PPG and 4.5 Assists, both of which were career highs. It was clear he was learning from Curry, as his tendency to pull up from deep, and make timely, yet flashy shots from beyond the arc, often erupted the home crowd. Considering Poole is only 24; 14 years younger than Chris Paul, it is very clear the Warriors want to give their core group another shot at a championship.
Paul is one of the most talented players to never win a ring. Paul’s 11,501 career assists rank 3rd all time, and he led the league in assists in 5 separate seasons. The distribution Paul brings with him is a deadly combination with Curry and Klay Thompson, as if he can keep defenses honest with his shooting, the Warriors will have a very effective offense. He’s very active on defense, averaging 2.1 steals per game throughout his career, but his age will be a concern. He’s logged 34.4 minutes per game throughout his 18-year career, and it will eventually catch back up to him.
The Warriors also had Green decline his $27.89 million dollar player option, before signing a 4-year, $100 million dollar extension. Now that Paul will be at point guard, Green will see his role dramatically shift to a more traditional center role and will not have to facilitate from behind the arc as frequently.
Golden State Warriors Season Expectations
The expectation is that the Warriors can turn back the clock and win a championship. Their 2022 championship may turn out to be the final one in this era, but the front office has done everything they can to squeeze out one more. The Warriors are by far the oldest team in the league, with an average age of 28.8 years old. At the end of the season, Curry will be 36, Thompson will be 34, Paul will be 39, and Green will be 34. It remains to be seen if they can not only remain healthy throughout the season, but still perform at the level needed to win. Green is out for the first 3-4 weeks of the season, and last year was the first time since 2017 he eclipsed 70 games played in a season. The injury issues surrounding this team will be their ceiling, as when healthy, there is no doubt Curry, Paul, Green, Thompson, and Andrew Wiggins can win an NBA title. Their regular season win total of 48.5 wins puts them 3rd in the West, and securing home court advantage has already proven to be a huge difference maker for this team, who went 33-8 at home compared to 11-30 on the road last season.
Golden State Warriors Schedule Breakdown
After a home game against the Suns to open up the season, the Warriors are on the road for 7 of the next 8 games. If their poor road form carries over from last season, the Warriors could find themselves in a hole early. Of course, these early road games are followed up with 6 straight at home, against the Cavaliers, Rockets, Timberwolves x2, and Thunder x2. These are 6 very winnable games and will tell us a lot about the Warriors after the first quarter of the season. They finish off the season with 16 of their final 25 games on the road, and could see any momentum built throughout the season come screeching to a halt before the postseason.
Golden State Warriors Odds
The retooled Warriors lineup has the 5th best title odds at +1200 and will be confident they have what it takes to emerge from a murky Western conference. It wouldn’t be a shock to see the Warriors make another deep title run, and betting against the Splash Brothers has not been a profitable endeavor over the last decade. The more intriguing market in my eyes is the in season tournament. The Warriors are pitted against the Kings, Timberwolves, Thunder, and Spurs in the tournament. And considering it is early on in the season, the aging core will not be feeling the effects of an 82-game season quite yet. They are +160 to win the group, and +1200 to win the tournament. Considering the nature of the tournament compared to the traditional postseason, it is surprising to see the two get pegged with the same odds.
Golden State Warriors 2023-24 Season Predictions
I thought the Warriors were very fortunate to advance past the Kings in the playoffs last season and will not be betting on them to make a deep playoff run this year. I just can’t get past their age. Paul, Curry, and Green will all see a decline in their production, as they can’t quite battle at the same pace in their mid-30’s. I anticipate another low seed finish, similar to their 44-38 record, and 6th seed finish from last season. A total of 48.5 wins seems quite high for a team that only got a slight upgrade in Paul and will be missing one of their key players in Green to begin the season. However, I am all over them to do well in the tournament. The fact that it is early on in the season could allow the Warriors to remain healthy and take advantage. I am shocked we are getting +1200 on them to lift the trophy and will be heavily betting that market. They have a winnable group, then just have to win 3 more games after that. At +1200, this is a great investment, and will give you plenty of hedging opportunities down the line. After lifting the inaugural championship, the Warriors will limp over the finish line, finishing 42-40, and find themselves in the play-in tournament. Regardless of whether or not they make the playoffs, the Warriors won’t win a playoff series this year, and Chris Paul will retire ringless.
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