2009-10 Golden State Warriors Predictions
by Justin Johnson - 10/10/2009
2008-09 Record: 29-53
Home: 23-16-1 Away: 15-24-2
Home: 27-13 Away: 16-25
Projected Starting Five: PG, Monta Ellis. SG, Stephen Curry. SF, Stephen Jackson. PF, Anthony Randolph. C, Andris Biedrins.
Breakdown: Anyone who has followed Don Nelson's career knows it usually goes like this: Early success, lots of points, roster turnover, fight with players, burnt bridges. So it will be interesting to see how the Golden State Warriors will push past the "fight with players" stage they are slowly approaching.
The Warriors scored a lot of points (108.6 per game) in 2008-09 but still only won 29 games mainly because they gave up even more (112.3 per game). The trend looks like it will continue as Golden State did nothing to add defense to the roster, instead going the way of more offense.
Stephen Curry led the nation in scoring last season as a junior at Davidson, averaging 28.4 points per game, and he will likely slide in at the shooting guard position, allowing Monta Ellis to go back to the point.
Stephen Jackson looks to be healthy after his season ended early in 2008-09. If he can play pain free his ability to replicate the 20.7 points per game he averaged is almost certain.
Ten-year veteran Corey Maggette will most likely slide to the bench as the sixth-man but can play at either the shooting guard or small forward spot.
The front court with Randolph and Biedrins should be sufficient if Randolph continues to develop. He scored 42 points in a summer league game this offseason and looks like the player the Warriors drafted out of LSU. Biedrins gives Golden State a legitimate post player but gets into foul trouble pretty regularly.
The bench, outside of Maggette, does not look that great. Ronny Turiaf will be the primary big man off the bench. He can give quality minutes and bang around but his basketball acumen leaves a lot to be desired.
2009-10 Golden State Warriors Predictions: Nelly loves to score and seems to hate defense. And it looks as though he has shaped the roster in that manner again. With the ever-improving Western Conference the outscore-the-opponent philosophy will not cut it in 2009-10. If the Warriors do indeed start Ellis and Curry they will be one of the smallest backcourts in the league, let alone the conference. Continuing to play lax defense will catch up with them. A dip from 29 wins back to the 22-25 range could be in the future, a fourth place division finish, and no playoffs yet again for Golden State.
Futures Consideration - BetUS
Unless the moon and planets align there is very little concern for the rest of the West that the Warriors will win the conference. They are more likely to finish in the bottom four than the top four in the West and the early line bears that out with the Warriors as a +8000 bet to win the conference.
One of the major benefactors of playing in the up-tempo, no-defense style of play will be sharp shooting Stephen Curry. At a +500 to win the Rookie of the Year Curry could be a very good play. As the No. 3 scoring threat on a team that will average 100 points, Curry could be in line to pile upwards of 18 points and five assists per game, which could be enough to get him in the discussion.
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