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2022-23 Memphis Grizzlies Predictions and Futures Odds Picks

by Spencer Toth - 10/6/2022

The Memphis Grizzlies will be looking to replicate their regular season success from 2021-2022 following their second-place finish in the West. Led by Most Improved Player Ja Morant, the Grizzlies are an arguably better team than last season and will be hoping to better translate their regular season results into the postseason. Will the Grizzlies be able to keep up with a new look Western Conference? Or were they a one season wonder that get sent plummeting back down the standings?

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Memphis Grizzlies predictions Ja Morant

Offseason Recap

The Grizzlies had a very limited offseason. While they lost no key players, they were also unable to lure another star into Memphis. Their biggest addition is 3-time championship winner Danny Green. Green is a 3-point specialist that brings another option from beyond the arc into the fold. Through a combination of good luck and clutch shots, Green finds himself looking for his fourth ring with yet another different team. Also joining the Grizzlies are their two first-round and two second-round draft picks from the recent draft, featuring 19th overall selection Jake LaRavia.

Season Expectations

Memphis is entering the upcoming season with title aspirations. After being eliminated in the second round of last year's playoffs by the eventual champion Golden State, the Grizzlies will be hoping they have the right pieces to make it a few steps further this season. They will be happy with the second-place finish last season. And considering their win total of 49.5 sees them projected to a 5th place finish, anything similar to 2022 will be a success.

The upcoming season hinges on their budding superstar, Morant. After playing only 57 games last season, Morant will be hoping he is able to stay on the floor more consistently and replicate his 27.4 PPG of last year. The athleticism, speed, and vision of Morant makes him one of the more successful and entertaining point guards. There is reason for optimism in Memphis, as the team posted a 20-5 record in the games Morant missed last year. If the role players in Memphis can step up once again, there will be another winning season on the cards.

Schedule Breakdown

The Grizzlies have a rather favorable schedule. There are no grueling road trips filled with back-to-backs, as the longest trip is five games long. Considering Morant is coming off a rather serious knee injury, this bodes well for his ability to play an increased number of games this year. One nasty set of games the Grizzlies must be weary of is heading into Christmas. After facing the Nuggets and the Suns on the road, the Grizzlies are pegged for a Christmas Day encounter against Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors. Morant was the ringleader in getting this game scheduled, as he repeatedly requested this exact fixture. He’ll have an opportunity to ball out on the national stage, and a win will be the best Christmas gift of all.

Memphis Grizzlies Odds

Memphis is not expected to repeat their 56-win, second place finish of the 2021-2022 season, with their win total set at 49.5 wins. At first glance, this seems odd as the Grizzlies lost no key players and were missing Morant for 25 games last year. However, with many of the Western conference foes having a greatly bolstered roster, the Grizzlies have an uphill battle ahead.


The Grizzlies have a weaker division, featuring the Mavericks and the Pelicans. At +125 odds, they are coming in tied with the Mavericks for the best odds to win the Southwest, and there is certainly value there. One step further sees them sitting at +650 for the No. 1 overall seed and +2200 to win the championship.

These Grizzlies overachieved last season, and I’m expecting some regression here. If Under 49.5 is the way to look, another interesting play is +200 on the Grizzlies to make the play-in tournament. Considering the 46-win Timberwolves were in the tournament last season, the value on a Grizzlies downswing is immaculate.

2022-2023 Season Predictions

I’m not going to beat around the bush, I’m expecting a downswing for the Grizzlies. I’m not saying that Morant is going to no longer be an effective point guard. However, expecting him to replicate the 27.4 PPG of last year, on a possibly worse knee, is unrealistic. The reigning MIP will still see a 20-25 PPG season, but it will not be enough as the Grizzlies end up with a 44-38 season and a seventh-place finish.

At +200, I will certainly be taking the Grizzlies to fall short of expectations and be featured in the play-in tournament. As said, the value this play has cannot be denied, and it will certainly be a nailbiter in the final stretch of the season. The Grizzlies are missing the second elite scorer required to compete at the top of the West. While they managed to survive last year without it, that will not be happening again. After cruising through the play-in, they will exit the first round in six games.

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