2023 Memphis Grizzlies Predictions with Futures Odds and Expert NBA Picks
The Grizzlies are still in search of the franchise’s first Finals appearance and will be eager to oust the bitter taste of a first round defeat out of their mouths. Ja Morant has proven he can lead an NBA franchise, but his off-court issues have prevented the Grizzlies from gaining any traction in the league.
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Memphis Grizzlies Offseason Recap
The offseason in Memphis was dominated by their troublemakers. Morant got himself suspended for the first 25 games of the season thanks to his antics involving firearms, and the Grizzlies traded away long-time pest Dillon Brooks. The absence of Morant will surely be felt in the early stages of the season, as his 26.2 PPG will be hard to replace, and the explosivity he brings onto the court is rarely seen in the NBA. Life without Brooks will be a lot easier to get used to, as while the Canadian was a solid member of the squad, his tendency to turn their games into spectacles caused a distraction to the team. The tenacity he brings on defense was one of the key characteristics for Memphis, and they will need to keep that up if they are hoping to finish in the Top 2 in the West for the 3rd straight season.
One notable addition for Memphis is Marcus Smart. Smart is no stranger to the league’s fine system and will be the perfect replacement for Brooks. A key difference is while Smart brings the same defensive tenacity and ability to get under the opponents’ skin, he is able to turn it back when necessary and play smart basketball. The 2022 DPOY can shoot the ball from deep, and his 6.3 Assists last season set a career high. Joining Smart in the backcourt is Derrick Rose. Rose may be past the prime of his career, but the former MVP still brings a winning mentality to Memphis, something they have struggled with in the postseason. His valuable minutes off the bench will turn the Grizzlies into a very different team compared to when Smart is at point guard and will make them a very tough team to shut down for an entire 48 minutes.
Memphis Grizzlies Season Expectations
The Grizzlies are in an interesting position, as they’ve had fantastic regular season success, but have failed to replicate that good form in the postseason. Their 56-win campaign two seasons ago was their best in franchise history, and their 51 wins last year was still just the 6th time they’ve finished with 50+ wins. However, just one playoff series win in the last 10 years will not go a long way to satisfy the Grizzlies faithful. They are once again expected to finish in the top half of the West, with a win total of 46.5 wins. The loss of Morant for the first third of the season will hurt, but the addition of Smart and the subtraction of Brooks still has this team in a much better place than a year ago. Their success won’t be measured in the regular season, as another high seed followed by a first-round exit is not what the franchise, or the fans, are after.
Memphis Grizzlies Schedule Breakdown
The schedule for Memphis is critical, as they will be without their best player for the first 25 games and cannot afford to dig themselves too big a hole to climb out of. They play a home-heavy schedule early and have several very winnable games in the front section of their schedule. They play the Rockets x3, Jazz x3, Trail Blazers x2, Spurs, Pacers, and Wizards. If they can take care of business against the bottom feeders without Morant, and they have him return with a ,500 record, they will put themselves in a great position to secure home court advantage in the postseason once again.
Memphis Grizzlies Odds
The Grizzlies are expected to take a hit to their wins, as their 46.5 total has them projected to have their worst season since the NBA bubble. Their +2500 odds have them outside the top 10 but provide fantastic upside if the Grizzlies can make a deep playoff run. It isn’t surprising to see the Grizzlies have long odds in the postseason considering the lack of recent postseason success, but it is surprising to see them expected to take a step back in the regular season. They had an 11-10 record without Morant last season and have proven they can win without him. Smart is a clear upgrade over Brooks, and expecting the Grizzlies to finish under 50 wins feels disrespectful.
Memphis Grizzlies 2023-24 Season Predictions
I expect the Grizzlies to put together another solid regular season campaign, despite the hole at guard without Morant. The bulk of their lineup is just hitting their primes, and there is no reason to expect them to fail to put a record well better than .500 on the board. They’ve proven they are among the best teams in the world, and I’ll go a step further than Over 46.5 wins and take them to get 50+ wins at +155, as I expect them to finish with a 52-30 record. They have the shooting, defense, and a clean health record needed to succeed throughout a grueling 82-game season. In the in-season tournament, expecting them to emerge from a group featuring the Suns and Lakers without Morant is a tall task. Instead, look ahead to the postseason and take them to win the West at +1400. Holding these two plus money bets in our pocket will age nicely, as the Grizzlies quietly put together their 3rd straight 50-win campaign. I won’t go as far as calling the Grizzlies to win the West. However, at +1400 odds, there is certainly value for them to do just that. `
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