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NBA MVP Odds and Predictions from Expert Pro Basketball Handicapper

by Matt Zitt - 6/20/2024

NBA MVP odds predictions Victor Wembanyama San Antonio Spurs

The Boston Celtics steamrolled the competition into oblivion on their way to their 18th title in the history of the organization. With the season officially in the books, it is never too early to begin looking at next season. Sportsbooks have already released odds on next year’s MVP, and that is what we are going to dissect to see who the top contenders are and if there are any value picks. Doc’s Sports will break down the 2024-25 MVP race below.

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Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets, +380

The Joker locked up his third MVP award this past season, and that makes three out of the last four seasons he has taken home the hardware. He led the Nuggets to the No. 2 seed this past season after averaging 26.4 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 9.0 assists per game, which were all top-10 marks league-wide. He also led the NBA in advanced ratings, such as Wins Shared, PER, VORP, and Box Plus/Minus. Jokic will be 29 years old when the 2024-25 season begins and is in the prime of his career. He has made All-NBA First or Second Team each of the past six seasons. The Denver superstar is currently one of nine players to win three MVP awards, and only five players have won four. There is a solid chance Jokic adds to his trophy case.

Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks, +380

Fresh off leading the Mavericks to the NBA Finals against the Celtics, Doncic is tied with Jokic for the shortest odds to take home the MVP next season. An MVP award in 2024-25 would make him a first-time recipient, and he has a solid resume up to this point of his career. He has five First Team All-NBA honors, the most recent coming last season after leading the league in scoring with 33.9 points per game. Doncic has averaged at least 27.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 8.0 assists per game each of the last five years. This past season was the first time he has finished in the top three in MVP voting, and that makes five straight top-10 MVP finishes. If the Mavs can keep momentum rolling into next year and increase their regular season win total, he will have as good of a chance as anyone to be named MVP.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder, +550

Gilgeous-Alexander made significant strides this past season, averaging 30.1 points per game on 53.5% shooting from the floor en route to a second-place finish in MVP voting. He enters the offseason tied for the third-shortest odds to take home the award in 2024-25. He led the OKC Thunder to the second-best record in the NBA with a 57-25 record, while earning the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. SGA was awarded First Team All-NBA for the second straight season and balled out on the biggest stage in the playoffs. The 25-year-old averaged 30.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 6.4 assists per game across 10 playoff games. A guard has not won the MVP since the 2017-18 season. However, if the Thunder take another step forward next year, SGA has a solid chance at the coveted award.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks, +550

The Greek Freak is a two-time MVP award recipient and is currently tied with SGA in odds to take home the 2024-25 MVP award. Giannis has finished inside the top five of MVP voting in each of the past six seasons. He finished fourth last season after averaging 30.4 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per game. Antetokounmpo was near the top of the league in several advanced metrics, such as third in Box Plus/Minus, VORP, and Win Shares while finishing second in PER. Giannis possesses everything you want from an MVP candidate, especially with the Bucks in a win-now mode.

Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers, +550

Embiid took home MVP honors in the 2022-23 season and looked like a potential back-to-back MVPs before an injury ruined those chances last season. He played in just 39 games, which was his fewest since the 2016-17 campaign. Embiid averaged 34.7 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game in his injury-shortened year. The 76ers finished with a 47-35 record, their worst finish in four years, but went 31-8 when Embiid was active. Assuming the 76ers big man enters next season fully healthy, he has as good of a chance as anyone to win the hardware.

Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves, +1200

Ant Man finished seventh in MVP voting this past season and is coming off a run into the Western Conference Finals. He averaged 27.6 points, 7.0 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 2.9 threes, and 1.5 steals while shooting 40.0% from deep. Edwards should enter next season with a ton of momentum and confidence toward the individual honors. With rumors of Karl-Anthony Towns potentially getting traded, he may need to score even more going forward. Edwards is a good value play if he can make a few strides as a playmaker and ball-handler to contend with the Jokic’s and Doncic’s of the league.

Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks, +1800

Brunson finished fifth in MVP voting this past season and went on to average 32.4 points, 9.2 free-throw attempts, 7.5 assists, and 2.0 threes per game in the playoffs. He fits the bill of a superstar that can carry his organization to title contention. With all the injuries piling up for the Knicks, he was asked to shoot a lot more down the stretch, so it is possible his numbers take a dip when Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson, OG Anunoby, and Josh Hart enter next season fully healthy. Another top-five finish in MVP honors is not out of the question.

Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs, +4000

Some people may write this off with the Spurs struggling as a unit, but Wembanyama’s rookie campaign was ridiculous. He averaged 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 3.6 blocks, 1.8 threes, and 1.2 steals per game. No one in league history matched or exceeded all those marks for an entire season. There have only been six players to complete 20-10-3-3 seasons, and all six are in the Hall of Fame. Everyone expects an increase in production for Victor, but the tricky thing will be how the rest of his team does. MVP is tied to team success and the Spurs were one of the worst teams in the league. If the Spurs can bring in some more roster pieces to succeed, Wemby could be a dark horse candidate for MVP. 

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