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NBA MVP Odds and Predictions from Expert Pro Basketball Handicapper

by Matt Zitt - 10/5/2023

NBA MVP odds and predictions Luka Doncic

The NBA’s Most Valuable Player Award saw a new winner in 2022-23, as Philadelphia 76’ers Joel Embiid took home the hardware after a phenomenal season. The big man led the league in scoring and dominated competition down the stretch to pull away from the reigning award winner, Nikola Jokic. We are just under three weeks away from opening night, and it is time to speculate who will win the award this upcoming season. Will it go to another first-time winner? Will Jokic ride his historic playoff run into a third MVP Award? Doc’s Sports will break down some of the best bets for the 2023-24 NBA MVP Award.

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Nikola Jokic +450

You cannot go wrong taking Jokic. He has won the MVP Award two times and finished second in MVP voting this past season. He is favored for a reason, and there is no doubt his postseason performance also has something to do with it. The 28-year-old continues to put up video game level numbers as he averaged 24.5 points per game last season. He also averaged 11.8 rebounds per contest and dished out 9.8 assists per game while also shooting 63.2% from the field. He is a triple-double machine, and the Nuggets are expected to be just as good in 2023-24 as they were last year. As the league’s clear-cut best player, it will take a massive effort from another candidate to bypass Jokic.

Luka Doncic +500

Doncic has been an MVP favorite for several years and was a popular pick before the 2022-23 season. The 24-year-old is a triple-double machine, and it is only a matter of time before he is awarded the honor. Doncic averaged 32.4 points per game last season, which was second-best in the league. He also averaged 8.6 rebounds and 8.0 assists per game. In only five career seasons, he has already cracked the top-10 in career triple-doubles with 56. The MVP Award usually goes to the league’s best player on the league’s best team, but there are exceptions. Whether the Mavericks can be elite, Luka is the exception.

Giannis Antetokounmpo +550

The Greek Freak is the NBA’s best two-way player, and it is not even close. He has five All-Defensive selections and a Defensive Player of the Year Award to his credit. This past season, he averaged a career-high 31.1 points per game. He also tallied 11.8 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game. His efficiency could be argued as the best in the NBA. Out of all players that averaged 30 or more points per game, Giannis averaged the fewest minutes per game by a considerable margin. Antetokounmpo is as good as a bet you can place on this award.  

Jayson Tatum +800

Tatum is another player that delivered a career year in 2022-23. He averaged 30.1 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game. He is obviously not the triple-double machine that the first two candidates have been, but there is still room for him to improve. He finished fourth in MVP voting last season, and there is no reason to believe he will not be in the mix this year. The Celtics reloaded by adding Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis and will be an elite unit in the NBA this season. I certainly see Tatum winning an MVP Award at some point in his NBA career.

Stephen Curry +1500

Injuries and the Warriors’ sloppy road play put a dent in Curry’s MVP hopes in 2022-23. Despite only playing in 56 games, he was still very efficient. Curry averaged 29.4 points per game on .493/.427/.915 shooting splits and logged his highest effective field goal percentage (61.4%) since the 2017-18 season. Even though he will turn 36 by the end of this season, if he can operate at the same efficiency and the Warriors can win a handful of more road games, he will be in the mix for the award. He provides good value at 15-1 for a team that is never out of it.

2023-24 NBA MVP Odds

Nikola Jokic +450

Luka Doncic +500

Giannis Antetokounmpo +550

Joel Embiid +650

Jayson Tatum +800

Kevin Durant +1400

Stephen Curry +1500

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +1600

Trae Young +1800

Devin Booker +1800

LeBron James +1900

Damian Lillard +2200

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