2023 Portland Trail Blazers Predictions with Futures Odds and Expert NBA Picks
It’s a new era in Portland. After spending his whole career with the franchise, Damian Lillard has been traded to the Milwaukee Bucks. The 7-time All-Star had the best season of his career last year, scoring a mammoth 32.2 PPG. While his departure will be heavily felt by the Portland faithful, the lack of any No. 1 presence will allow the Trail Blazers rising core to have more opportunities on the ball and could result in a breakout star emerging for Portland.
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Portland Trail Blazers Offseason Recap
The biggest move in the offseason was the Lillard trade, but the Trail Blazers made several other moves to bolster their future. In return for Lillard, starting center Jusuf Nurkic and Nassir Little, the Trail Blazers acquired Deandre Ayton and Jrue Holiday. Ayton’s contract was an issue for the Suns, but the Trail Blazers have plenty of room to accommodate the disgruntled star. Ayton became a distraction for Phoenix, but he still brings plenty of fire with him every time he steps on the court. He hauled in 10+ rebounds per game for the 5th straight time last season and scored 18 PPG to go along with it. The former first overall pick hasn’t been able to live up to pre-draft expectations, but a fresh change of scenery could be exactly what he needs to reignite his career.
Holiday didn’t stay a Trail Blazer very long, as Portland flipped him for Robert Williams, Malcolm Brodgon and a pair of first-round picks just 3 days later. Williams will be a great backup for Ayton and leaves Portland with a capable rim protector regardless of who is on the floor. Brogdon is unlikely to slot into the starting lineup, as they will be eager to give their 3rd overall pick Scoot Henderson a chance to succeed.
Henderson has all the tools surrounding him to start off his career on the right foot. Several of the Trail Blazers will be playing with a chip on their shoulder, and high intensity atmospheres without the pressure of any sustained success will allow Henderson to take his time and develop into a lethal point guard.
Portland Trail Blazers Season Expectations
Now that Lillard is gone, the Trail Blazers have seen themselves shoot down the pre-season projections. Their 29.5-game win total is the lowest in the Western Conference, and they are expected to be in pole position to acquire another top talent in next year’s draft. This season will be graded on development. Henderson will have all eyes on him as he is expected to follow in Lillard’s footsteps and become the franchise’s next great point guard. Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons both posted 20+ PPG last season, despite Lillard chucking up 20.7 shots per game. Assuming Henderson won’t have the same workload in his rookie campaign, Simons and Grant will have plenty of opportunities to prove they deserve to be a part of the Trail Blazers long term plan. Expectations will be limited, but that doesn’t mean the Trail Blazers cannot have a productive season.
Portland Trail Blazers Schedule Breakdown
Portland plays 7 of their first 10 games on the road, and their incoming rookie class will quickly get a feel for what it is like playing in a hostile NBA atmosphere. Lucky for the players, they will get to spend a bulk of the holiday season at home, as 8 of their final 9 games in 2023 will be played in Portland. However, their 2024 starts off with a 7-game road trip in 12 days, which will be a difficult stretch for the Trail Blazers to put wins on the board.
Portland Trail Blazers Odds
Considering their 29.5-game win total, it should come as no surprise to see Portland with +25000 odds to win the championship and whopping +1125 odds to participate in the postseason at all. They lack the immediate upside some of the fellow bottom feeders possess, and expecting any sort of sustained success for the Trail Blazers feels like a stretch of the imagination.
In the in-season tournament, the small sample size always leads to a chance for a big upset, but in a group featuring the Suns, Lakers, Grizzlies, and Jazz, even at +1200 odds, the Trail Blazers are a long shot to top the group.
2023-24 Season Predictions
There are some basement teams I have optimism around, but the Trail Blazers are not one of them. Ayton isn’t capable of leading the scoring for Portland, and relying on Grant, Simons, or Henderson to top the team will not put the Trail Blazers in a position to win on a nightly basis.
The gap between the top and bottom teams is always shrinking in the NBA, but Portland is still a long way off from competing. At 29.5 wins, I’ll happily take the Under, as I see Portland finishing 22-50 this season. I wasn’t able to find a line, but I expect Portland to finish with the league’s worst record and would play that prop all the way to +300 odds. Henderson may become the next generational talent, but we haven’t seen him in charge of leading an NBA team before, and Portland lacks the strong leadership needed to boost up their incoming class of prospects. They won’t be anywhere near the postseason by the All-Star break and may look to offload Ayton, Brogdon, and Williams when that probability becomes a reality.
Lillard delivered countless memorable moments for this fan base, but it will be a long time before the Portland fans are able to feel joy surrounding this team once again. Under 29.5 wins is a great bet, and Portland will find themselves as heavy underdogs in almost every game this season.
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