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2022 San Diego State Aztecs Football Predictions and Betting Odds

by Cameron McQuade - 6/29/2022

San Diego State Aztecs football predictions Jesse Matthews

Coach Brady Hoke was at San Diego State in 2010, resulting in a good season. He then went to Michigan in 2011, returned to San Diego in 2020, and last year it all came together with a historic 12-win season. After going 12-2 while only allowing only 19.8 points per game in 2021, the San Diego State Aztecs defense should rank among the top in the league with seven starters returning.

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Offense / Defense

For the fourth straight season, San Diego State will have a new starting quarterback. Luckily for the Aztecs, it’s Virginia Tech graduate transfer Braxton Burmeister. The San Diego local returns home after starting all 12 regular-season games last year, passing for 1,960 yards with 14 TDs and four interceptions. Redshirt freshman Will Haskell also has eyes on him due to his crazy athleticism. It should be a healthy competitive team environment at the QB position this year.

San Diego’s go-to running game may not prevail this season. They have no 1,000-yard back returning and may use a committee this season.  The quarterbacks will benefit from the presence of senior WR Jesse Matthews (57 catches, 642 yards, nine TDs) and Tyrell Shavers, a 6'6" senior transfer from Mississippi State.

Coming into 2022, San Diego State will be without Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year Cameron Thomas — and could still be even better this season. The linebacking corps are going to be unreal, and the D Line even better. Jonah Tavai is one of the best inside or outside rushers, and his brother, Justus, is also joining the team. Uh oh. The depth the defense has on this team is great, so the Aztecs can mess around and find the right combination in the 3-3-5.

Keys to the 2022 Season

The Aztecs must move the chains. The offense only converted just 32% of their third down tries, which needs to be MUCH better. Last season when the pass rush improved, the defense went to another level. The 2017 defense averaged 1.77 sacks per game. In 2018, improved to 2.4 per game, in 2019, 2.5 and in 2020, and it kept the trend going up with 2.93 sacks per game, with the pressure coming from a whole lot of spots. Losing PK/P Matt Araiza is tough. Said to be the best punter in college football, the Aztecs will need Jack Browning Jr., a JUCO transfer, to carry the new weight.  San Diego is a team that lives on a thin margin and needs all the field position they can get to help the defense.

Key 2021 Stats

– Rushing Yards Per Game: SDSU 174.9 – Opponents 80.3
– Time of Possession: SDSU 32:05 – Opponents 27:55
– 3rd Quarter Scoring: SDSU 120 – Opponents 59

2022 Betting Odds and Trends with Predictions

The San Diego State Aztecs over/under this season is 7.5 wins. No one expects SDSU to match last season's school-record 12 victories, but the Aztecs have double-digit wins in 6 of their last 7 full seasons. They will also play real home games this season, after two seasons playing at Carson's Dignity Health Sports Park, SDSU's $310 million Snapdragon Stadium debuts with the Sept. 3 season opener against Arizona. With the momentum of a strong last season, and with the new home atmosphere, San Diego State should easily hit 9-10 wins in 2022. Their odds to win the Mountain West are +600 and to win the College Football Championship is at +60000.

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