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2021 Super Bowl First Half Betting Tips and Predictions

by Chris Vasile - 2/3/2021

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill

If you’re just starting out in the betting world, there are definitely going to be more questions than answers and you will definitely not understand a lot of the lingo or wagers that are available to be made. If you’re reading this article, I’d like to believe that you’ve put two and two together and understand that his article is about the outcome of the first half of Super Bowl LV.  Every single sport that is split into two halves (or four quarters) has a halftime line. Books post these lines as a way to get people to wager even more money on games where they feel they don’t have a true edge. These numbers are a bit skewed as they aren’t familiar to newbies and as such are very rarely hit as hard as full-game wagers. In a high-magnitude game like the Super Bowl, some of the obscure bets can offer up the most value.

For Super Bowl LV, the full-game spread is currently sitting at Kansas City -3. Because the spread is so low, you can almost guarantee the first-half line will be lower than the actual game spread. What I’ve found is that the Chiefs are -2.5 on the first half line, which tells us that the books are expecting the Chiefs to be in the lead and keep that winning margin throughout the contest. The total is set at 27.5, which is just under half of the full game total, which is 56. When the spread on the game is small, then your job in the first half becomes basically thinking about who will be leading, not how much they will be leading by.

Which Team Will Start on Time? If you go back and look at the Chiefs’ starts in the regular season, you’ll find that they have led at halftime in 10 of their 16 regular-season games. They were tied at the half twice and were trailing four times (including Week 17 where they rested their starters). The Chiefs are notorious for starting “on time”. And with such an explosive offense like they possess, Mahomes and Co. are always a threat to score and put up a boatload of points in a hurry. Just ask Tampa, who trailed 20-7 heading into the half in their Week 12 meeting this season. The Chiefs have also led at the half in both playoff games this season, which is a far cry from their run last year where they found themselves in a 24-0 hole to the Texans. If the Chiefs get rolling early, Tampa could be in for a long night.

There is another aspect when talking about Kansas City, and that was last year’s Super Bowl half time result. They were in a defensive battle with the 49ers for the first 30 minutes of the contest and went into the break tied at 10. One would think that the Chiefs will have learned from that game and know what to expect come game time on Sunday, so that would be to the Chiefs’ advantage.

On the flip side, the Bucs (+130 first half ML) have gone into the halftime break with a lead in just seven of their 16 regular-season games. They went in tied once and were behind eight times. In those contests, they also failed to stay within the +2.5 spread in all but one of the games. The Bucs, similar to the Chiefs, have an explosive offense, but from what I’ve seen from them all season long, it takes a while to get going. They like to establish the run and force defenses to show their hand before Brady takes over and starts chucking the ball downfield. This game figures to be close at every point in the contest. And with the spread where it is, the value may lie with the Bucs to stay within the number – perhaps a tie at halftime.

Is Wagering on the Half Time Result Smart?

Well, depending on who you ask, yes and no. What do I think? I think any wager that wins you money is a smart bet. If you truly believe that the game is going to be decided on the last possession or is going to be as close as the full-game spread indicates, then lay off and enjoy the finale. You can find some value in wagering on the half-time line because teams will want to come out and assert themselves first and grab an early lead. If you believe that either team has an advantage early, then by all means grab that half-time line and stick to your guns. Ultimately, the final decision on the wagers you place is up to you, so I wouldn’t let anyone talk you out of something you like, whether that be the halftime line, the full game line, or a few player props. Just, for the sake of god, don’t wager on the coin toss.

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