NFL Season Player Props Odds and Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 5/29/2013
There is still a whole summer standing between us and football, but it is never too early to start thinking about the NFL — or betting on it, for that matter. Bovada has a long list of NFL player props available for action now. Here’s a look at some of the more interesting opportunities:
Mike Wallace — Total receptions “over/under” 62.5
Two years ago Wallace had 72 receptions. Last year he had 64 in just 15 games. Things are very different this year, though, now that he has taken his talents to South Beach. How is that move going to impact his productivity? Hard to say, for sure. On one hand he is now unquestionably the man — the first target and the best deep threat the team has. He’s also playing for a coach in Joe Philbin who loves to go deep. On the other hand, Ryan Tannehill isn’t the most accurate or productive passer — or at least he hasn’t been so far. There also is a solid drop off from Wallace to the second option, so defenses are going to be able to direct a lot of attention at him. Add it all up, and I am reasonably optimistic. I think the Dolphins are poised to take a decent step forward, and Wallace will be both a cause and a beneficiary. I like the over.
Tony Gonzalez — Total receptions over/under 75.5
Gonzalez is unquestionably and obviously a great player. He spent far too long flirting with his future this year, though, and I can’t shake the feeling that this is one year too many for his career. He caught 93 passes last year and 80 the year before, but I expect a real step backwards this year. Health could be a factor, too, since he is 37. The under is a solid play here.
Ed Reed —Total interceptions over/under 4.5
This one is very easy to pick in my eyes, and that makes me a little sad. Reed’s body is letting him down, and though he has played 16 games each of the last two years, he has not been anywhere near where he was at his peak. He has averaged 3.5 interceptions the last two years. Now he has to adapt to a new system and new opponents. Could he have a resurgence and return to earlier production — like when he had eight picks in 10 games in 2010? Sure — he has instincts like few before him. I just don’t believe that it is a good bet that he will do so. Pessimism is depressing, but in this case it will be profitable — the under is the clear pick.
Percy Harvin — Total receiving yards over/under 999.5
I will take the under on this one all day. I respect Harvin for his speed and wow factor, but I just can’t get behind him as a potential 1,000-yard receiver. He was only healthy enough to play nine games last year. Now he moves to a new team where he has to justify a massive investment. The Seahawks are going to be aggressive in their usage of him, and I just don’t believe he will hold up and remain productive for a whole season. It somehow feels wrong to bet that a guy will be injured, but I guess that that is what I am doing here. I will take the under.
Wes Welker — Total receptions over/under 90.5
In 2010 Welker played 15 games and had 86 catches. That was the only time in the last six years that he didn’t have at least 111 receptions. He is making a move to a new system, so his chemistry with his new quarterback might not be what it was with Tom Brady all these years. The new guy isn’t exactly a slouch, though, and Welker is a style of player that Manning will be comfortable with. The over isn’t a lock, but it is certainly a reasonable bet. I expect Welker to be hungry and active this year. If he wasn’t, then he would have traveled the far easier path and stayed with New England to finish out his career instead of taking this step into the unknown.
Alex Smith — Total passing yards over/under 3000
I am very optimistic about Smith this year. He is a talented quarterback who has really grown into himself the last couple of years. He got a raw deal in San Francisco last year, and he will be very driven to prove himself here. Andy Reid is a perfect fit for Smith’s style, and there is some solid talent around Smith — far better than their record the last two years has indicated. The over is a comfortable play here.
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