2018 LSU Tigers Season Win Total Picks and Predictions for NCAA Football
2017 Record: 9-4
2018 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 7.0
2018 Season Win Total Picks NCAA Football: 'Under'
If you enjoy Cajun gibberish and poor quarterback play then LSU is the team for you.
Head coach Ed Orgeron enters his second full season as the head man in Baton Rouge and, frankly, things aren't looking great for the Tigers. Orgeron, who has a 31-33 career record, barely survived last season in a pathetically weak SEC. With just 10 returning starters and a dearth of top-end talent, I think that this year could be a watershed moment for the LSU program after running Les Miles out of town.
LSU had exactly one good win last year, a fluke four-point win at home over Auburn in a game in which they trailed 20-0 as a seven-point underdog. Beyond that, LSU lost at home to Troy, nearly lost at home to Syracuse, and barely beat a bad Florida team on the road. Those games were all major red flags. And LSU's 9-4 record was not nearly as impressive as it seems at first glance.
The Tigers lost their starting quarterback, mediocre Danny Etling. They also lost their top four rushers, including top draft pick Derrius Guice, as well as four of their top five receivers. Defensively, five of their top eight tacklers (and seven of 13) are no longer with the program.
Sure, there are three or four future pros on the roster, including linebacker Devin White and corner Greedy Williams. But they have just three senior starters, and this roster isn't nearly as competitive as it was during Miles' top years.
LSU does not have a favorable schedule, either. They will get a shot at Miami, a Top 15 team, in Arlington, to open the season. After that they have a layup against SE Louisiana and two other easy nonconference games versus Louisiana Tech and Rice. They should manage at least three wins of those four non-league games.
But can the Tigers win the five SEC games they would need to top this Vegas season win total? They've won at least five league games eight times in the past 10 years, including last season (6-2).
It won't be as easy this year. LSU has to travel to Auburn and Florida. They also have to face improved Arkansas and Texas A&M squads away from home. LSU hosts Top 5 powerhouses Georgia and Alabama as well. They do get the two Mississippi schools in Baton Rouge as well.
Are there five wins on that SEC slate? They will be underdogs in at least four of those games (at Auburn, UF, UGA and 'Bama). So right off the bat they have to pull at least one upset to get to five. Mississippi State is no joke, and LSU would still have to sweep its November road games. So it is not an easy path to eight.
I don't see it happening. I think that Orgeron is a clown. I also think that this is the least-talented LSU team we've seen in a decade. Add in a brutal schedule, and things aren't looking great for the Tigers. This isn't shocking. Most teams experience a rebuilding year in the second season of a new regime. But at LSU, where the expectations and stakes are higher, a 6-6 season won't be a welcome event.
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