2018 USC Trojans Season Win Total Picks and Predictions for NCAA Football
2017 Record: 11-3
2018 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 8.5
2018 Season Win Total Picks NCAA Football: 'Under'
I know that people continue to wait for USC to be "back" and to once again contend for national championships. But as I look at this Trojans squad I see one of the more overrated programs in the country.
So when I see a season win total posted this low, when the books just KNOW that the public is going to pound the 'over' for the Trojans, it starts setting off alarm bells and I start to hear Admiral Ackbar's voice in my ear yelling, "It's a trap!"
USC has averaged nine wins and three losses per season over the last 10 years. That's outstanding! However, it always feels like USC underachieves compared to the impossibly high bar set by Pete Carroll and his special USC teams of the early and mid-2000s.
The Trojans are just 34-47 against the spread over the last six seasons. That includes an ugly 4-10 ATS mark last year for a team that won the Pac-12 championship and played in the Cotton Bowl. Betting on the Trojans every week has yielded a profit for the full season only one time in the last six years.
USC is looking to replace star quarterback and Top 5 draft pick Sam Darnold. Either redshirt sophomore Matt Fink or Top 10 freshman recruit J.T. Daniels will be tasked with filling the void. And whoever does so will have a stacked receiving corps and a stellar offensive line to work behind. USC was No. 13 in the nation in total offense last year but just No. 35 in scoring, averaging just 32.6 points per game. It's not unreasonable to think that with better ball security (Darnold threw 13 interceptions) this year's offense can be even more explosive.
Clay Helton's squad has to show marked improvement on the defensive side of the ball after another mediocre effort on that side of the ball. USC got a huge boost when linebacker Cameron Smith shockingly decided to stay in school. And if John Houston and Christian Rector continue to develop then this squad can have a dominating front six.
The Trojans also have a wealth of experience in the secondary. Ajene Harris is a three-year starter, while Iman Marshall and Marvell Tell are both four-year starters. That trio has to be better than the No. 82-ranked pass defense that they contributed to last fall.
USC has the benefit of playing in the Pac-12 South, the weaker of the league's two divisions this season. But that doesn't mean that they have an easy schedule. USC has to play five Pac-12 road games, including rough trips to Stanford, Arizona and Utah. They also have two really difficult nonconference games at Texas and at home against Notre Dame. They do avoid Washington and Oregon out of the North. And their late-season league schedule is among the easiest in the conference.
However, I don't think it is a stretch to think that USC could have at least two and as many as three losses by the end of September. Whoever takes over for Darnold is going to have to play very well, very quickly. And I think that there could be two more losses on the USC schedule waiting after their Oct. 6 bye.
This is a talented team. And it is tough to bet against talent. But I am still a bit wary of Helton. And I'm a little skeptical of the offense until I see who claims the starting quarterback job. These guys have a brutal September slate, and some early losses really could take the air out of their sails. I think that this season win total is a bit of a red flag, and I am going to play on the sharp side with the 'under'.
Robert Ferringo has been the top football handicapper in the country the past seven years, earning nearly $28,000 in total football profit. He has also posted seven of nine winning seasons (including back-to-back winning years) and produced 26 of 41 winning football months and an amazing 45 of 70 winning football months over the past decade. Robert has eight of 10 winning NFL preseasons and he is at nearly 60 percent winners over his last 900 totals picks. Also, Robert's proprietary KING College Football Betting System has posted three of five winning seasons. Robert is looking for a third straight winning football year and wants more profit this fall. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR 3-FOR-1 FOOTBALL SPECIALS!
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