Free Expert NFL Picks: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers Odds and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 11/6/2014
Full disclosure: I picked the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers to both finish 10-6 this season and for Chicago to win the NFC North via tiebreaker. So, yeah, I fell into the trap that is Jay Cutler. Silly me.
Coming out of a bye week -- as is Green Bay -- the Bears face a potential franchise-changing game on Sunday night at Lambeau Field. Chicago has lost four of its past five games, pretty much all in ugly fashion, to drop to 3-5. You are not making the playoffs with a 3-6 record. There are already rumors that Marc Trestman is too nice of a guy and that he has lost the locker room. If the Bears get housed by their arch-rivals, that could be a death sentence on the Trestman era. What makes it worse for Chicago fans is that GM Phil Emery chose Trestman over Bruce Arians, and Arians has the Cardinals with the best record in the NFL, and he's the Coach of the Year betting favorite at Bovada.
The bye probably came at just the right time for Green Bay as it had a four-game winning streak snapped in ugly fashion in Week 8 with a 44-23 blowout loss in New Orleans. It was easily the worst the Packers had locked since the season-opening loss in Seattle.
The Lions lead Green Bay by a game for first in the NFC North, but I fully expect the Packers to win that division a fourth straight season barring an Aaron Rodgers injury. Green Bay is the -150 favorite on Sportsbook.ag with Detroit at +120 and Chicago the +5000 long shot. The Packers are +400 co-favorites with Seattle to win the NFC Championship Game.
Bears at Packers Betting Story Lines
This isn't exactly a newsflash, but the Bears go as Jay Cutler does, and he simply hasn't been good of late. Forget his solid numbers against New England (20-for-30 for 227 yards, three touchdowns, one pick) as those were pretty much all garbage-time numbers. In every game that Chicago has lost, Cutler has thrown at least one pick. In three of them, he has thrown two. He has tossed eight on the season and also has nine fumbles. His 12 turnovers are an NFL high. There's talk that the Bears might have Cutler throwing on the move more going forward. Sounds like desperation to me.
Green Bay owns Cutler as he is 1-10 career against the Packers. In 10 regular-season games against the Pack, Cutler has passed for 2,184 yards, 13 touchdowns and 19 interceptions for a passer of 67.0. That lone win was in 2010. Under Trestman, the Bears are 8-0 when they win the turnover margin battle. When in the negative, Chicago is 2-9. Look for Chicago to run more as one complaint with Trestman is that he abandons the run too quickly. The Packers are dead last in rush defense, allowing 153.5 yards per game.
From an injury perspective, Chicago lost two starters in his final game before the bye: left guard Matt Slauson and defensive end Lamarr Houston, who tore up his knee celebrating a sack while down 25 points vs. the Patriots. Clown. Right tackle Jordan Mills missed the New England game with foot soreness but will play. It's not clear if it will be at right tackle or at Slauson's spot, with Michael Ola playing right tackle as he did against New England.
As usual, Green Bay's Rodgers is having an MVP-caliber season and he's +700 on Bovada's updated MVP props, behind Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger and DeMarco Murray. Rodgers was brilliant in that four-game winning streak but had two picks in the loss to New Orleans. Those were his first interceptions since Week 1. Bovada also offers a prop on how many touchdowns Green Bay's Randall Cobb will have this season, with the "over/under" at 14. Both options are -115. Cobb scored for the fifth straight game in Week 8, the first Packers wideout to do that since Greg Jennings in 2007. Cobb's nine TDs already are a career high, and he has scored in every game but one: a loss in Detroit.
Green Bay could be without both starting guards in this one. Neither T.L. Lang nor Josh Sitton had practiced through Thursday. Sitton said earlier this week that he thinks he can play with the torn ligament in his left big toe. Lang is still recovering from the sprained ankle he sustained against the Saints. Coach Mike McCarthy said he wouldn't hesitate to start both even without practicing.
This is game No. 190 in the NFL's oldest rivalry. Green Bay has won 10 of the past 12. Yes, the Bears won in Lambeau last year, but they knocked out Rodgers on the Packers' first possession with a broken collarbone. Back in Week 4 at Soldier Field the Packers entered at 1-2 and that was the week Rodgers told Packer Nation to "R-E-L-A-X!" Then he went out and had a near-perfect rating, completing 22 of 28 for 302 yards with four TDs (a fifth was called back by penalty) and no picks in a 38-17 win. Both Cobb and Jordy Nelson had at least 108 yards receiving and two scores. Cutler was picked off twice, but Matt Forte rushed for 122 yards. Chicago outgained Green Bay 496-358.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers NFL Week 10 Betting Odds and Trends
At 5Dimes , Green Bay is an 8-point favorite (+105) with alternate lines of 7.5 (+100) and 7 (-120). The Packers are -350 on the moneyline with the Bears +290. The total is 53.5. Chicago is 3-5 against the spread (3-2 on road) and 5-3 O/U (4-1 on road). Green Bay is 4-3-1 ATS (2-0-1 at home) and 7-1 O/U (3-0 at home).
Chicago is 0-4 ATS in its past four vs. the NFC North. It is 3-7 ATS in its past 10 vs. teams with a winning record. The Packers are 9-1 ATS in their past 10 off a bye. They are 0-6 ATS in their past six against teams with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in Chicago's past four vs. teams with a winning record. The over is 4-1 in Green Bay's past five after a loss. The road team has covered the past four meetings. The under is 5-1 in the past six meetings in Green Bay.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers Expert Picks and Betting Predictions
I've pretty much been wrong on Chicago all year, so I have no clue how the Bears play here. I am leaning toward desperate and pretty well. They should be unbeaten on the road if not for blowing a big lead at Carolina in Week 5. That 8-point spread is the highest I've seen, so I'm taking the points. I thought that total was perhaps a bit too high before checking the weather forecast. Now I love under as it's supposed to be in the high 30s with a 60 percent chance of rain/snow.
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