Free Expert NFL Picks: Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks Odds and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 9/18/2014
It's a game we all circled when the NFL schedule came out months ago as Denver visits Seattle on Sunday in a Super Bowl rematch that should draw monster ratings for CBS. What, are you going to watch Chiefs-Dolphins or 49ers-Cardinals instead? Those are the other two late-afternoon starts. In all honesty, Broncos-Seahawks really isn't that important this early in the year. Sure, you want to win every game to get the top seed in your conference, but if you are going to lose the best possible scenario is an out-of-conference game.
Of course Seattle stunned everyone with a 43-8 victory over favored Denver back on Feb. 2 at MetLife Stadium. The Seahawks scored a safety on the first offensive play of the game and would never trail. Peyton Manning was sacked just once, but he was under pressure all night and threw two interceptions. The Broncos turned it over four times overall, while the Seahawks didn't. Bovada is offering some rematch specials this week and I recommend you check them out. For example, you can get +3300 ("yes" only) if a safety is again the first scoring play Sunday. Can't say I recommend that.
This next statistic hugely surprised me: This is just the sixth time that two Super Bowl participants will play in the following regular season. It's the first time since 1997. The Super Bowl loser hasn't then beaten the winner the next year since Buffalo over Dallas in 1993.
These two remain the Super Bowl favorites at WagerWeb, with Denver at +400 to win and Seattle at +450. The exact matchup is priced at +550 at Sportsbook.ag, with Seahawks-Patriots at No. 2 at +750 (I think it should be Cincinnati as the No. 2 AFC team, not New England.)
Broncos at Seahawks Betting Story Lines
Neither club has looked Super Bowl-worthy quite yet. Denver is 2-0, but while it was largely crushing people last year on the way to setting the NFL record for points, the Broncos have beaten Indianapolis and Kansas City -- two 0-2 teams -- by just a touchdown each. The Colts score was a bit misleading as Indy scored two late garbage TDs. The Chiefs, meanwhile, had a fourth-and-2 at the Denver 2 with 15 seconds left to tie, but Alex Smith's pass to Dwayne Bowe was deflected by big Broncos lineman Terrance Knighton. My concern if I'm a Denver backer was that the Chiefs outgained the Broncos 380-325 and converted 11 of 16 third downs despite playing most of the game without star running back Jamaal Charles.
Manning could be on his way to a sixth NFL MVP Award as he leads the NFL with a 126.5 rating (that would be a record over a full season) and is tied with Chicago's Jay Cutler with six TD passes. Manning, who is three TD passes shy of 500 (Brett Favre's record is 508), will get back security blanket Wes Welker for this game. Welker's four-game suspension was lifted on Wednesday when the NFLPA and owners agreed on a new drug policy. Welker had eight catches for 84 yards in the Super Bowl.
This game has to mean more to Seattle as it obviously doesn't want to lose at home and certainly doesn't want to drop to 1-2. The Seahawks looked dominant in Week 1 vs. Green Bay but were shocked last week in San Diego 30-21. It was Seattle's first loss by more than a touchdown since 2011. The Bolts put up 377 yards and were 10-for-17 on third downs. They held the ball a whopping 42:15. What can we learn from that? The Chargers think they solved the Seattle defense by short passing the Seahawks to death. Philip Rivers was 28-of-37 for 284 yards and three TD passes to Antonio Gates. Rivers kept checking down and throwing underneath the coverage. His passer rating of 124.2 was the highest against the Seahawks since Week 8 of the 2010 season. I'm not ready to call that a trend yet. It was extremely hot for that game, and it seemed to really drain Seattle.
Broncos at Seahawks NFL Week 3 Betting Odds and Trends
At WagerWeb , the Seahawks are five-point favorites with a total of 48.5. The spread has moved a half point at most books toward Seattle, while the total has dropped a half point. The Broncos have failed to cover either of their first two games, both at home. They are 1-1 "over/under." Seattle is 1-1 against the spread, covering the lone home game. Both Seahawks games have gone over, a moderate surprise considering that defense. Denver is 4-1 ATS in its past five road games. The Seahawks are 5-0 ATS in their past five at home vs. teams with a winning record. They are 5-1 ATS in their past six after a loss. The over is 5-1 in Denver's past six in September. The under is 6-1 in Seattle's past seven against teams with a winning record.
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks Free Expert NFL Picks and Betting Predictions
This is the first time in 32 games that the Broncos haven't been favored. If Seattle hadn't lost last week I might have taken Denver and the points here. But the Seahawks have lost consecutive games only once under Wilson. Plus, that Chargers defeat likely was a wake-up call in that the Seahawks now know they are getting every team's best shot. Expect a nice bounce-back effort. Give the points and go "over" as the weather looks perfect.
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