NFL Quarterback Props Odds with Expert Betting Predictions
The best part about the NFL in August - the only good part, really, because the football is unwatchable and the training camp reports about how every player is great and sitting on a massive season are overdone - is that we get to speculate about what we expect from players, and at this point our opinion is as valid - and as right - as any other. So, let the speculation begin! Here's a look at individual QB props in the three big offensive categories:
Carson Wentz "Over/Under" 30.5: The over is favored here at -130, and it should be. Wentz threw 33 touchdowns last year despite playing in only 13 games. And it never looked like he was playing beyond himself, either - he looked like a legitimate MVP contender with clear and obvious skill. His knee is a concern, but he is coming back well and has reportedly looked good in very early camp action. Whether he can handle contact or not is a question, but the over is the sound play.
Jimmy Garoppolo o/u 23.5: Garoppolo played in only six games last year and had a TD pass in the first one despite making only two passing attempts. He wound up with seven overall, which put him on pace for in the neighborhood of 20 on a full season. Now he has had a training camp to get used to the team and the coaches, and the game should slow down for him again. If he has any talent then he should be able to approach and likely go over this number. The under, though, is somewhat surprisingly solidly favored at -125.
Kirk Cousins o/u 25.5: The under is again favored here at -125, and again I like the over. He had 27 last year and has moved to a better team with better coaching and better talent around him. I'm a believer in Cousins and am pretty bullish about him and his team this year.
Dak Prescott o/u 22.5: If Prescott were a stock then I would hurt my thumb because I would be pressing the sell button so hard. I am not a believer. He had 23 and 22 in his first two years, respectively, and I don't expect forward progress. I have heard the theory that he will be better off this year because he won't have to worry about keeping Dez Bryant and Jason Witten happy. That, of course, is stupid - having world-class receivers is rarely a detriment to a questionable QB. Very easy under. Very, very easy.
Matt Ryan o/u 4175.5: I'm not particularly a Ryan guy, but he had gone over this number five straight years before dipping to 4,095 last year. Changing offensive coordinators was rough for him, but his team is solid and he still has wear on his tires. The over, which is favored at -120, makes sense here.
Drew Brees o/u 4475.5: It would have been inconceivable even a year ago to see this number - he had gone over it comfortably seven straight years. But he had just 4,334 yards last year, and the offense didn't suffer for it. It was a shift of philosophy for the team, and with a 39-year-old QB at the helm it's a good bet that the shift wasn't a fleeting thing. The over is favored at -120, but I'd take the under.
Joe Flacco o/u 3225.5: Last year was his first full season since he was a rookie that he didn't go over this number. On the one hand, you could embrace the positive reports about his health and assume that Lamar Jackson will motivate him and take the over. I lean that way. On the other hand, you could say that since the Ravens spent a first-round pick on Jackson that they aren't going to have a lot of patience with their likely overpaid veteran. That's what the public thinks in greater numbers, and the under is favored at -120.
Eli Manning o/u 3949.5: This is basically free money - jump on the under at -120. Manning has lost his touch, his confidence, and the faith of his team, and his best receiver is an unhappy, volatile diva. He has been on a clear decline for three years and passed for just 3,468 last year. I will be all kinds of shocked if he comes anywhere near this number never mind goes over it.
Andy Dalton o/u 14.5: I'm very negative about Dalton and the Bengals this year, but I still have to take the under - which is attractive since the over is favored at -125. Dalton threw only 12 picks last year, and the threw seven and eight the two years before. He's a lot of things, and many of them aren't great, but as he has aged he has learned to take care of the ball reasonably well - at least in the regular season.
Deshaun Watson o/u 17.5: Watson threw just 204 passes last year and had eight picks, so he was on pace to have about 20 or so on a full season. Not ideal. But he was also a rookie, and he has shown that he's a smart and very talented guy, so if his knee holds up I expect a big step forward - and better protection of the ball as part of that. The over is favored at -120, and again I'll go against the masses and take the under.
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